Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes we will need a lot more to fill the reservoirs and lakes back up a bit, but the fire danger will be massively reduced after this event.

Yes, fire danger extinguishing and drought busting are two entirely discrete concepts.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, fire danger extinguishing and drought busting are two entirely discrete concepts.

Yep...to totally bust the drought, we'll need a very juicy winter. Finger's crossed we get it and most of it is frozen.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes we will need a lot more to fill the reservoirs and lakes back up a bit, but the fire danger will be massively reduced after this event.

that's why i put the drought term in quotes in that snarkism - i wasn't gonna get into survey gunk

[CoastalWx]

The pics of the fire at Blue Hills are pretty crazy. They had to do a large back burn to try to contain it. Wild stuff. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The pics of the fire at Blue Hills are pretty crazy. They had to do a large back burn to try to contain it. Wild stuff. 

This area looks to be a relative min for rain at the end of the week, not sure a half inch will be enough to drop all the fire concerns here; especially if it’s dry for a week after 

[tamarack]

18 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

Interesting, seems like the cold was centered more towards NNE .. ORH put up departures of -3.8 / -9.5 / -3.2 for that stretch 

Fake cold.  We had 3 sunny and calm days after a 12.4" dump.  That storm was cold rain at ORH and the lows on 6-8 were 23/18/18 there, 1/-8/-8 here.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

hate that as well. It's basically littering. Also if you want to smoke those stinky sticks at least have the decency to carry around a can to put the butts into, but I guess that's too hard for some people

 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Anybody with any common sense knows the fire threat is toast after today.  So I agree with you completely. 

 

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The pics of the fire at Blue Hills are pretty crazy. They had to do a large back burn to try to contain it. Wild stuff. 

I’m not sure what the source was for yesterday’s fire, but I was told we had three others. 

Two were people open burning in their backyard.

One guy threw his cigarette into a bush and the whole thing went up almost immediately—in front of one of our fire stations. 

Crazy stuff

[mreaves]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This area looks to be a relative min for rain at the end of the week, not sure a half inch will be enough to drop all the fire concerns here; especially if it’s dry for a week after 

Well, if the past is any indicator, you have just meh'd yourself to a 1.5" jackpot.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep...to totally bust the drought, we'll need a very juicy winter. Finger's crossed we get it and most of it is frozen.

The only problem with that is we will have to wait for the April snowmelt to receive any benefits.  But when that dense 4' pack goes....look out!

[dendrite]

People still smoke?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The only problem with that is we will have to wait for the April snowmelt to receive any benefits.  But when that dense 4' pack goes....look out!

No...we'd probably benefit like within a week after it falls.

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

People still smoke?

Kinda funny when you run into someone who still smokes (tobacco at least) these days, see someone lighting up and its an instant double take, WTF moment

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Kinda funny when you run into someone who still smokes (tobacco at least) these days, see someone lighting up and its an instant double take, WTF moment

True-and at $12 a pack hard to imagine how anyone affords it.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Kinda funny when you run into someone who still smokes (tobacco at least) these days, see someone lighting up and its an instant double take, WTF moment

I remember them being everywhere in the 80s when I was a kid. Drifts of butts along every sidewalk. 

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

People still smoke?

It’s wild to think about as a kid you’d go into a restaurant and asked “Smoking or non-smoking”… that wasn’t all that long ago.

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, weathafella said:

For this part of the world, this dry period has rivaled the drought of the early 60s that tamarack alludes to.  However, in my years of living in southern California, this is nothing.  One year when I was living there (1976-91) the city of LA went 7 months without a trace of rain.

The past 3 months might be drier than any 3-month period in the 1960s.  However, that earlier drought lasted 4 years.
NYC numbers:
1963 - 34.28"  5th lowest, only the 4.4" dump in early Nov avoided a new record.
1964 - 32.99"  Lowest (at the time) by 0.73", now 2nd
1965 - 26.09"   Four years later some VA sites had that much in 5 hours from the remains of Camille.
1966 - Jan-Aug 19.79", only 0.74" more than J-A '65, and considerably warmer (met summer 4.8 hotter).
Sept 21, 1966:  5.54"   Drought was over though we didn't know it until many months after.

GYX precip map this morning shows 1.5-2" for almost all their CWA.  Yesterday they were thinking 0.5-1".  We'll see.  We're heading to SNJ on 11/26, returning 12/3 or 4.  Might see flakes there before seeing any here.  

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

True-and at $12 a pack hard to imagine how anyone affords it.

