Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Snowcrazed71]

32 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Until the Euro has been unburdened by what has been (upgrades) I'll believe it when I see it EDIT: wait, where are you seeing snow on the Euro for this general area? I don't see anything... unless mine is stuck on last run??

  The good news is we're going to see some beneficial rain. An inch plus maybe. But they're talking about some mixing with snow, possibly Thursday night into Friday morning. Nothing that's going to accumulate, but it's kind of cool to hear the chances of Snow mixing in

[CoastalWx]

57 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Until the Euro has been unburdened by what has been (upgrades) I'll believe it when I see it EDIT: wait, where are you seeing snow on the Euro for this general area? I don't see anything... unless mine is stuck on last run??

Still drunk 

[CoastalWx]

That early December period still looks like it could deliver something if timed right.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Until the Euro has been unburdened by what has been (upgrades) I'll believe it when I see it EDIT: wait, where are you seeing snow on the Euro for this general area? I don't see anything... unless mine is stuck on last run??

we're inside of 108 hours ..   the euro will not likely be as bad as the populous falsity has popularized it to be.

whether that means rain snow cats or dogs and for whom, aside ... it won't stray dramatically from the consensus at this range and in fact has a fair shot of being better in the nuances just like any of them

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That early December period still looks like it could deliver something if timed right.

seeing the -epo exertion on the thermal gradient.   really cold in the 00z and 06z oper gfs sprawling canada by the 30th.   ensuing frames keep it locked n of the border, with fast moving highly thickness compressed waves slicing along the ambient polar boundary - it's precarious.  i wouldn't trust that handling

not that there is a lot of continuity as we are heading into this new hemisphere ...  yet, but as an aside, that reminds me of dec 2014.  we were playing with dad's gun that month with cold to warm rain to cold flip flops, because we couldn't seem time confluence/a polar high just right.  

[Go Kart Mozart]

Summit of Greylock FTW!

[kdxken]

https://nypost.com/2024/11/17/lifestyle/winter-penis-could-reduce-sex-organ-size-by-up-to-50-doctor-warns/

I am not sure why you guys are wishing for cold and snow. I know your wife's aren't.

[Modfan2]

Meh, showers this am fizzled to drops barely enough to dampen the  driveway; I think the rain totals as we get closer to Thursday drop  from an inch to possibly a 1/2  to maybe 3/4 with more west of the river

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

seeing the -epo exertion on the thermal gradient.   really cold in the 00z and 06z oper gfs sprawling canada by the 30th.   ensuing frames keep it locked n of the border, with fast moving highly thickness compressed waves slicing along the ambient polar boundary - it's precarious.  i wouldn't trust that handling

not that there is a lot of continuity as we are heading into this new hemisphere ...  yet, but as an aside, that reminds me of dec 2014.  we were playing with dad's gun that month with cold to warm rain to cold flip flops, because we couldn't seem time confluence/a polar high just right.  

I think a few of us have been toying with the notion over the course of the past several seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's really more of a whole sale hemispheric reconstruction rather than just the nao switching mode. 

it's really complex... not to bog anyone down with tl;dr popsicle headaches, i'll try to make it just a sentence or two:  

the -nao is really the non-linear wave function transmitted via wave dispersion mechanics, down stream of the e pacific.  we can see it now.. the nao is already negative and the -pna is ongoing - albeit about to fall apart

 

bit longer version:  ..SO, the ongoing -pna trough loading into the west has a waa consequence by l/w mechanics, which sends height anomalies over eastern Canada.  one has to also not just look for this in black and white circumstances... it is nuanced... sometimes it isn't as coherent as we are just lucky enough to have as an example ( this abv is the 36 hour euro ens mean off the 12z run cycle) 

lol.   oh man.  it's true tho.   just basically there is a change with an arriving +pna.  it is coupling with vestigial -nao, which is once that block has materialized ... it then is a positive feedback --> synergy/constructive interference.  it is why-for the changing of the guard... ending the dry era with a ( potential ) 2-3" event.  this deep vortex here at 130 hrs (blw) is the result of all this

the chances after that are interesting... the west pacific oscillation is not in any hurry to recover.  in fact, i've been monitoring ...the extended ranges keep collapsing the index back negative for every day that appears over the outer model horizon. it's not hugely negative, but negative nonetheless.   the 12z ens of the euro and gefs ... both show a low frequency -pna returning, but .. there is a low frequency -epo ( which is probably lag coupled with the wpo, because that is the nature progression).   so the pacific is split between an over arcing cold signal, and a warm one tunneling underneath. 

the one underneath...that actually is the resonance signal for -nao. 

putting all this together, this is mm... moderately intriguing if a winter enthusiast going after this weekend's thing and through tgiving week.  perhaps into the first while of december.

as an after thought...this is the last 3-5 days of trend analysis.   these large mass field indicators can also change.  but for now ... etc

 

Theme of the season to come IMHO.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

  The good news is we're going to see some beneficial rain. An inch plus maybe. But they're talking about some mixing with snow, possibly Thursday night into Friday morning. Nothing that's going to accumulate, but it's kind of cool to hear the chances of Snow mixing in

I'll believe when I see it. Seems over modeled most of the time.

