Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[TheBudMan]

@weathafella getting ready to chuck muth fuuuukkkkkas     LETS GOOOOOOOOO    

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

storm vista is only a couple minutes faster pivotal is out already to

good staring point .  We can always adjust upward.

[moneypitmike]

6 years ago today had a somewhat different vibe.

 

 

[FXWX]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it is toast overall. And I also said like two weeks ago the very end into early December offered a chance for the interior at least because models had a window. I still think after the early December window is May get ugly until the last week or so.  Happy to be wrong.

There has been chatter for several weeks now that a window would open for a threat either right at the end of the month or very early in December.  Folks who are on here daily should have seen that discussed multiple times from multiple posters.  I mentioned this to my clients at least 3 weeks ago.  I thought the early November warmth would linger a bit longer, but the colder look to very late November very early December is no surprise, nor is the potential for our first true winter threat.  Right now, it appears the late Nov/early Dec calls are right on the mark.  The question then becomes is this one and done deal that quickly revert back to an AB pattern?   I did not have much hope for the mid-December period and have been favoring an AB trend after the early December cold period.  There is some support for it to linger a bit longer than I first thought, but I would give it a couple of more eps runs.  I noted the other day, I am not a big fan of early December being a great indicator of things to come.  I'd be happy if just the position of the modeled high-pressure system next weekend were to be something that gets repeated a few times this upcoming winter.

[dendrite]

It’s really bittersweet for me to see Will posting again. Part of me wants it to remain 70° while he’s posting about the Cowboys 2025 draft on the internet somewhere.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we'd be happy with anything at this point....nevermind the Euro solution of threatening to break November snowfall records that were set back in the November 26-27, 1898 storm.

Or November 22-23, 1943 in NNE.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

storm vista is only a couple minutes faster pivotal is out already to

Suppression depression already?

[brooklynwx99]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like that there's no real sign of breaking down the -WPO/EPO in the extended range on ensembles. That's going to be a key on whether December can sustain some good cold and snow chances or if we just get a 7-10 day transient period from near T-day to Dec 5th or so.

the equatorward jet extension keeps an Aleutian trough in place... it actually strengthens as the run goes on

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the equatorward jet extension keeps an Aleutian trough in place... it actually strengthens as the run goes on

Yeah this is why I’m questioning whether we revert to a 2-3 week torch after early December. I could def see a relaxation but if that WPO/EPO is going to keep reloading, then it would be difficult to remain AN for long stretches.

We’ll see though…we’ve been faked out before on some of this longer range N PAC stuff the last few winters but at least we already have the good WPO/EPO in place this time. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’s really bittersweet for me to see Will posting again. Part of me wants it to remain 70° while he’s posting about the Cowboys 2025 draft on the internet somewhere.

Or posting empirical-based election predictions in OT while simultaneously trying to avoid getting dogpiled. 
 

At least there’s a pattern worth tracking. More than we can say for 80% of the last two winters. 

[ineedsnow]

I would lose it if this happened.. looks like there will be a narrow band of fun though 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I would lose it if this happened.. looks like there will be a narrow band of fun though 

Sell.  

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I would lose it if this happened.. looks like there will be a narrow band of fun though 

The important part about this system is the rain.  If you see a few flakes..call it a win. 

[ineedsnow]

Happy Thanksgiving on the 18z GFS

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If December is wintry and snowy overall, then happy to be wrong. There is nobody else right now happier to be wrong. At least the pattern looks decent to start the month.

That period at the end of next week is probably the best look we’ve had in 2 years. I’m skeptical given how early in the season it is, but there is a chance 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z gfs is a nice thanksgiving night into friday snowstorm.

 

That would erase a lot of the sins of the last couple of years 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z gfs is a nice thanksgiving night into friday snowstorm.

 

That would erase a lot of the sins of the last couple of years 

It sure would.  

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is mostly south of here. it would be nice to even just whiten the ground a bit

This time of year I'm not greedy, just some flakes in the air is a welcome sight. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Models backed off on rain amounts especially in SNE. Now around .60 or so hi res. Better than nothing but had a feeling that would happen. And they have some sun on Friday while it snows to our west 

[cleetussnow]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z gfs is a nice thanksgiving night into friday snowstorm.

 

That would erase a lot of the sins of the last couple of years 

Indeed. But likely kick off some new ones

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models backed off on brain amounts especially in SNE. Now around .60 or so hi res. Better than nothing but had a feeling that would happen. And they have some sun on Friday while it snows to our west 

Enjoy your 1-2” and several raw fall days. 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models backed off on brain amounts especially in SNE. Now around .60 or so hi res. Better than nothing but had a feeling that would happen. And they have some sun on Friday while it snows to our west 

What models backed off and only show that? Seems on track to me 

[Snowcrazed71]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models backed off on brain amounts especially in SNE. Now around .60 or so hi res. Better than nothing but had a feeling that would happen. And they have some sun on Friday while it snows to our west 

What in God's name are you talking about. Not that we're going to get a copious amount of Rain, but as of tonight, they're still showing anywhere from point .9" to 1.25" in through the state. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Is there a fire nearby me? Or just a strong inversion? Fire smell real strong. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or posting empirical-based election predictions in OT while simultaneously trying to avoid getting dogpiled. 
 

At least there’s a pattern worth tracking. More than we can say for 80% of the last two winters. 

Your election prediction and information during Election Day was incredible. Great stuff. Unbelievably accurate 

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro looking better here Friday night but it's close

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Enjoy your 1-2” and several raw fall days. 

Some of the Hi res is now well under an inch for much of the region . May it not be correct .

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro looking better here Friday night but it's close

It’s not going to do much of anything Friday night. Sun comes out for part of the day at least 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

What models backed off and only show that? Seems on track to me 

Check around . You’ll

see it if you took off the snow goggles for 2 minutes 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a flash drought these last 3 months have been .  If it’s a relatively dry winter like a lot are thinking.. going into next spring and summer will be bad news.