Yikes!  In the 1950s my mom could buy 4 cartons for that. 
(Unfortunately.  At age 55 after 40 years of 2-3 packs/day, she was diagnosed with emphysema.  She quit cold turkey but gradually lost lung function until passing at age 70.  Her 2 non-smoking sisters lived into their 90s.)

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s wild to think about as a kid you’d go into a restaurant and asked “Smoking or non-smoking”… that wasn’t all that long ago.

About 20-25 years ago that was. Remember coming home at night from being out, and your clothes reeked of smoke from the clubs. Was so happy when they banned it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

I’m not sure what the source was for yesterday’s fire, but I was told we had three others. 

Two were people open burning in their backyard.

One guy threw his cigarette into a bush and the whole thing went up almost immediately—in front of one of our fire stations. 

Crazy stuff

Yea. Dumb times.
 

We have a Fire brewing close by this morning. Not sure where but we smelled the smoke dropping the kids off at the bus and could still smell it in town. 

[tunafish]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I remember them being everywhere in the 80s when I was a kid. Drifts of butts along every sidewalk. 

We just did a service project picking up trash on Old Orchard Beach.  We picked up over 700 butts, in less than 2 hours, covering about a mile of beach.  Couldn't believe it.

Also, as a former smoker and former vaper, vaping made me feel much worse.  I could feel the cancer literally forming in my mouth.  Quit that shit in a hurry.  This was 9 years ago, so maybe things are different now.

[ORH_wxman]

Gotta watch for some unstable soundings on late Friday night and into early Saturday. GFS actually has some nice bursts of heavy wet snow even into lower elevations of SNE. But these are the types of things you won't really be able to get a good handle on until much closer. But when it's really cold aloft and you have 8C/km ML lapse rate in a saturated sounding, doesn't take much to get a few bursts.

 

[CoastalWx]

That period after T day into the weekend has had a few weenie solutions. 

[ORH_wxman]

Congrats @scooter on the GFS for 11/29-30

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch for some unstable soundings on late Friday night and into early Saturday. GFS actually has some nice bursts of heavy wet snow even into lower elevations of SNE. But these are the types of things you won't really be able to get a good handle on until much closer. But when it's really cold aloft and you have 8C/km ML lapse rate in a saturated sounding, doesn't take much to get a few bursts.

 

Some inflow still as the ULL wraps around. Gfs verbatim likes Kevin’s area.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats @scooter on the GFS for 11/29-30

lol I’ll sell the clowns, but models have been hinting at something lurking anyways. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That period after T day into the weekend has had a few weenie solutions. 

When was the last time we saw a high in eastern Ontario/western Quebec when a system approaches us from the southwest?

[ineedsnow]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta watch for some unstable soundings on late Friday night and into early Saturday. GFS actually has some nice bursts of heavy wet snow even into lower elevations of SNE. But these are the types of things you won't really be able to get a good handle on until much closer. But when it's really cold aloft and you have 8C/km ML lapse rate in a saturated sounding, doesn't take much to get a few bursts.

 

GFS is mostly south of here. it would be nice to even just whiten the ground a bit

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is mostly south of here. it would be nice to even just whiten the ground a bit

The system is long occluded by the time that ULL moves south of us so it's gonna be favoring different areas on almost every run. I don't think there's much accumulation potential but the higher terrain near you and even down through ORH and NE CT could see a coating if they get into a heavier burst or two. But right now, it's mostly "first flakes" novelty potential here. Without an arctic airmass, it's pretty marginal....esp lower elevations. Type of thing where it;s 38F and then maybe it drops to 35F or 34F in a heavier burst with wet flakes.

 

Seems like we get into a more true semi-arctic airmass by later next week which is why there could be a shot at something next weekend if the cards fall right.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The system is long occluded by the time that ULL moves south of us so it's gonna be favoring different areas on almost every run. I don't think there's much accumulation potential but the higher terrain near you and even down through ORH and NE CT could see a coating if they get into a heavier burst or two. But right now, it's mostly "first flakes" novelty potential here. Without an arctic airmass, it's pretty marginal....esp lower elevations. Type of thing where it;s 38F and then maybe it drops to 35F or 34F in a heavier burst with wet flakes.

 

Seems like we get into a more true semi-arctic airmass by later next week which is why there could be a shot at something next weekend if the cards fall right.

we had our first flakes in October.. I'm ready for something more at this point.  hopefully the end of the week system delivers 

[WinterWolf]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That period after T day into the weekend has had a few weenie solutions. 

 

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats @scooter on the GFS for 11/29-30

Wouldn’t that be the ultimate irony.  Lol.