Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[brooklynwx99]

48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When was the last time we saw a high in eastern Ontario/western Quebec when a system approaches us from the southwest?

really nice -EPO/-WPO pattern. there's confluence as the TPV elongates in the 50/50 region which would lock in that high verbatim

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah... not to be a dink, but ..when a i wrote about the double potential (~28th then again ~2nd) earlier, i mentioned the 06z had stepped back ... but that i was fairly confident, based up recent model performance for that 10 day period out there, that it would return. 

that feature is showing up strongly in the eps - albeit on the 00z run it was more of an eastern lakes cutter with perhaps torpid commitment to secondary - but enough to sense there's some residual bl cold/resistance forcing that to happen.    however, the euro operational was nix on the 28ther and selling the latter 2nd much harder on the 00z run cycle.  it'll be interesting to see if the euro starts to reverse those - or perhaps carries both ... on the 12z run.

[Typhoon Tip]

probably a day ... day and half to thread

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch for some unstable soundings on late Friday night and into early Saturday. GFS actually has some nice bursts of heavy wet snow even into lower elevations of SNE. But these are the types of things you won't really be able to get a good handle on until much closer. But when it's really cold aloft and you have 8C/km ML lapse rate in a saturated sounding, doesn't take much to get a few bursts.

 

commented about this the other day too -  watch that new deepening low passing e of bos friday night.  it's not part of the nyc cyclone but is a new committed development.  there's signs that western arc could 'fill in' - perhaps assisted by the instability of those tanked mid level colder heights like you're saying.  yup

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I remember them being everywhere in the 80s when I was a kid. Drifts of butts along every sidewalk. 

you're gonna need another vomit emoji -

 

[HimoorWx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The pics of the fire at Blue Hills are pretty crazy. They had to do a large back burn to try to contain it. Wild stuff. 

Fortunately not as windy today. I see Hillside Street and Chickatawbut Road are closed from Houghton's Pond to Route 37 until Friday. At least that will keep the smokers and hunters out! 

[MJO812]

Euro has a snowstorm also like the gfs

[Typhoon Tip]

the icon has a bit of a stinger look early sat     ... i'll go ahead a this post but, i'm not really sure that potential should be ignored.  there's a tendency to start conserving more deep layer mechanics with this closing system, nuanced in recent guidance - there's always a bit of variability headaches with these. 

the icon's trying to say light to moderate cold rain a 534 dm thickness at 12z saturday at the sw arc of a wrapped ccb, around that new deepening... i find that to be warm biased in ptype given that totality

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... not to be a dink, but ..when a i wrote about the double potential (~28th then again ~2nd) earlier, i mentioned the 06z had stepped back ... but that i was fairly confident, based up recent model performance for that 10 day period out there, that it would return. 

that feature is showing up strongly in the eps - albeit on the 00z run it was more of an eastern lakes cutter with perhaps torpid commitment to secondary - but enough to sense there's some residual bl cold/resistance forcing that to happen.    however, the euro operational was nix on the 28ther and selling the latter 2nd much harder on the 00z run cycle.  it'll be interesting to see if the euro starts to reverse those - or perhaps carries both ... on the 12z run.

Read my mind...if its there this weekend, then I'll jump...but I am a really tough sell pre 12/1...especially in light of recent month of December.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has a snowstorm also like the gfs

that would definitely work 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

When was the last time we saw a high in eastern Ontario/western Quebec when a system approaches us from the southwest?

3 years ago lol

[ineedsnow]

Euro is a beast next weekend 

[ineedsnow]

18 plus on stormVista maps but we know those aren't perfect 

[ineedsnow]

now that's a wow run holy****  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

now that's a wow run holy****  

Dude, 'cmon...I wanted to wait on the weenie subscription...you are trying a guy's resolve.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, 'cmon...I wanted to wait on the weene subsription...you are trying a guy's resolve.

storm vista is only a couple minutes faster pivotal is out already to

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

storm vista is only a couple minutes faster pivotal is out already to

Miller B-money shot, right in Kev's peepers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

People just scavening for T-Day leftovers in snowdrifts.

