Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Rainy season starts just in time…

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Rainy season starts just in time…

 That’s funny,  I was thinking the same thing earlier. It does look like everybody gets a drink on Thursday and then the pattern looks a bit more active for a while.

we will see how long it lasts but it wouldn’t surprise me if ridging works its way back into the east.

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Finally an active pattern on the models going forward

I'm sure there's someone in this forum who thinks otherwise ....... Lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Let’s move that out a few more weeks and I’ll be happy.

[ORH_wxman]

Sell the clown maps hard on this type of setup. Mountains in VT/NH would do ok but lower down would struggled unless you really crank omega and this far out that’s gonna be iffy…esp with somewhat weak thermal gradients. You worry about disorganization in precip field. 
 

Plus, still a chance the whole thing ends up further north. I still think there’s a good chance for some flurries and snow showers around the ULL on the weekend though. Many have a good shot at first flakes. 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sell the clown maps hard on this type of setup. Mountains in VT/NH would do ok but lower down would struggled unless you really crank omega and this far out that’s gonna be iffy…esp with somewhat weak thermal gradients. You worry about disorganization in precip field. 
 

Plus, still a chance the whole thing ends up further north. I still think there’s a good chance for some flurries and snow showers around the ULL on the weekend though. Many have a good shot at first flakes. 

I agree..... Let's at least get the precip regardless of the type it is. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sell the clown maps hard on this type of setup. Mountains in VT/NH would do ok but lower down would struggled unless you really crank omega and this far out that’s gonna be iffy…esp with somewhat weak thermal gradients. You worry about disorganization in precip field. 
 

Plus, still a chance the whole thing ends up further north. I still think there’s a good chance for some flurries and snow showers around the ULL on the weekend though. Many have a good shot at first flakes. 

That seems most likely. Band of showers in SNE with heavier rains NNE

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sell the clown maps hard on this type of setup ALWAYS. They're nothing but pure garbage and lead to unnecessary hype and are a detriment to the field of forecasting because everyone just runs to snow maps and then whine and cry bust when the snow maps bust then blame for the forecast models for sucking. Mountains in VT/NH would do ok but lower down would struggled unless you really crank omega and this far out that’s gonna be iffy…esp with somewhat weak thermal gradients. You worry about disorganization in precip field. 
 

Plus, still a chance the whole thing ends up further north. I still think there’s a good chance for some flurries and snow showers around the ULL on the weekend though. Many have a good shot at first flakes. 

1000% 

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sell the clown maps hard on this type of setup. Mountains in VT/NH would do ok but lower down would struggled unless you really crank omega and this far out that’s gonna be iffy…esp with somewhat weak thermal gradients. You worry about disorganization in precip field. 
 

Plus, still a chance the whole thing ends up further north. I still think there’s a good chance for some flurries and snow showers around the ULL on the weekend though. Many have a good shot at first flakes. 

Just loop 925mb temps then look at that snow map and it’s like .

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just loop 925mb temps then look at that snow map and it’s like .

You can’t reason with the weenies 

[MJO812]

Euro is very active moving forward also. Interior NY gets hit with plowable snow next week

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is very active moving forward also. Interior NY gets hit with plowable snow next week

when?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

when?

Far interior 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Far interior 

and a closing off H5 low over Michigan with an occluding system, sfc temps barely in the mid 30s [in the high terrain], with 925 temperatures around -0C is going to produce that? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The weeks of dryness have made yard cleanup easier.  The leaf blowing is effortless, like moving feathers.

What a stunning day for mid-November!

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The weeks of dryness have made yard cleanup easier.  The leaf blowing is effortless, like moving feathers.

What a stunning day for mid-November!

Sat outside for a few hour earlier, just a sunning day. A little breezy at times but manageable. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sat outside for a few hour earlier, just a sunning day. A little breezy at times but manageable. 

62/26 right now.  Desert dry.  
Probably our last 60’s until Christmas week. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

62/26 right now.  Desert dry.  
Probably our last 60’s until Christmas week. 

Should see some lower 60's around tomorrow but yeah could be our last 60's for a bit...probably Christmas like you said  

[ORH_wxman]

Forgetting about next week’s system for a minute, the EPS continue to trend too toward a colder start to December (and very end of November) 

This is actually looking a lot colder from a hemispheric pattern perspective than even a few runs ago. We’ll see how it looks as we get closer but this would likely be an interesting pattern to follow in early December if it maintains. 
 

 

[bwt3650]

this goes for everyone … let’s let it go 
no one’s changing any minds or moving any needles. 
just agree to disagree and move on to something fun. 
 

That gfs run showing the end of the dry period, seasonal cool and multiple chances could certainly unite us. Is that the -nao doing its thing?


.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:

That gfs run showing the end of the dry period, seasonal cool and multiple chances could certainly unite us. Is that the -nao doing its thing?


.

DIT... Maybe this will give you some hope!? 

[brooklynwx99]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forgetting about next week’s system for a minute, the EPS continue to trend too toward a colder start to December (and very end of November) 

This is actually looking a lot colder from a hemispheric pattern perspective than even a few runs ago. We’ll see how it looks as we get closer but this would likely be an interesting pattern to follow in early December if it maintains. 
 

 

yeah seeing the persistent troughing over Japan and N of HI is encouraging. the PDO would also continue to rise if these troughs were to develop. nice seeing the cross polar flow as well... we've had ineffective -EPOs with a +WPO alongside them in recent years

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

DIT... Maybe this will give you some hope!? 

Our friend will ride historic drought persistence until he’s wading through waist deep water in his basement. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Our friend will ride historic drought persistence until he’s wading through waist deep water in his basement. 

Until it happens it hasn’t 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Until it happens it hasn’t 

Dry beget dry?  
We all will get some rain on Thursday. 
TBD if it’s over or under .25”

Hard to say beyond that but models are showing a more active pattern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Dry beget dry?  
We all will get some rain on Thursday. 
TBD if it’s over or under .25”

Hard to say beyond that but models are showing a more active pattern. 

Yeah very little doubt it rains Thursday. My gut just says the soaking rain  say .75 higher are up north .  These almost always  trend north  . Hopefully my gut is very wrong 

[Lava Rock]

High of 60F. Did yardwork in tee-shirt. Just feels very wrong based on the date on calendar. Avg high 48F.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Far interior 

I'll eat my ass if Torrington gets near half a foot from this current setup Sell, Sell, Sell

[eduggs]

Remember these 3rd party snow maps simply convert modeled frozen precipitation to snow at a 10:1 ratio. So it's entirely possible the model itself is correct in showing a snow ptype for 12 hours at 33-36F that doesn't accumulate at all.

[kdxken]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah very little doubt it rains Thursday. My gut just says the soaking rain  say .75 higher are up north .  These almost always  trend north  . Hopefully my gut is very wrong 

Usually is.