Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Less heat though during the fall like this time.  We had a pretty bad drought a few years back(maybe ‘21?) all summer and into September.  90’s cooking everything.  That imo was worse than this.  But that’s just me. 

I hear that. I don’t think the heat means that much though in terms of impactful drought—I don’t recall any summer droughts causing this level of fire danger. Fortunately, that’s all coming to an end. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Guidance starting to hit on that second pinwheel rotation Friday night/Saturday. Looks like a wet, dry, wet next 3 days. 

[ariof]

50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, I do remember 04’s January frigid spell now that you say that..single digits for highs. 

And with basically 0 snow, the Charles froze solid and people were skating down it from Watertown to Boston.

[ineedsnow]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Guidance starting to hit on that second pinwheel rotation Friday night/Saturday. Looks like a wet, dry, wet next 3 days. 

even if it doesn't snow just get us out of this crap pattern

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I hear that. I don’t think the heat means that much though in terms of impactful drought—I don’t recall any summer droughts causing this level of fire danger. Fortunately, that’s all coming to an end. 

Really? Much higher sun angle, much More heat on an every day basis, means more evaporation of water in the reservoirs.  Our reservoirs here in town were lower a few years ago in that summer drought, than now.  
 

My parents lawn completely burned up that summer…and larger portions of it did not come back, had to be totally replanted. It’s Not even close to that now…And that’s due to much less heat being this was in the fall.
 

Fires have been bad for sure with this…but that summer one was more uncomfortable with 90 plus for weeks and weeks, and water levels here were worse than now.   But you’re right…it’s coming to an end…thank goodness. 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Nasty Tstorms entering south Jersey.  45,000 footers!

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah that new deepening was a risk for capture. 

not sure a nam solution can’t happen. marginal+ but in a dynamic vertical mixing with a burst of fall rates punching w right into that? … that could easily go over to soaked cotten balls out toward Orh and Rt 2

looks like a ccb. 

[jbenedet]

This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. 
 

This was the storm. 
 

This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it. 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah that new deepening was a risk for capture. 

not sure a nam solution can’t happen. marginal+ but in a dynamic vertical mixing with a burst of fall rates punching w right into that? … that could easily go over to soaked cotten balls out toward Orh and Rt 2

looks like a ccb. 

we CCB 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. 
 

This was the storm. 
 

This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it. 

Lol!   Get some rest…you’ll be alright. 

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. 
 

This was the storm. 
 

This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

I’m dying over here! This is hilarious. 

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. 
 

This was the storm. 
 

This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it. 

I have no words for you. Lololol

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I have no words for you. Lololol

We are back to normal when the pope starts with that stuff. Get ready. 

[MJO812]

Wow what a beautiful ridge out west on this gfs run. The amount of cold air is amazing thanks to the negative epo. Weenie run.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wow what a beautiful ridge out west on this gfs run. The amount of cold air is amazing thanks to the negative epo. Weenie run.

big storm next weekend but  the Thanksgivng storm is a bit south this run.. NYC gets some 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

big storm next weekend but  the Thanksgivng storm is a bit south this run.. NYC gets some 

Seeing these solutions right now is amazing.

[MJO812]

Negative NAO rising

Negative EPO

PNA also rising

This might be a nice period ahead

[ineedsnow]

just saw this that Great Barrington fire is huge 

[ineedsnow]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Negative NAO rising

Negative EPO

PNA also rising

This might be a nice period ahead

tons of cold on that run

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. 
 

This was the storm. 
 

This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it. 

Don’t worry Popala, there will be others sometime in the future….

[moneypitmike]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

just saw this that Great Barrington fire is huge 

 

Not for long.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Shocking the Friday night snow disappeared 

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

December but both were cold winters with January 2004 frigid!  December featured a relaxed pattern but a rather stormy period around the holidays in 2002.  The 2003 December storm was bigger but my recollection is the rest of the month was not so great.  We then had suppression for the heart of winter but you may have done ok south of the pike in CT.  NYC cleaned up in 2003-04.

The 2 storms in the first half of Dec 2003 totaled 37", more than half of the season's snowfall.  Only one event with more than 5" in Jan-April.  Jan '04 had 7 maxima between 1 and -8 but only 7.7" snow/0.57" precip.  The -7 max on the 14th was recorded at 9 PM on the 13th; the afternoon max was -11.

[Snowcrazed71]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shocking the Friday night snow disappeared 

Ok... What's also shocking is the amount of rain we're supposed to get has gone up. 1 to 1.5" in now?

The for Friday night with something that just popped up last night it was very small. There is going to be some snow just north of us and just west of us of course, but we've been out of the Chance of snow here in Connecticut with this storm. 

 

[Modfan2]

Looking like potentially only a .50” here in E CT, will help with the fire threat but it will dry quickly Sat and into next week and the rain will give everyone the green light to start burning

[ineedsnow]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shocking the Friday night snow disappeared 

some  models still have something .. just depends on temps and how heavy the precip is,,, enjoy your 1 to 2 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs cancelled winter 

[CoastalWx]

Euro too 

[CoastalWx]

Regarding this weekend, as usual occluded systems with random s/w’s are hard to nail down. Definitely a chance of a coating from the Monads to CT hills maybe some spots a little more. Just depends on where and how second low forms. Sort of favor north, but not all of the question it wraps in further south.