Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it'll be interesting watching these operational models engineer nothing out of a +pna/-nao loading pattern going forward.  

but, can't say this wasn't suspected.   i spent more time than i should writing about the all but dependable cold loss in guidance, when moving patterns from the ext into mid range just the other day.

also, those upside-down lows, with snow on the under belly in drilling west wind, and warm ( relatively so...) rains wrapped around the n side ( 120 hours) will tend to really go one way or the other. that's an unusual/rare verification as is.  my guess in this case it goes to just rain.   this is a -2, western limbed -nao with under running +pnap, after novie 15 ... where's the cold air.

WTTTE 

[weatherwiz]

Might watch the Bruins game outside today 

[weatherwiz]

Actually probably not, the Sun will be on the other side of the house and it will get chilly shaded over. Damn you cold

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually probably not, the Sun will be on the other side of the house and it will get chilly shaded over. Damn you cold

Time for you to move to Florida, or put on 60lbs. 

[Lava Rock]

Boston is now just 5 days away from hitting the 1000 day mark since its last snowfall of greater than 4 inches...

Ever happen before?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Time for you to move to Florida, or put on 60lbs. 

Umm how about both  

[jbenedet]

Man what a perfect day for a local hike. No leaves on the trees makes for more sunny areas and the bugs are all gone thanks to a few freezes.

[ORH_wxman]

Decent chance of first flakes for many next weekend with that deep ULL moving overhead. Prob no accumulation but the novelty is always there on first flakes of the season. 
 

No true arctic cold in sight until you flip the EPO/WPO region (broken record the last 2-3 winters) but you’ll at least get some seasonably coldish weather for a few days when you have a ULL like that overhead. 

[Typhoon Tip]

fwiw .. .the 12z gefs and cmc ens means are significantly more deep with that closing southern component rex configuration next week ...  this looks like it's trying to head toward a triple point nor'easter that abandons an old inland center type synoptic evolution.   

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fwiw .. .the 12z gefs and cmc ens means are significantly more deep with that closing southern component rex configuration next week ...  this looks like it's trying to head toward a triple point nor'easter that abandons a old inland center type synoptic evolution.   

That’s starting to be a tad interesting…be nice to break the monotony of 3 months of stellar weather…I mean even great weather for 3 months can get old too. Lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent chance of first flakes for many next weekend with that deep ULL moving overhead. Prob no accumulation but the novelty is always there on first flakes of the season. 
 

No true arctic cold in sight until you flip the EPO/WPO region (broken record the last 2-3 winters) but you’ll at least get some seasonably coldish weather for a few days when you have a ULL like that overhead. 

Even with each run shifting the ULL north ? GFS has it well north of where 6z was 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even with each run shifting the ULL north ? GFS has it well north of where 6z was 

With what Tip just posted it looks pretty nice in that ensemble depiction.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

With what Tip just posted it looks pretty nice in that ensemble depiction.  

I am thinking the ULL ends up tracking over NNE with the primary Lakes Cutter and a period of showers happens Thursday along the cold front . Similar to last Sunday night. Maybe Tip is right with the big Noreaster call. Time will reveal 

[rimetree]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fwiw .. .the 12z gefs and cmc ens means are significantly more deep with that closing southern component rex configuration next week ...  this looks like it's trying to head toward a triple point nor'easter that abandons a old inland center type synoptic evolution.   

Exaggerating but feels like that hasn't happened in 20 years

[dryslot]

Ha, When did the Euro start going out to hr 360?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, When did the Euro start going out to hr 360?

Last week

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, When did the Euro start going out to hr 360?

They supposedly upgraded it(lol), and that’s when that happened. 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am thinking the ULL ends up tracking over NNE with the primary Lakes Cutter and a period of showers happens Thursday along the cold front . Similar to last Sunday night. Maybe Tip is right with the big Noreaster call. Time will reveal 

You could certainly be correct on that.  
 

At some point though something will put an end to this 3 month long pattern. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even with each run shifting the ULL north ? GFS has it well north of where 6z was 

Even if it tracks a touch north of us it’s still a cyclonic flow with lots of clouds/snow showers/flurries. So yeah, unless it tracks way north, I’d still feel decent about many getting first flakes. I’m not talking accumulations. We’d need it tracking south of us to really talk about accumulating snow outside the upslope spots. 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Exaggerating but feels like that hasn't happened in 20 years

it's been rarefying, sure tho. 

correction to what Kevin just said... I did not 'make a call' for a 'big nor'easter'   - i made a generic implication interpretation of where those particular ensemble means appear to be trending. 

