Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[mahk_webstah]

21 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I'll eat my ass if Torrington gets near half a foot from this current setup Sell, Sell, Sell

You a gymnast or yogi?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

That gfs run showing the end of the dry period, seasonal cool and multiple chances could certainly unite us. Is that the -nao doing its thing?


.

it's really more of a whole sale hemispheric reconstruction rather than just the nao switching mode. 

it's really complex... not to bog anyone down with tl;dr popsicle headaches, i'll try to make it just a sentence or two:  

the -nao is really the non-linear wave function transmitted via wave dispersion mechanics, down stream of the e pacific.  we can see it now.. the nao is already negative and the -pna is ongoing - albeit about to fall apart

 

bit longer version:  ..SO, the ongoing -pna trough loading into the west has a waa consequence by l/w mechanics, which sends height anomalies over eastern Canada.  one has to also not just look for this in black and white circumstances... it is nuanced... sometimes it isn't as coherent as we are just lucky enough to have as an example ( this abv is the 36 hour euro ens mean off the 12z run cycle) 

lol.   oh man.  it's true tho.   just basically there is a change with an arriving +pna.  it is coupling with vestigial -nao, which is once that block has materialized ... it then is a positive feedback --> synergy/constructive interference.  it is why-for the changing of the guard... ending the dry era with a ( potential ) 2-3" event.  this deep vortex here at 130 hrs (blw) is the result of all this

the chances after that are interesting... the west pacific oscillation is not in any hurry to recover.  in fact, i've been monitoring ...the extended ranges keep collapsing the index back negative for every day that appears over the outer model horizon. it's not hugely negative, but negative nonetheless.   the 12z ens of the euro and gefs ... both show a low frequency -pna returning, but .. there is a low frequency -epo ( which is probably lag coupled with the wpo, because that is the nature progression).   so the pacific is split between an over arcing cold signal, and a warm one tunneling underneath. 

the one underneath...that actually is the resonance signal for -nao. 

putting all this together, this is mm... moderately intriguing if a winter enthusiast going after this weekend's thing and through tgiving week.  perhaps into the first while of december.

as an after thought...this is the last 3-5 days of trend analysis.   these large mass field indicators can also change.  but for now ... etc

 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah very little doubt it rains Thursday. My gut just says the soaking rain  say .75 higher are up north .  These almost always  trend north  . Hopefully my gut is very wrong 

About as good as your gut last year whenever you called for 4"-8" of Snow. You were always so sure? 

[Damage In Tolland]

18z GFS solid north bump . We’ll see what ens do 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

18z GFS solid north bump . We’ll see what ens do 

GEFS still mainly off the coast

[ineedsnow]

Just hoping for rain but snow would be a bonus.  Sick of the same boring thing every day.. pattern going forward looks better

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

18z GFS solid north bump . We’ll see what ens do 

Well if it does bump North enough, and moves the cold front through, we can still get a good dowsing of rain from the front, and something that may be music to your ears..... it could give us some gusty winds

[Prismshine Productions]

Honestly right now we shouldn't be chasing flakes... Just any sort of precip to end the dry spell and fire risk (just my opinion)

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[monadnocks]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Honestly right now we shouldn't be chasing flakes... Just any sort of precip to end the dry spell and fire risk (just my opinion)

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Water table issues are on my mind: stream and lake habitats, amount of water in wells, etc.

[Prismshine Productions]

Water table issues are on my mind: stream and lake habitats, amount of water in wells, etc.

Yep...

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[Damage In Tolland]

Beer is on my mind 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

I'll eat my ass if Torrington gets near half a foot from this current setup Sell, Sell, Sell

Wow, you must do a lot of yoga. 
 

[BrianW]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beer is on my mind 

People running dry up your way. 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Honestly right now we shouldn't be chasing flakes... Just any sort of precip to end the dry spell and fire risk (just my opinion)

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Welcome back, hope you had a good warm season.  

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, BrianW said:

People running dry up your way. 

 

Burning and drying 

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Burning and drying 

You on well Kevin?

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You on well Kevin?

Yeah but so far so good. And I watered until Helloween . Then I stopped 

[kdxken]

The road to the woodyard was closed when I showed up for work. First nearby fire. 

 

[J Paul Gordon]

It's amazing that there haven't been more fires. I'm watering our two year old rhododendrons because the leaves are shriveling from the drought. The watering helps. Going to mulch them so the water is retained better. The soil under the leaves in the narrow belt of woods between our place and the road is like dust. I hope that the rain coming our way is enough to put at least a dent in the drought.

[Lava Rock]

Yeah but so far so good. And I watered until Helloween . Then I stopped 

Still washing the Ram?

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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Don’t worry. Plenty of rain coming for sne this winter. 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The road to the woodyard was closed when I showed up for work. First nearby fire. 

 

Yes!! Enjoy !

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Still washing the Ram?

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Always . These days wiping it down daily to get the dust off 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

The road to the woodyard was closed when I showed up for work. First nearby fire. 

 

Nice

[MJO812]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cut that by 75% and move it 100mi NW and it may work out.