Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Check around . You’ll

see it if you took off the snow goggles for 2 minutes 

lowest I can find for your area is 0.9 and that's the 18z RGEM everything else is 1 to 2

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some of the Hi res is now well under an inch for much of the region . May it not be correct .

[brooklynwx99]

[ineedsnow]

Mount Shasta is the place to be

This Afternoon

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Steady temperature around 8. Wind chill values as low as -28. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 100 mph, with gusts as high as 125 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Temperature rising to around 15 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -25. Windy, with a southwest wind 90 to 95 mph decreasing to 80 to 85 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -18. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 75 mph, with gusts as high as 110 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 55 to 65 mph. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Friday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 19. Windy, with a south wind 55 to 60 mph increasing to 65 to 70 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 8. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He may be a herpes fan

[ineedsnow]

Tornado warning on the west coast of Washington right now.. When is the last time that happened in November..  I'll say never 

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Mt. Tolland is the place to be

This Afternoon

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Steady temperature around 8. Wind chill values as low as -28. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 100 mph, with gusts as high as 125 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Temperature rising to around 15 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -25. Windy, with a southwest wind 90 to 95 mph decreasing to 80 to 85 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -18. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 75 mph, with gusts as high as 110 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 55 to 65 mph. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Friday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 19. Windy, with a south wind 55 to 60 mph increasing to 65 to 70 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 8. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible

Fixed.

[ORH_wxman]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Your election prediction and information during Election Day was incredible. Great stuff. Unbelievably accurate 

Thanks man. Being a truth-seeker isn't easy on that topic....my style is def more suited for the weather side.

 

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not going to do much of anything Friday night. Sun comes out for part of the day at least 

I wouldn't dismiss Friday night so handily....I'm not expecting some huge surprise snowstorm, but there could def be a burst of moderate or even heavy snow over elevated interior with that deep ULL moving just underneath us. I think temps would mostly prohibit any accumulation (except again, higher terrain if we cna get a moderate burst or better)...but first flakes are possible for many. Could even be a nasty cold steady rain on the coastal plain for a few hours friday night.

 

We'll see, but unstable atmosphere with a bit of inflow should always be watched a bit.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Tornado warning on the west coast of Washington right now.. When is the last time that happened in November..  I'll say never 

I don’t think it’s too totally uncommon 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks man. Being a truth-seeker isn't easy on that topic....my style is def more suited for the weather side.

 

I wouldn't dismiss Friday night so handily....I'm not expecting some huge surprise snowstorm, but there could def be a burst of moderate or even heavy snow over elevated interior with that deep ULL moving just underneath us. I think temps would mostly prohibit any accumulation (except again, higher terrain if we cna get a moderate burst or better)...but first flakes are possible for many. Could even be a nasty cold steady rain on the coastal plain for a few hours friday night.

 

We'll see, but unstable atmosphere with a bit of inflow should always be watched a bit.

I'm hoping for a surprise but not counting on it. some models are making me go hmmm though

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don’t think it’s too totally uncommon 

really in November?  that surprises me

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks man. Being a truth-seeker isn't easy on that topic....my style is def more suited for the weather side.

 

I wouldn't dismiss Friday night so handily....I'm not expecting some huge surprise snowstorm, but there could def be a burst of moderate or even heavy snow over elevated interior with that deep ULL moving just underneath us. I think temps would mostly prohibit any accumulation (except again, higher terrain if we cna get a moderate burst or better)...but first flakes are possible for many. Could even be a nasty cold steady rain on the coastal plain for a few hours friday night.

 

We'll see, but unstable atmosphere with a bit of inflow should always be watched a bit.

Ineedsnow is all freaking in . Issuing a WSW 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Your election prediction and information during Election Day was incredible. Great stuff. Unbelievably accurate 

Thanks bro. We tried to tell em it would be a landslide. Many, many times 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ineedsnow is all freaking in . Issuing a WSW 

lol not yet.. just watching for now.. But some models look fun.. if it starts looking better tomorrow I'll be excited 

[weatherwiz]

With how intense the systems they can get in the Fall they can get some decent instability along the coast. IIRC the west coast states (CA, WA, OR) their peak is usually fall. 

