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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:


That gfs run showing the end of the dry period, seasonal cool and multiple chances could certainly unite us. Is that the -nao doing its thing?


.

it's really more of a whole sale hemispheric reconstruction rather than just the nao switching mode. 

it's really complex... not to bog anyone down with tl;dr popsicle headaches, i'll try to make it just a sentence or two:  

the -nao is really the non-linear wave function transmitted via wave dispersion mechanics, down stream of the e pacific.  we can see it now.. the nao is already negative and the -pna is ongoing - albeit about to fall apart

image.png.aa86011a3b1b5b70e0fd238be372c7a1.png

 

bit longer version:  ..SO, the ongoing -pna trough loading into the west has a waa consequence by l/w mechanics, which sends height anomalies over eastern Canada.  one has to also not just look for this in black and white circumstances... it is nuanced... sometimes it isn't as coherent as we are just lucky enough to have as an example ( this abv is the 36 hour euro ens mean off the 12z run cycle) 

lol.   oh man.  it's true tho.   just basically there is a change with an arriving +pna.  it is coupling with vestigial -nao, which is once that block has materialized ... it then is a positive feedback --> synergy/constructive interference.  it is why-for the changing of the guard... ending the dry era with a ( potential ) 2-3" event.  this deep vortex here at 130 hrs (blw) is the result of all this

image.png.164860bebd232ea348c8a0f6b4f9e680.png

the chances after that are interesting... the west pacific oscillation is not in any hurry to recover.  in fact, i've been monitoring ...the extended ranges keep collapsing the index back negative for every day that appears over the outer model horizon. it's not hugely negative, but negative nonetheless.   the 12z ens of the euro and gefs ... both show a low frequency -pna returning, but .. there is a low frequency -epo ( which is probably lag coupled with the wpo, because that is the nature progression).   so the pacific is split between an over arcing cold signal, and a warm one tunneling underneath. 

the one underneath...that actually is the resonance signal for -nao. 

putting all this together, this is mm... moderately intriguing if a winter enthusiast going after this weekend's thing and through tgiving week.  perhaps into the first while of december.

as an after thought...this is the last 3-5 days of trend analysis.   these large mass field indicators can also change.  but for now ... etc

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah very little doubt it rains Thursday. My gut just says the soaking rain  say .75 higher are up north .  These almost always  trend north  . Hopefully my gut is very wrong 

About as good as your gut last year whenever you called for 4"-8" of Snow. You were always so sure? 

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6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Honestly right now we shouldn't be chasing flakes... Just any sort of precip to end the dry spell and fire risk (just my opinion)

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Water table issues are on my mind: stream and lake habitats, amount of water in wells, etc.

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It's amazing that there haven't been more fires. I'm watering our two year old rhododendrons because the leaves are shriveling from the drought. The watering helps. Going to mulch them so the water is retained better. The soil under the leaves in the narrow belt of woods between our place and the road is like dust. I hope that the rain coming our way is enough to put at least a dent in the drought.

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