[WxWatcher007]

Clown maps aside, it’s a beautiful storm and pattern evolution. It’s nice to go into met winter with some legitimate (favorable pattern) hope. 

[DJln491]

People would hate that storm, all their in-laws that came for T-giving wouldn't be able to leave. 

[ineedsnow]

48 hr 12z EPS mean is 6 to 8 here so must be some good members

[FXWX]

31 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18 plus on stormVista maps but we know those aren't perfect 

Given the time of the year; folks would be happy with one half or even one third of the Euro numbers!!!

[ORH_wxman]

D8-9 EPS is definitely favorable on the synoptics....this isn't a deep full-wavelength event, but it's pretty classic for an early season redeveloper....note the relatively shallow shortwave over the center of the country and you have west-based -NAO weakness and a strong 50/50 sig. You'll need all of those this early in the season to hold the high in place otherwise you just won't be able to overcome the antecedent warmth offshore this early. What we don't have a stout western ridge, which is why this probably would come in at a bit of a shallow angle....so you'll need that confluence.

But at least the synoptics are there. We'll see if it still holds in another few days.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Given the time of the year; folks would be happy with one half or even one third of the Euro numbers!!!

Yeah I think we'd be happy with anything at this point....nevermind the Euro solution of threatening to break November snowfall records that were set back in the November 26-27, 1898 storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we'd be happy with anything at this point....nevermind the Euro solution of threatening to break November snowfall records that were set back in the November 26-27, 1898 storm.

there was discussion like this back before the 1989 event if memory serves.

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we'd be happy with anything at this point....nevermind the Euro solution of threatening to break November snowfall records that were set back in the November 26-27, 1898 storm.

I would never think anything is a lock and I'd bet on Euro being a bit drunk.  But I always look for classic check list items to boost confidence.  Right off the bat, it is sweet seeing that high pressure system modeled location.  No high pressure center or a poorly placed one have been the bane of recent winters 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, FXWX said:

I would never think anything is a lock and I'd bet on Euro being a bit drunk.  But I always look for classic check list items to boost confidence.  Right off the bat, it is sweet seeing that high pressure system modeled location.  No high pressure center or a poorly placed one have been the bane of recent winters 

Yes. I was just joking to Scott further up in the thread in when the last time we saw a good high in eastern Ontario and western Quebec was? I can’t remember one at all recently. I think maybe the Feb 2023 event but my god, it’s been like pulling teeth to get one. 
 

Meanwhile, the weather gods were tossing them out like Halloween candy in the 2000s/2010s. I remember some of those SWFEs when it looked bad a few days out and then all of the sudden inside of 96 hours, “hey that high north of CAR has really trended stronger. We might get a warning front end thump”. Recently, Quebec highs have trended over the Flemish cap. 

[Typhoon Tip]

i'd even settle for just getting cold boundary layers - that's really the barest necessity.  highs ideally placed is obviously optimal but failing that, a cold residual air mass with a low running by underneath can get the job done. 

i mean, we haven't really had much success even 'threading the needle' s either. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Read my mind...if its there this weekend, then I'll jump...but I am a really tough sell pre 12/1...especially in light of recent month of December.

ha!  yeah, guess we can say our suspicion over the euro reversing the 28ther and the 2nd was the right idea, huh.

but i'm not sold or saying that the 2nd is dead, either.  i suspect this 28/29th, 12z dopamine may modulate to more of an open wave event.  doesn't mean it's has to be a piece of shit either.  it's just that the closed deep juggernaut thing is iffy in that general hemispheric look - flow's too longitudinal with flatter l/w structures to see that thing move through like water going around a stone in a stream like that.  anyway, i could see both system's being legit but conserving that super synoptic structure, the cyclic dimes might be a better fit.

lot's of time ... frankly, i'm still higher confidence for storm activation like several days ago - that's not changed.  i'm just concerned about cold and whether that aspect gets attenuated as the time(s) near... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

F5 is going to have SV speed of availability rather shortly...FYI.