Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

now that's a wow run holy****  

Scott gonna be eating crow…said November was toast.  This would be some incredible irony if even 1/4 of that played out.  Gotta be careful of those 4 week progs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Scott gonna be eating crow…said November was toast.  This would be some incredible irony if even 1/4 of that played out.  Gotta be careful of those 4 week progs. 

Dude, really....its the last day of the month

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Read my mind...if its there this weekend, then I'll jump...but I am a really tough sell pre 12/1...especially in light of recent month of December.

Past December's do not influence or correlate to this December.  Its not just cuz.  I know - keep the weenies tucked but there will be meteorology in play.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Past December's do not influence or correlate to this December.  Its not just cuz.  I know - keep the weenies tucked but there will be meteorology in play.

Well, when the past several have occurred within same MC dominant regime they do.

[cleetussnow]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we'd be happy with anything at this point....nevermind the Euro solution of threatening to break November snowfall records that were set back in the November 26-27, 1898 storm.

Whoa whoa whoa…lets not be too hasty abandoning a record snowstorm on the euro. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, really....it’s the last day of the month

Doesn’t matter.  It’s still November.  

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, really....its the last day of the month

Yeah it is toast overall. And I also said like two weeks ago the very end into early December offered a chance for the interior at least because models had a window. I still think after the early December window is May get ugly until the last week or so.  Happy to be wrong.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Doesn’t matter.  It’s still November.  

Clown 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Doesn’t matter.  It’s still November.  

You are absurd. The month in the aggregate was a dry torch...that is the point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it is toast overall. And I also said like two weeks ago the very end into early December offered a chance for the interior at least because models had a window. I still think after the early December window is May get ugly until the last week or so.  Happy to be wrong.

Yea, same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Congrats, Tip

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are absurd. The month in the aggregate was a dry torch...that is the point.

it's looked warm and dry for quite some time. Nov was a very high confidence forecast IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it's looked warm and dry for quite some time. Nov was a very high confidence forecast IMO

Right....which is why I don't get the semantics crap.

[CoastalWx]

If December is wintry and snowy overall, then happy to be wrong. There is nobody else right now happier to be wrong. At least the pattern looks decent to start the month.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Uh-oh, clowns are out and about. And so now is this clown.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If December is wintry and snowy overall, then happy to be wrong. There is nobody else right now happier to be wrong. At least the pattern looks decent to start the month.

No thanks. I'd like a few more of today please. 

 

[weathafella]

Narcan to the rescue of bipolar weenies 

[HoarfrostHubb]

First NARCAN of the season... thanks Ray

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Clown 

I’m busting balls.   But we had Scott and others jumping off bridges a few weeks ago in the first days of November…saying all of November was shot, and we’ll into the first half of December too…and that ain’t no lie. 
my only point, was that back a few weeks ago, I said chill out , we don’t know what the next 4-6 weeks could bring.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m busting balls.   But we had Scott and others jumping off bridges a few weeks ago in the first days of November…saying all of November was shot, and we’ll into the first half of December too…and that ain’t no lie. 
my only point, was that back a few weeks ago, I said chill out , we don’t know what the next 4-6 weeks could bring.  

You do realize having November shot in SNE is simply climo, right? The month averages like 2-3" over the interior....

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You do realize having November shot in SNE is simply climo, right? The month averages like 2-3" over the interior....

lol, you’re not talking to Kevin Ray, of course I do.  I wasn’t expecting much of anything anyway.   
 

What I’m simply saying, is that Scott and I had a big back and forth in very early November.  He was distraught over the nothing but warm look for all of November, and even into first half of December.  And I tried to say, let’s not get too worried about the end of November, and first 10 days of December at this time, due to it being 4-6 weeks off, and that things could certainly change(like we are seeing starting to happen now).   And I was told at that time that there was pretty much no chance of a change.    

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m busting balls.   But we had Scott and others jumping off bridges a few weeks ago in the first days of November…saying all of November was shot, and we’ll into the first half of December too…and that ain’t no lie. 
my only point, was that back a few weeks ago, I said chill out , we don’t know what the next 4-6 weeks could bring.  

Well November is shot. And yes after that early December period I said it would be shot until end of month. 
 

And yes we do know how to forecast long range. Otherwise people would not be paid to do it. Sure you can be off a week or two which is why the batting average is lower compared to 5-7 day forecast. But there is skill. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol, you’re not talking to Kevin Ray, of course I do.  I wasn’t expecting much of anything anyway.   
 

What I’m simply saying, is that Scott and I had a big back and forth in very early November.  He was distraught over the nothing but warm look for all of November, and even into first half of December.  And I tried to say, let’s not get too worried about the end of November, and first 10 days of December at this time, due to it being 4-6 weeks off, and that things could certainly change(like we are seeing starting to happen now).   And I was told at that time that there was pretty much no chance of a change.    

Well, if he said that, then I would agree....the original focus was on November. I still think in the aggregate December will be warm...it just looks better if we cash in on that brief window to start the month.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well November is shot. And yes after that early December period I said it would be shot until end of month. 
 

And yes we do know how to forecast long range. Otherwise people would not be paid to do it. Sure you can be off a week or two which is why the batting average is lower compared to 5-7 day forecast. But there is skill. 

I never said there wasn’t skill. You are putting words in my mouth.  You were jumping off the Tobin in early November.  I advised you to chill some, cuz things could change. They are now changing earlier than you expected. That’s the point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am still willing to bet that Dec 1-15 averages above normal and probably significantly so.

[WinterWolf]

Sure, it could all go to shit too next week too. But now, it looks like thibgs are changing some. 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I never said there wasn’t skill. You are putting words in my mouth.  You were jumping off the Tobin in early November.  I advised you to chill some, cuz things could change. They are now changing earlier than you expected. That’s the point. 

Earlier? Beer?

[ORH_wxman]

I like that there's no real sign of breaking down the -WPO/EPO in the extended range on ensembles. That's going to be a key on whether December can sustain some good cold and snow chances or if we just get a 7-10 day transient period from near T-day to Dec 5th or so.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. I was just joking to Scott further up in the thread in when the last time we saw a good high in eastern Ontario and western Quebec was? I can’t remember one at all recently. I think maybe the Feb 2023 event but my god, it’s been like pulling teeth to get one. 
 

Meanwhile, the weather gods were tossing them out like Halloween candy in the 2000s/2010s. I remember some of those SWFEs when it looked bad a few days out and then all of the sudden inside of 96 hours, “hey that high north of CAR has really trended stronger. We might get a warning front end thump”. Recently, Quebec highs have trended over the Flemish cap. 

Lol...  thumbing through the KOCIN book(s), it's all about eastern Canadian confluence & high-pressure centers sitting off to our north!   If this is in anyway a hint of the winter trend, I'll take it...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Earlier? Beer?

Earlier because in early November, you were writing off first half of December too. That only changed as the modeling started to show signs of a change in early December.  Now the change has moved up some to very end of November.