Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, Ski Patroller said:

 

0.93" in Colebrook for the period. Wicked.

I've been writing conservation easements in New England for over 30 years. We never considered landscape-scale fire issues in the contingencies.  We were taught in forestry school that droughts like this happened here on 600-1200-year cycles.

I just finished drafting the first fire contingency language for a conservation easement project yesterday, allowing 150' of tree clearing from structures, the building of firebreaks, permitted motorized use in firefighting, and allowing fire-control access to water features. Essentially, the California model except we don't allow salvage logging beyond hazard trees. Crazy stuff.

Wow man that is wild. We get long term droughts which this will probably turn into, but the severity of this flash drought which came out of nowhere is just not something this part of the country sees. 

[dryslot]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z EPS looks fun for here.. but who knows stormvista maps probably overdone 

They are.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wow man that is wild. We get long term droughts which this will probably turn into, but the severity of this flash drought which came out of nowhere is just not something this part of the country sees. 

Thankfully a rainy period is upon us just in time for the holiday season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In all my years .. never have seen anything quite like this. The worry is it continues thru the winter in a general sense. If you analog the years and the ensuing winters.. they don’t end well for snow 

What an absolutely brutal list of winters.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What an absolutely brutal list of winters.

I’ll be honest. It’s a big concern and I am worried 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll be honest. It’s a big concern and I am worried 

Yea, it is concerning, but not a death-knell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Remember...the changing climate stuff works both ways....Just as we are not as likely to see sustained cold moving forward as we have been in past analog, nor are we as likely to see sustained dry conditions moving forward.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Remember...the changing climate stuff works both ways....Just as we are not as likely to see sustained cold moving forward as we have been in past analog, nor are we as likely to see sustained dry conditions moving forward.

This I am not so sure about. 

If we get a -PDO/-AMO combo that may be the case. IIRC, doesn't -PDO phases tend to coincide with dryer than average conditions across the CONUS? 

[Chrisrotary12]

GFS at least offers an active pattern starting Thursday. Let’s see how we can screw this up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This I am not so sure about. 

If we get a -PDO/-AMO combo that may be the case. IIRC, doesn't -PDO phases tend to coincide with dryer than average conditions across the CONUS? 

Sure.....however, average is a relative term that is climate-based...is -PDO drier than +PDO on average? Sure....but I would argue that its not as likely to remain this dry as it was 50 years ago, just as the cold from those archaic -PDO/NAO analogs are no longer working out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Huge fire in Great Barrington . Very smoky in parts of CT

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure.....however, average is a relative term that is climate-based...is -PDO drier than +PDO on average? Sure....but I would argue that its not as likely to remain this dry as it was 50 years ago, just as the cold from those archaic -PDO/NAO analogs are no longer working out. 

I do agree with that general idea but I think lately I've backed off on how strong I agree with that idea. The last I want to say 3-4 years (maybe even a little longer?) have either had anomalously wet periods or anomalously dry periods. And the anomalously wet periods during this stretch have become more wet and the anomalously dry periods have become even more dry. That is just an observation though - not trying to connect that to anything. But may this is something we're going to have to do with for a while...when we're getting favorable upward vertical motion over the CONUS we'll have precip event galore and maximize PWATs and when we have unfavorable vertical motion we won't be able to buy anything 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

solid early season climo threat here ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I do agree with that general idea but I think lately I've backed off on how strong I agree with that idea. The last I want to say 3-4 years (maybe even a little longer?) have either had anomalously wet periods or anomalously dry periods. And the anomalously wet periods during this stretch have become more wet and the anomalously dry periods have become even more dry. That is just an observation though - not trying to connect that to anything. But may this is something we're going to have to do with for a while...when we're getting favorable upward vertical motion over the CONUS we'll have precip event galore and maximize PWATs and when we have unfavorable vertical motion we won't be able to buy anything 

 

This is absolutely true.....patterns are getting more extreme and are stagnating, but at the end of the day, wet is still going to win out a higher percetnage of the time than dry relative to the past. Just as warmth is. I will bet against it remaining this dry for the next several months, but you do you....of course, that says nothing about snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

solid early season climo threat here ...