this is how the trump supporters create their fake realities and then believe in them.   someone prevaricates an interpretation, ...then, their audience, being of cutting edge sharp intellectual pedigree rural red origin as they are ... they go ahead and 'analyze' what's said and shockingly, can't come up with any reason to question it.   budda boom budda bing ... alternative reality is painted and the hapless contingent of morons are thusly guidance by an illusion

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even if it tracks a touch north of us it’s still a cyclonic flow with lots of clouds/snow showers/flurries. So yeah, unless it tracks way north, I’d still feel decent about many getting first flakes. I’m not talking accumulations. We’d need it tracking south of us to really talk about accumulating snow outside the upslope spots. 

i think his intentions are buckin' for 'saving' his dystopian drought fantasy - not snow this time...   lol

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's been rarefying, sure tho. 

correction to what Kevin just said... I did not 'make a call' for a 'big nor'easter'   - i made a generic implication interpretation of where those particular ensemble means appear to be trending. 

this is how the trump supporters create their fake realities and then believe in them.   someone prevaricates an interpretation, ...then, their audience, being of cutting edge sharp intellectual pedigree rural red origin ... they go ahead and 'analyze' what's said and shockingly, can't come up with any reason to question it.   budda boom budda bing ... alternative reality is painted and the hapless contingent of morons are thusly guidance by an illusion

 

Like this?

 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They supposedly upgraded it(lol), and that’s when that happened. 

It needs it.

[weatherwiz]

Getting a bit excited for Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a marginal risk with the D3 which comes out overnight Monday as long as things hold pat.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You could certainly be correct on that.  
 

At some point though something will put an end to this 3 month long pattern. 

i know what you mean .. but just sayn'   the "pattern" is highly likely to change. 

it may be transient and short lived... but, that is about as high on a statistical chi test for verification potential as is physically possible in modern technology with that west -nao block and deep trough running underneath.  

it's a matter of ironing out the details.   

see ... some times, you can be more certain about a mid or even extended range look.   this thing we're looking at with the north american set up was sniffed out 12 days ago actually, by pure index interpretation alone - i know..  i wrote about it.   and well, ... here we are, the operational runs emerged into that correlation.   that behavior alone is typically a higher confidence predictor.  etc...

it's when we're flying along with nothing to look at and no leading indicators, and then all the sudden ... d9 has a bomb that lasts for 3 days of guidance - but uh uh uh ... d5 it disappears. that was never a higher confidence - ... there's all kinds of examples in either direction.   the good fellas know which ones are which

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's been rarefying, sure tho. 

correction to what Kevin just said... I did not 'make a call' for a 'big nor'easter'   - i made a generic implication interpretation of where those particular ensemble means appear to be trending. 

this is how the trump supporters create their fake realities and then believe in them.   someone prevaricates an interpretation, ...then, their audience, being of cutting edge sharp intellectual pedigree rural red origin ... they go ahead and 'analyze' what's said and shockingly, can't come up with any reason to question it.   budda boom budda bing ... alternative reality is painted and the hapless contingent of morons are thusly guidance by an illusion

 

This is completely uncalled for.  I’m one of those supporters, and I don’t appreciate that.  Whether you like it or not, America spoke…LOUD N CLEAR. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is completely uncalled for.  I’m one of those supporters, and I don’t appreciate that.  Whether you like it or not, America spoke…LOUD N CLEAR. 

it was directed at kevin, because he attempted to spin what i said into a false impression/implication - and the twaddle that is out on social media that is consummately revealed by the trump supporter constituency as though it were fact, is preposterous dude.  sorry, it is -

as far as the other, america made a mistake - that can happen. 

and by the way... global warming is real, and it will cost humanity in increasing morality and destruction.  it is so real in fact, that many present day natural disasters can be mathematically ( you are school teacher - you should understand the incontrovertible aspect of math proof ) connected to wildly changing climate.  

[H2Otown_WX]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is completely uncalled for.  I’m one of those supporters, and I don’t appreciate that.  Whether you like it or not, America spoke…LOUD N CLEAR. 

Could this bit of news be influencing your opinion?

https://apnews.com/article/gray-wolves-protections-biden-trump-81084b1bba499d444950f8294880c524

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it was directed at kevin, because he attempted to spin what i said into a false impression/implication - and the twaddle that is out on social media that is consummately revealed by the trump supporter constituency as though it were fact, is preposterous dude.  sorry, it is -

as far as the other, america made a mistake - that can happen. 

No mistake there.  It’s a correction.  But we’ll leave it at that. I’m here to discuss the weather…nothing more. 

[weatherwiz]

This is the 500mb level and is displaying absolute vorticity and the height, in meters, the 500mb level can be found at