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I'll believe when I see it. Seems over modeled most of the time.

Yeah, as I mentioned, does look at this point like we can get some mixing in with some snow Thursday night into Friday and Saturday. Very sporadic but the idea of seeing some is pretty cool. I think the Berkshires in Vermont have a better chance of seeing some accumulation from this Friday into Saturday, not a blockbuster at this point. Maine, but you may be more on the side of the rain the way the storms rolling up, but you guys always get that cold air drawing in as a the storm goes by. I guess we'll know better by Tuesday, Wednesday

[512high]

Well that cell flew by, .02" ground wet, sun trying @ 41F

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still drunk 

Stone cold sober actually... unless caffeine counts

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Summit of Greylock FTW!

It's a shame that's closed up in the winter!  I hope for a decent window the weekend of December 7th, have to drive to Terra Haute Indiana and back that weekend

[jbenedet]

6Z EPS says I register AN all week.

  

And i buy it...

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

6Z EPS says I register AN all week.

  

And i buy it...

Please, Enjoy it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

6Z EPS says I register AN all week.

  

And i buy it...

heh... ya think ?

  at this point in history, a fool and his money will soon go their separate ways if/when it comes to purchasing much otherwise ...

but snark aside, if there is going to be any bn out of the next 3 weeks, i don't believe dates prior to this weekend's pinwheel were slated to really be part of that.  i was just looking at the average/seasonal and we're into the 40s already.  it's seems above normal is all but precluded prior to next week.

folks can get into pattern change failure.. sure.   personally, i feel that high latitude blocking is at least transient during tg week.  afterward, we'll see ... but the emerging extended wpo/epo both correcting negative ... sends an interestingly unstable look.

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

Until the Euro has been unburdened by what has been (upgrades) I'll believe it when I see it EDIT: wait, where are you seeing snow on the Euro for this general area? I don't see anything... unless mine is stuck on last run??

Stormvista maps have it

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON makes it fun here but hard to believe

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z ICON makes it fun here but hard to believe

You’ve been believing since last week. 

[ineedsnow]

Snow depth change maps are probably better to use which are far less snowfall wise

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You’ve been believing since last week. 

Just hoping for something this weather has been driving me nuts

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Snow depth change maps are probably better to use which are far less snowfall wise

That axis centered around West Virginia is the goods. We get the stale stacked low remnants. 

[jbenedet]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... ya think ?

  at this point in history, a fool and his money will soon go their separate ways if/when it comes to purchasing much otherwise ...

but snark aside, if there is going to be any bn out of the next 3 weeks, i don't believe dates prior to this weekend's pinwheel were slated to really be part of that.  i was just looking at the average/seasonal and we're into the 40s already.  it's seems above normal is all but precluded prior to next week.

folks can get into pattern change failure.. sure.   personally, i feel that high latitude blocking is at least transient during tg week.  afterward, we'll see ... but the emerging extended wpo/epo both correcting negative ... sends an interestingly unstable look.

I guess the point here is, you really narrow the potential for BN if with -AO and - - NAO --as is now-- and we still generally ++ AN. 

What's the recipe to land the seacoast of NH into BN territory with some consistency? It's a rhetorical question...

 

 

[weathafella]

People blowing loads too early.   Pace yourselves!  We’re heading to IAH for thanksgiving-I’ll pay attention upon our return on 11/29.

[weatherwiz]

If you're hoping for a decent drink Wednesday night things continue to not look so great, IMO. The system becomes occluded Wednesday evening on the GFS well to our west. The better chance for some heavier rain is probably like PA/SE NY/NJ into SW CT right along maybe a triple point? 

As for any snow...yeah not happening, probably anywhere except the highest terrain. Even if a secondary pops it will be weak and certainly not anywhere close to enough dynamic cooling to do anything with. Someone above 1500 or 2000 feet will probably squeak out an inch or two but other than that nobody is seeing anything

[weatherwiz]

Does the algorithm for snow maps just check to see if there is any part of a layer (even if its like 5 feet) that is like below 32 (or hell even below 40 because that's how ridiculous their outputs are), then just multiple total QPF by 10:1 and say, "yup this much snow is falling"? 

[Cyclone-68]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

https://nypost.com/2024/11/17/lifestyle/winter-penis-could-reduce-sex-organ-size-by-up-to-50-doctor-warns/

I am not sure why you guys are wishing for cold and snow. I know your wife's aren't.

I must live in the Arctic Circle then 

[Hazey]

We need to get the moisture in here on a regular bases before worrying about snow. That's the first hurdle. If pattern still looks good first week of Dec, then maybe we get a winter threat (provided it's cold enough)