I couldn't care less...not paying any mind to that.

[Typhoon Tip]

lol  

scott and ray with a clearly objective response to the intents and purposes of the cosmic dildo.  priceless ...

[Typhoon Tip]

the problem with this system - all along in guidance ... - is that it is arriving over an amorphous low level troposphere.  there's no real fronts or thermodynamic gradients between se ontario and nj/sne.    that's why the surface low response is sort of instantly stacking under the low, as opposed to developing se and then capturing later.  

what's interesting though is the hints of new deepening in late innings.  the 06z is now biting on that idea more coherently, precariously close to bringing a sub 980 mb new deepening e of the region - close to being a short duration burst of isallobaric wind  ...wind rushing in upon exit...  moreover, a small non-zero chance that it would clip and bring a burst of - by then - wet snow or mix contention while doing so...

so there is bit of enhanced uncertainty relative to this time range

[Typhoon Tip]

... in which case, ray and scott would actually trophy this whole ordeal and the rest of use would be left out.  fascinating

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... in which case, ray and scott would actually trophy this whole ordeal and the rest of use would be left out.  fascinating

I'm not inclined to begin the season early for this, as my gut says it finds a way to fail.

[CoastalWx]

I love tucked in lows. Please give me more

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love tucked in lows. Please give me more

In late Novemeber, nonetheless....yea, high percentage play.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 11/17/2024 at 9:07 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

...

i'm also a curious about a possible flat wave winter -like threat around the 27th give or take - so after this one.

 

still liking that period after this weekend's ordeal.  

that's been a smattering of sub-teleconnector-scaled systems through dec 3 or 4 out there in the extended guidance since i mentioned the above a couple days ago.  any one of which could bring a quickie. of those, the 26th/27th/28th seems to have the greater recurrence in the runs.   i'm not predicting that per se, but the gfs' 06z flat fast mover fits the pattern.  

what we're heading into is a -epo cold loading into a low frequency +pna... that means the flow isn't really going to tip trough west, ridge east, as the initial -epo response ... blah blah blah ... the trough ends up a bit down stream off the -epo.  such that you get a compressed faster flow field where the cold heights and thicknesses compress against the se ridge. 

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not inclined to begin the season early for this, as my gut says it finds a way to fail.

yeah ... i'm right along with y'all for ...guarded optimism during these next 2 to 3 weeks, but not touching post dec 10

i realize the very extended gfs ens and/or the eu weeklies this that and the other ( i don't presently know) but once we get toward week 4 those don't really strike me as being very dependable just anecdotally.   plus, experience.   experience for me is that favorable patterns prior to dec 15 seldom last and in fact, ... i've seen deep snow packs on the 10th go down to mud by xmas eve more times than i care to remember. 

so ... short version, i agree.  

now, there are a handful of years that got cold and snowy and stayed that way until after the holidays - i haven't actually compared those to the charlie browns. it could all really be proven noise per empirical data, but i lean toward the 'not lasting' side.  especially in 2024's state of the world, that would be the wiser course

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, dryslot said:

Sept-Nov, 3.46"

Got you beat by 0.09"     Only 0.44" over the past 5 weeks, however.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Got you beat by 0.09"     Only 0.44" over the past 5 weeks, however.

Ha ha, Should slice into the deficit later this week though.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll be honest. It’s a big concern and I am worried 

Those correlations never work in such small sample sizes and you can sort of toss 1931 given what ERA that was.  There is no doubt this year has some similarities to 01 though given its most recent, near the solar max and also a cold neutral setup.  That said, that followed 3 straight La Ninas too while this winter comes off an El Nino

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I love tucking it in low. Please give me more

…

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I love tucked in lows. Please give me more

Get a room.... Lol

 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This I am not so sure about. 

If we get a -PDO/-AMO combo that may be the case. IIRC, doesn't -PDO phases tend to coincide with dryer than average conditions across the CONUS? 

I agree....