dryslot Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m about 55 . It’s been brutal No coastal storms so far this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Hopefully the one this week is a start for more coastal's going forward or............... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 minute ago, dryslot said: No coastal storms so far this fall. In all my years .. never have seen anything quite like this. The worry is it continues thru the winter in a general sense. If you analog the years and the ensuing winters.. they don’t end well for snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: In all my years .. never have seen anything quite like this. The worry is it continues thru the winter in a general sense. If you analog the years and the ensuing winters.. they don’t end well for snow Yeah, That won't be good, We need the coastal systems or SWFE to get snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Wow didn't realize how similar the NAM/Euro are in terms of how the entire system evolves...does the old NAM/Euro rule still exist Alot will probably depend on how quickly and where occlusion occurs. GFS is much quicker in this regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Wow didn't realize how similar the NAM/Euro are in terms of how the entire system evolves...does the old NAM/Euro rule still exist Alot will probably depend on how quickly and where occlusion occurs. GFS is much quicker in this regard. The euro-nam rule died in late January of 2015, lol. I think this system is a great test of euro AI. AI has a discreet low center further south than the others.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 Meanwhile, the 18z gfs has a wintry look to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 EPS looks pretty darn good to start December. I know Will and Tip talked about it, but the Pacific is good overall. Still a SE ridge risk with the EPO, but I can’t complain about that look 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks pretty darn good to start December. I know Will and Tip talked about it, but the Pacific is good overall. Still a SE ridge risk with the EPO, but I can’t complain about that look I remember last winter it looked good too. Hopefully this is different 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I remember last winter it looked good too. Hopefully this is different WPO is different this time..didnt have that last winter…maybe that will make a difference this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whoa!! That is Solid. 1.74 here since Aug 20 Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe Now that is next level dry over 3 months. Under 1” in 3 months… that can be had in 15 minutes in the convective dews of summer. Really hard to see that in New England’s climate and proximity to a moisture source like the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Now that is next level dry over 3 months. Under 1” in 3 months… that can be had in 15 minutes in the convective dews of summer. Really hard to see that in New England’s climate and proximity to a moisture source like the Atlantic. It’s literally been a 3 month spell like you’d see in the west . Not something I’d ever expect or thought we’d see. Especially coming off such a wet early to mid summer. In a humid climate. It usually finds a way to rain. But SNE just turned into La Jolla almost overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Winds of change are in the offing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 57 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: The euro-nam rule died in late January of 2015, lol. I think this system is a great test of euro AI. AI has a discreet low center further south than the others.... Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war... The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits. If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 2 minutes ago, FXWX said: Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war... The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits. If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events. Great point. I think weather models take on a superstar status when they hit (or appear to hit) on a tracked event. It is still fun to see which one is closest when it matters… but you’re right, it doesn’t mean anything statistically for future results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Just bought a subscription for Pivotal Weather . It's only 9.99 a month and just as fast as Stormvista. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whoa!! That is Solid. 1.74 here since Aug 20 Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe 6 hours ago, dryslot said: That's awful actually for being in the coastal plain. 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Now that is next level dry over 3 months. Under 1” in 3 months… that can be had in 15 minutes in the convective dews of summer. Really hard to see that in New England’s climate and proximity to a moisture source like the Atlantic. It has been insane. I actually checked my VP2 to make sure the system was working properly. I haven’t needed to mow in a very long time, and leaf pickup has been the easiest it’ll probably ever get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Whatever Google weather uses for models must be coming in higher with rainfall. Up to an inch and a quarter for the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Goofus with the d9 white Thanksgiving up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Whatever Google weather uses for models must be coming in higher with rainfall. Up to an inch and a quarter for the total. Let’s see how this shakes out, seeing .50-.75” here; a little skeptical that it’s going to be a little less than .50” which is good, we need it but will only dampen the very top layer and will be wind blown dry this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Let’s see how this shakes out, seeing .50-.75” here; a little skeptical that it’s going to be a little less than .50” which is good, we need it but will only dampen the very top layer and will be wind blown dry this weekend. Gotta start somewhere though. Something is better than nothing. It’ll be a good drink I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Snowblower still getting fixed and tuned up. Probably won't need it again this year, but, just in case I get a rogue high output snowstorm (High output for my area is 8"-10") it will be ready. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Take me, to the magic of the momentOn a glory night……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 We are tracking to have least amount of pack on the ground by December 1st in our overall region; combining Ontario, NB and the northeast US. I know it’s mostly due to dry conditions, in the colder locations in Northern Maine and Canada…but it’s something important to note as we head into met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 10 hours ago, FXWX said: Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war... The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits. If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events. Yup to test of AI. I said it is a test, not the test. If it is right, we keep an eye on it for future EC cyclogenesis events...we don't stop running the hydrostatic models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ski Patroller Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whoa!! That is Solid. 1.74 here since Aug 20 Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe 0.93" in Colebrook for the period. Wicked. I've been writing conservation easements in New England for over 30 years. We never considered landscape-scale fire issues in the contingencies. We were taught in forestry school that droughts like this happened here on 600-1200-year cycles. I just finished drafting the first fire contingency language for a conservation easement project yesterday, allowing 150' of tree clearing from structures, the building of firebreaks, permitted motorized use in firefighting, and allowing fire-control access to water features. Essentially, the California model except we don't allow salvage logging beyond hazard trees. Crazy stuff. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Maybe not bad after all for the Greens Thursday night into Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Maybe not bad after all for the Greens Thursday night into Friday morning 6z EPS looks fun for here.. but who knows stormvista maps probably overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 6z EPS looks fun for here.. but who knows stormvista maps probably overdone Within our region, I don't think anyone sees any snow outside of the Greens and maybe parts of the Berkshires. This is where the most intense lifting would likely be. But I wouldn't be surprised if some flakes/graupel on Friday...in fact I bet many see at least some sort of frozen precip mixture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Within our region, I don't think anyone sees any snow outside of the Greens and maybe parts of the Berkshires. This is where the most intense lifting would likely be. But I wouldn't be surprised if some flakes/graupel on Friday...in fact I bet many see at least some sort of frozen precip mixture. most of it on the EPS comes Friday night with that second batch.. I guess we'll see and who knows if it even happens or where it will even end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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