mahk_webstah Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 21 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I'll eat my ass if Torrington gets near half a foot from this current setup Sell, Sell, Sell You a gymnast or yogi? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 2 hours ago, bwt3650 said: That gfs run showing the end of the dry period, seasonal cool and multiple chances could certainly unite us. Is that the -nao doing its thing? . it's really more of a whole sale hemispheric reconstruction rather than just the nao switching mode. it's really complex... not to bog anyone down with tl;dr popsicle headaches, i'll try to make it just a sentence or two: the -nao is really the non-linear wave function transmitted via wave dispersion mechanics, down stream of the e pacific. we can see it now.. the nao is already negative and the -pna is ongoing - albeit about to fall apart bit longer version: ..SO, the ongoing -pna trough loading into the west has a waa consequence by l/w mechanics, which sends height anomalies over eastern Canada. one has to also not just look for this in black and white circumstances... it is nuanced... sometimes it isn't as coherent as we are just lucky enough to have as an example ( this abv is the 36 hour euro ens mean off the 12z run cycle) lol. oh man. it's true tho. just basically there is a change with an arriving +pna. it is coupling with vestigial -nao, which is once that block has materialized ... it then is a positive feedback --> synergy/constructive interference. it is why-for the changing of the guard... ending the dry era with a ( potential ) 2-3" event. this deep vortex here at 130 hrs (blw) is the result of all this the chances after that are interesting... the west pacific oscillation is not in any hurry to recover. in fact, i've been monitoring ...the extended ranges keep collapsing the index back negative for every day that appears over the outer model horizon. it's not hugely negative, but negative nonetheless. the 12z ens of the euro and gefs ... both show a low frequency -pna returning, but .. there is a low frequency -epo ( which is probably lag coupled with the wpo, because that is the nature progression). so the pacific is split between an over arcing cold signal, and a warm one tunneling underneath. the one underneath...that actually is the resonance signal for -nao. putting all this together, this is mm... moderately intriguing if a winter enthusiast going after this weekend's thing and through tgiving week. perhaps into the first while of december. as an after thought...this is the last 3-5 days of trend analysis. these large mass field indicators can also change. but for now ... etc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah very little doubt it rains Thursday. My gut just says the soaking rain say .75 higher are up north . These almost always trend north . Hopefully my gut is very wrong About as good as your gut last year whenever you called for 4"-8" of Snow. You were always so sure? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 18z GFS solid north bump . We’ll see what ens do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 18z GFS solid north bump . We’ll see what ens do GEFS still mainly off the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Just hoping for rain but snow would be a bonus. Sick of the same boring thing every day.. pattern going forward looks better 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 18z GFS solid north bump . We’ll see what ens do Well if it does bump North enough, and moves the cold front through, we can still get a good dowsing of rain from the front, and something that may be music to your ears..... it could give us some gusty winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Honestly right now we shouldn't be chasing flakes... Just any sort of precip to end the dry spell and fire risk (just my opinion)Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Honestly right now we shouldn't be chasing flakes... Just any sort of precip to end the dry spell and fire risk (just my opinion) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Water table issues are on my mind: stream and lake habitats, amount of water in wells, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Water table issues are on my mind: stream and lake habitats, amount of water in wells, etc.Yep...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Beer is on my mind 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 2 hours ago, UnitedWx said: I'll eat my ass if Torrington gets near half a foot from this current setup Sell, Sell, Sell Wow, you must do a lot of yoga. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer is on my mind People running dry up your way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said: Honestly right now we shouldn't be chasing flakes... Just any sort of precip to end the dry spell and fire risk (just my opinion) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Welcome back, hope you had a good warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 24 minutes ago, BrianW said: People running dry up your way. Burning and drying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Burning and drying You on well Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: You on well Kevin? Yeah but so far so good. And I watered until Helloween . Then I stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 The road to the woodyard was closed when I showed up for work. First nearby fire. 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 It's amazing that there haven't been more fires. I'm watering our two year old rhododendrons because the leaves are shriveling from the drought. The watering helps. Going to mulch them so the water is retained better. The soil under the leaves in the narrow belt of woods between our place and the road is like dust. I hope that the rain coming our way is enough to put at least a dent in the drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Yeah but so far so good. And I watered until Helloween . Then I stopped Still washing the Ram?Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Don’t worry. Plenty of rain coming for sne this winter. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 20 minutes ago, kdxken said: The road to the woodyard was closed when I showed up for work. First nearby fire. Yes!! Enjoy ! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Still washing the Ram? Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Always . These days wiping it down daily to get the dust off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 03:42 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:42 AM 2 hours ago, kdxken said: The road to the woodyard was closed when I showed up for work. First nearby fire. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:20 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:20 AM 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Monday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:51 AM 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cut that by 75% and move it 100mi NW and it may work out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Monday at 10:30 AM Share Posted Monday at 10:30 AM Down to 32F this am, sort of surprised there is no ref flag warning this am with potential winds today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 11:23 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:23 AM 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Monday at 11:29 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:29 AM 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z Euro Until the Euro has been unburdened by what has been (upgrades) I'll believe it when I see it EDIT: wait, where are you seeing snow on the Euro for this general area? I don't see anything... unless mine is stuck on last run?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted Monday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:49 AM 38 for the low/clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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