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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY
HIPPYVALLEY

My friend’s parents barn burned down in the Buckland brushfire this evening.  

dendrite
dendrite

Initialized by Ann Selzer

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where 1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen... 2. EPS shows big pattern change coming aroun

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Snowedin

Snowedin

Posted
Posted
  On 11/18/2024 at 6:33 PM, dendrite said:

Just another day of 60+

image.gif

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We take and bake. Any warm ups are massively appreciated during these cruelly short days. Totally looking forward to a solid soaking around here Thursday as it’s getting a little disturbing seeing literal clouds of dust flying around the backs of peoples mowers in this part of the country.

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-globe-uv200_stream-2795200.png.657e725ed820101190f3a12651820134.png

when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec

5384360_goodpacjets.gif.ae1e4c276965757ba94474db56119001.gif

when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result

1360359525_badpacjets.gif.739b9f9a2a06bcc260724246b0661123.gif

therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 11/18/2024 at 11:30 PM, WinterWolf said:

Oh yes…there’s change. You’ll see. It starts Thursday with some good rain. You’ll come around to the reality. 

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If CT gets . 50 that will be a win considering most of us are under 1.75” total since Aug 20. Until it measures in your gauge it hasn’t happened 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 11/18/2024 at 11:13 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

That was like a weenie generated run.  Add in the 1989 like cold shot that is coming down at 360 from NW Canada to the 2 storms 

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EPO and especially WPO are looking a lot better than recent years. We’ll see if that can maintain. @Typhoon Tip and I mentioned it a few times already and we talked about it last winter too. WPO has been kind of a turd in the punchbowl recently (it has even muted some of the recent -EPO bursts) and there’s a pretty strong signal it will be more favorable to start this cold season. That doesn’t guarantee us great results but it does mean we won’t underperform the cold dumps into Canada so when things do try to move SE, they are coming from a potent source region. It’s loading the dice a bit better for us than previously. 
 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 11/18/2024 at 11:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy the snow and rain . And be glad you live in a drought proof area 

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You’re getting some rain with this next one.  Not going to be a multi-inch drought buster but should soak in.

Given these two 18z progs, I assume we know which one you believe of the GFS or Euro.

IMG_1390.thumb.png.4a37b50d57738f4827ac960fcee86b77.png

IMG_1391.thumb.png.5fc683193de8c9e78eccbb1234f11edf.png

NAM is decent soak too.

IMG_1392.thumb.png.262f5d3d1c57c205efe947ec66153b30.png

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 11/18/2024 at 11:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

If CT gets . 50 that will be a win considering most of us are under 1.75” total since Aug 20. Until it measures in your gauge it hasn’t happened 

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Those of us west will probably do better than .50.  But the point is it’s a change. And there will be more changes coming after that.  The time for persistence is drawing to an end. Better hop on board or be left behind. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 11/19/2024 at 12:17 AM, powderfreak said:

You’re getting some rain with this next one.  Not going to be a multi-inch drought buster but should soak in.

Given these two 18z progs, I assume we know which one you believe of the GFS or Euro.

IMG_1390.thumb.png.4a37b50d57738f4827ac960fcee86b77.png

IMG_1391.thumb.png.5fc683193de8c9e78eccbb1234f11edf.png

NAM is decent soak too.

IMG_1392.thumb.png.262f5d3d1c57c205efe947ec66153b30.png

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Gonna be a good drink. That’s the take away. First one here in 3 months.  Here’s Tolland on Thursday morning below. 

IMG_5997.png

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cardinalland

cardinalland

Posted
Posted

Decided to have some fun with data and correlated CT snowfalls in December with temperatures around the world for the last 44 years. It's CT but that maps well to SNE at least. The first map only has statistically significant correlations and the second shows all. I guess a cold Plains, Midwest, or northern US corresponds with higher snowfall around here. I probably didn't need to run the numbers to figure that out but here it is anyway.

 

DecSnowTempHVNSig.png.04a08038d075d4e30c14ff159aefee0a.pngDecSnowTempHVN.png.a0f47458e04ecfeda741cf28ea6c8f29.png

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 11/19/2024 at 12:17 AM, powderfreak said:

You’re getting some rain with this next one.  Not going to be a multi-inch drought buster but should soak in.

Given these two 18z progs, I assume we know which one you believe of the GFS or Euro.

IMG_1390.thumb.png.4a37b50d57738f4827ac960fcee86b77.png

IMG_1391.thumb.png.5fc683193de8c9e78eccbb1234f11edf.png

NAM is decent soak too.

IMG_1392.thumb.png.262f5d3d1c57c205efe947ec66153b30.png

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I’m not buying in on any one model. It is going to rain . We’ll see how much . I know which way we lean though ! https://x.com/trumpwarroom/status/1858267401533714552?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 11/19/2024 at 12:36 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not buying in on any one model. It is going to rain . We’ll see how much . I know which way we lean though ! https://x.com/trumpwarroom/status/1858267401533714552?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

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Take a blend, and it’s still A good drink. And We all need it. 

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