Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NW NJ up thru SE NY into NW CT are in for a Sapling snapping 6-12+ while SNE dry slots. We will be very envious end of week .

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks active and wet for sne to me. The dry ridge stretches are behind us. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks active and wet for sne to me. The dry ridge stretches are behind us. 

It has been quite the ridge run. Since I moved here in 2007,  I have never seen a stretch with so many clear and starry nights.  I thank dog for getting me outside every night to take it all in.

[weathafella]

49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It has been quite the ridge run. Since I moved here in 2007,  I have never seen a stretch with so many clear and starry nights.  I thank dog for getting me outside every night to take it all in.

For this part of the world, this dry period has rivaled the drought of the early 60s that tamarack alludes to.  However, in my years of living in southern California, this is nothing.  One year when I was living there (1976-91) the city of LA went 7 months without a trace of rain.

[Modfan2]

Wagons west with the rain for tomorrow? Seeing possibly a .50” here in Eastern CT which will be helpful but not enough to stop brush fire threat with another 5-6 dry days following.

[ineedsnow]

54 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Wagons west with the rain for tomorrow? Seeing possibly a .50” here in Eastern CT which will be helpful but not enough to stop brush fire threat with another 5-6 dry days following.

umm Nam, GFS, RGEM, Ukie are all over a inch for CT.. Euro has some spots around .75   

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Wagons west with the rain for tomorrow? Seeing possibly a .50” here in Eastern CT which will be helpful but not enough to stop brush fire threat with another 5-6 dry days following.

Expecting between .75 and 1.5 in my area. Winter storm watch for the Poconos...

[512high]

28 for the low, lets gets some rain to help this fire danger,  saw a jackass throw the cigarette butt out the window by a wooded area this morning, pretty sure I drove over it and put it out with my tires, god I hate people like that.

[WinterWolf]

9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

After Thurs/Fri, the GFS is pretty dry in the extended.  Maybe a T-Day weekend threat but that is still low probability.

 

[WinterWolf]

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks active and wet for sne to me. The dry ridge stretches are behind us. 

 

[WinterWolf]

9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

After Thurs/Fri, the GFS is pretty dry in the extended.  Maybe a T-Day weekend threat but that is still low probability.

 

[CoastalWx]

Looks pretty good still for something perhaps early December. Nothing much else to add other than pattern could support it. Hopefully people like Ineedweenies aren’t locking something in.

[Modfan2]

So is BOX widespread 1.5-2.0 accurate or heaviest amount confined to Western NE and NYS? Guess we will see

[Typhoon Tip]

there's really two opportunities for cold system complexion within this ensuing pattern.    the first being ~27/28th, the next being ~2nd

conflicting signals... 

eps mean/pna index coverage is a better fit for the operational gfs, which likes the ~27-29 period.   06z version may have strayed but it'll be back if recent behavior is any guide

the operational euro's been pushing robust/new +pna rise, after the system this weekend - much more so than it's ens mean.  it first lowers the index to neutral-neg for couple of days, then a rather impressive rise take place.  it's placing an important event during this latter index burst ... around dec 2nd. in a vacuum that isn't altogether unsound. so it's nadir in between is destructively interfering with the 27-29er so it squashes that out.

the operational gfs on the other hand, has a more modest rise back to just neutral heading into the first week of dec.  this allows the the 27-29 period more coherency ... and because it is less + into the first week of dec ... it's not really jiving with the euro out there. 

 

 

[Lava Rock]

I'd hit that

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks active and wet for sne to me. The dry ridge stretches are behind us. 

Well timed....Sept through the first half of November was a perfect time for it.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, 512high said:

28 for the low, lets gets some rain to help this fire danger,  saw a jackass throw the cigarette butt out the window by a wooded area this morning, pretty sure I drove over it and put it out with my tires, god I hate people like that.

hate that as well. It's basically littering. Also if you want to smoke those stinky sticks at least have the decency to carry around a can to put the butts into, but I guess that's too hard for some people

[NoCORH4L]

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

After Thurs/Fri, the GFS is pretty dry in the extended.  Maybe a T-Day weekend threat but that is still low probability.

Yeah the news is pretending this .75 is a drought buster, but I'm reality it's not much impact at all except for fire danger. Reservoirs will still be super low.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well timed....Sept through the first half of November was a perfect time for it.

Been saying this for over a month….was a great stretch of weather to have basically 3 full months of sun and great days.  And now let it get more active and wet.  Imo, you couldn’t time it any better than this. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yeah the news is pretending this .75 is a drought buster, but I'm reality it's not much impact at all except for fire danger. Reservoirs will still be super low.

I think alot of the area will get more than .75.  But if you don’t, there’s more coming. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yeah the news is pretending this .75 is a drought buster, but I'm reality it's not much impact at all except for fire danger. Reservoirs will still be super low.

It will be more than that and it will help the brush fire threat a ton 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Been saying this for over a month….was a great stretch of weather to have basically 3 full months of sun and great days.  And now let it get more active and wet.  Imo, you couldn’t time it any better than this. 

Maybe winter will suck again, but it won't stay as dry as it has been...take that to the bank.

[Typhoon Tip]

unfortunately ... y'all are gonna have to shut down the d-drip over this "drought" and fire hysteria.  

you'll get a chance to enjoy getting event stoned soon enough ... but .8 to 1.6 basin coverage is plenty to significantly enough retard fuels in the combustion triad, and that's going to ruin your high.  lol

as far as what happens after, this is an entirely new pattern ensuing.  there are multiple potentials for maintenance/ sub index scaled events that were not there during the dry recency.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

unfortunately ... y'all are gonna have to shut down the d-drip over this "drought" and fire hysteria.  

you'll get a chance to enjoy getting event stoned soon enough ... but .8 to 1.6 basin coverage is plenty to significantly enough retard fuels in the combustion triad. 

as far as what happens after, this is an entirely new pattern ensuing.  there are multiple potentials for maintenance/ sub index scaled events that were not there during the dry recency.

Anybody with any common sense knows the fire threat is toast after today.  So I agree with you completely. 

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe winter will suck again, but it won't stay as dry as it has been...take that to the bank.

Agreed wholeheartedly.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

"event stoned"

[Snowcrazed71]

42 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yeah the news is pretending this .75 is a drought buster, but I'm reality it's not much impact at all except for fire danger. Reservoirs will still be super low.

Not sure what newscast you're watching, but I can tell you that the few here in Connecticut have both meteorologists saying that this is not a drought buster by any means. The only thing they had said is it'll help with the forest fires.

[ORH_wxman]

13 hours ago, kdxken said:

Speaking of which, when was the first get together at Clark's? Must have been a while ago. I'm pretty sure you were there at the bar with a laptop so it couldn't have been the '60s. Might have even been some snow coming??

I'm 99% sure the first Clark's meeting was Dec 2013 right before Christmas....I think it was the 23rd.

[40/70 Benchmark]

At this point, anything qualifying as a "drought bustrer" would entail fooding, ironically enough. If we don't flood, then we aren't busting shit.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not sure what newscast you're watching, but I can tell you that the few here in Connecticut have both meteorologists saying that this is not a drought buster by any means. The only thing they had said is it'll help with the forest fires.

Yes we will need a lot more to fill the reservoirs and lakes back up a bit, but the fire danger will be massively reduced after this event.