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

really in November?  that surprises me

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Earlier because in early November, you were writing off first half of December too. That only changed as the modeling started to show signs of a change in early December.  Now the change has moved up some to very end of November. 

I said the window was into early December. Yeesh.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks bro. We tried to tell em it would be a landslide. Many, many times 

Just like the Cowboys last several games. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Just like the Cowboys last several games. 

I actually told a bunch of these guys here in our text group I was expecting a very ugly Dallas season this year. They’ll verify that . I worried about the run defense, no RB, and lack of depth at WR. Unfortunately they’re even worse than I thought and  I didn’t expect them to be better than .500

[dryslot]

Dak going down didn't help the cause but there's a lot more issues on the team then just him.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I said the window was into early December. Yeesh.

Not at first you didn’t…especially in our text group. You were selling the first half at first. That’s exactly why I was pushing back on you..because it was too far out at the time to do that.  But We’ll leave it at that.  It’s all good. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is wild. You’d never think this would happen to this extent in SNE . So many of these all over . 
https://x.com/massdfs/status/1859379360223916470?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Typhoon Tip]

there it is … nice moderate flat wave event 28/29th 

scary to suggest this for an 18z gfs run … talkin over a week away, but that really is the best fit construct for the type pattering at that time. 

I mentioned this earlier … not the euro, but stretched system type yes. Unless there’s some fundamental changes in the pattern foot. hell it is 8.5 days out.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

there it is … nice moderate flat wave event 28/29th 

scary to suggest this for an 18z gfs run … talkin over a week away, but that really is the best fit construct for the type pattering at that time. 

I mentioned this earlier … not the euro, but stretched system type yes. Unless there’s some fundamental changes in the pattern foot. hell it is 8.5 days out.  

One thing very nice synoptically about that setup is the TPV stretch lobe to our north and northeast. It really acts as a brick wall holding in a pretty legit airmass. That’s obviously key this early in the season to realizing any significant winter threat. 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is wild. You’d never think this would happen to this extent in SNE . So many of these all over . 
https://x.com/massdfs/status/1859379360223916470?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I dare say this has been an epic “flash” drought. Far more impactful imo than a summer one where there’s little precipitation, but daily dews are in the 60s or 70s.

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully next week pans out into something, whether it’s rain, snow, or a mix. It would even be better if this storm, plus next week are indicators of more active times but after next week we very well could go back into a quieter regime. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I dare say this has been an epic “flash” drought. Far more impactful imo than a summer one where there’s little precipitation, but daily dews are in the 60s or 70s.

We’ll have to see how the winter precip looks 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing very nice synoptically about that setup is the TPV stretch lobe to our north and northeast. It really acts as a brick wall holding in a pretty legit airmass. That’s obviously key this early in the season to realizing any significant winter threat. 

For those who like visuals…you can see what I mean on the H5 plot here. Stretched out TPV lobe to our north and northeast which really holds that high in by acting as a brick wall and forcing the confluence with the trough moving eastward. That look has been largely absent the last couple winters. 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I dare say this has been an epic “flash” drought. Far more impactful imo than a summer one where there’s little precipitation, but daily dews are in the 60s or 70s.

Less heat though during the fall like this time.  We had a pretty bad drought a few years back(maybe ‘21?) all summer and into September.  90’s cooking everything.  That imo was worse than this.  But that’s just me. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Fixed.

Yup, Mt. Tolland rakes on those S-SW wind events.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I actually told a bunch of these guys here in our text group I was expecting a very ugly Dallas season this year. They’ll verify that . I worried about the run defense, no RB, and lack of depth at WR. Unfortunately they’re even worse than I thought and  I didn’t expect them to be better than .500

I have no room to mock anyone as a Dolphins fan.