weatherwiz Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: We need to get the moisture in here on a regular bases before worrying about snow. That's the first hurdle. If pattern still looks good first week of Dec, then maybe we get a winter threat (provided it's cold enough) For here, I think I would rather just roll the dice with a below-average precip winter. I forgot who mentioned this but it seems like lately when we get above-average precip winters, it comes with warmer storms and we get more rain. There used to be a time when if we got above-average precip in the winter...it meant we got slammed with snow. Maybe below-average precip would mean a colder pattern and what storms we get actually produce...snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Briefly just looked at the models and i would sell snow outside of the higher elevations of NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Briefly just looked at the models and i would sell snow outside of the higher elevations of NNE. Hell, I would even sell it for anywhere outside of the clouds where snowflakes would be produced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Just bring the rain at this point. That’s all we need right now. If the end of the month and beginning of December can keep looking decent, that’s absolutely perfect timing imo, because I’m actually still enjoying these very nice days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 impressive arctic outbreak in the ext 12z gfs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, weathafella said: People blowing loads too early. Pace yourselves! We’re heading to IAH for thanksgiving-I’ll pay attention upon our return on 11/29. lotta three pump dumprs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: impressive arctic outbreak in the ext 12z gfs We need to get these to dump into the upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley region. I don't know the climatology with Arctic outbreaks, however, I would imagine they're more than likely to spill into the center U.S. (east of the Rockies) than they are into the upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley. Anyways, these things keep spilling into the Great Plains we just just end up on the warm end of systems and get the cold on the backside of systems as they pull out. Maybe we need them to spill deep into the southern Plains because that would focus cyclogenesis way south and increase the potential for off-shore tracks for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 45 minutes ago, Hazey said: We need to get the moisture in here on a regular bases before worrying about snow. That's the first hurdle. If pattern still looks good first week of Dec, then maybe we get a winter threat (provided it's cold enough) not much dependency on one another if that's what you're getting at? dry doesn't beget dry in the colder climate months like it does in summer it's possible to be antecedent dry over an extended length of time, ...pattern change --> 30" of snow, and summarily go back to dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We need to get these to dump into the upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley region. I don't know the climatology with Arctic outbreaks, however, I would imagine they're more than likely to spill into the center U.S. (east of the Rockies) than they are into the upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley. Anyways, these things keep spilling into the Great Plains we just just end up on the warm end of systems and get the cold on the backside of systems as they pull out. Maybe we need them to spill deep into the southern Plains because that would focus cyclogenesis way south and increase the potential for off-shore tracks for us? actually, that's rarer in the early chapters of pattern changing in "winter" ... we got the early feb oddity of -9f type 'continental tuck' last year,' but it's pulling out within 24 hours is a red flag for its equally unusual way in having that happen the way it did. more typically, the -epo cold load begins west, then ... spreads east. this chart above proooobably doesn't verify as is, from this range lol. right. but it does show a rather text book -epo dump, loading through the mt/dakotas route, and then compressing a thickness gradient through the ov. what we want after is the +pna to resurge...then, we have the cold in place for the h.a. recovery storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: actually, that's rarer in the early chapters of pattern changing in "winter" ... we got the early feb oddity of -9f type 'continental tuck' last year,' but it's pulling out within 24 hours is a red flag for its equally unusual way in having that happen the way it did. more typically, the -epo cold load begins west, then ... spreads east. this chart above proooobably doesn't verify as is, from this range lol. right. but it does show a rather text book -epo dump, loading through the mt/dakotas route, and then compressing a thickness gradient through the ov. what we want after is the +pna to resurge...then, we have the cold in place for the h.a. recovery storm. Gotcha. This is precisely why timing is just as, if not, more important when dealing with the "sensible" weather and when it comes to the states of PNA, EPO, NAO, AO, etc. its their trend over a 5-7D period which is more important than just want the index looks to become or average out to. I wish there was an easy way to do this and apply to historical events and for research purposes. I still would one love love to be able to take the daily index levels of the various indices and compute a weekly/bi-weekly rolling average. But I think this is extremely complex. I don't think its as simple as just taking the daily values and simply dividing by 7 or 14. A program could do this extremely easily, just have to come up with the proper equation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Just another day of 60+ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Just another day of 60+Getting old, although the lunchtime walk was nice Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 15 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Getting old, although the lunchtime walk was nice Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk I’ll take this over breezy cloudy low 40’s(which was last Thursday)any day though. But a change soon will be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 December for now looks promising to start. I wouldn't expect BIG snow in sne before 10 days in but the players per the ensemble products appear to be heading into position. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Good sized plume of smoke not far from me. Looks like it is coming from the Blue Hills somewhere in the Ponkapoag/Randolph area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: December for now looks promising to start. I wouldn't expect BIG snow in sne before 10 days in but the players per the ensemble products appear to be heading into position. Even some crappy Decembers had a decent early snowfall prior to going to crap by midmonth. Many of the long-lead forecasts had a decided cooling for late November into early December with at least a hint of a snow threat, appear to be following script. Unfortunately, those same forecasts call for a moderating trend and lowering of the snow potential heading into mid/late December. I've learned over the years, significant early December snow, for at least SNE, does not always bode well for what follows. This is not a prediction just some thoughts after decades of monitoring... I've always liked late December as the best time to see a significant winter pattern shift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 there's a kind of anecdotal correlation for rather big events in the first 10 days of decs actually. more of those than there are great decs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 WSW out for the higher terrain in eastern West Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: WSW out for the higher terrain in eastern West Virginia Hold us 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: there's a kind of anecdotal correlation for rather big events in the first 10 days of decs actually. more of those than there are great decs I may be wrong but I think they are often SWFE’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Wow, quite the wildfire in northeast mass this afternoon. In New England, I have never seen a smoke plumb visible from space that extends this far. Rain please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: there's a kind of anecdotal correlation for rather big events in the first 10 days of decs actually. more of those than there are great decs Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 High 59 low 42 DPT 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 55 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Wow, quite the wildfire in northeast mass this afternoon. In New England, I have never seen a smoke plumb visible from space that extends this far. Rain please... I guess theres a 4 four alarm brush fire at lake Dennison down the road from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Wow, quite the wildfire in northeast mass this afternoon. In New England, I have never seen a smoke plumb visible from space that extends this far. Rain please... that looks like ray was leaf burnin and it got away from him 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Gfs! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Still going in New England 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Eps has the EPO tanking next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 On 11/17/2024 at 12:52 PM, ORH_wxman said: Sell the clown maps hard on this type of setup. Mountains in VT/NH would do ok but lower down would struggled unless you really crank omega and this far out that’s gonna be iffy…esp with somewhat weak thermal gradients. You worry about disorganization in precip field. Plus, still a chance the whole thing ends up further north. I still think there’s a good chance for some flurries and snow showers around the ULL on the weekend though. Many have a good shot at first flakes. ULL continues the trend north so we say goodbye to first flake chances. Boredom continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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