Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At some point it’s going to happen…the bigger question is, will you know which time is the real deal?  That would be much more impressive than just persistence. 

Shenipsit Reservoir that supplies some of Tolland and Vernon very low . Starting to see affects like this all over 

[NorEastermass128]

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/keithmahler1/status/1857549111500877935?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

So, since you're so confident that this won't happen. What are your thoughts? Are we not going to see rain at all for the rest of the winter? Is it going to stay warm for the majority of the winter? Enquiring minds want to know

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So, since you're so confident that this won't happen. What are your thoughts? Are we not going to see rain at all for the rest of the winter? Is it going to stay warm for the majority of the winter? Enquiring minds want to know

It may never rain again, ever!!

[powderfreak]

The Super Moon was pretty cool this evening.

Perfect "fake" cold conditions.  Clear, calm, full moon.  Those nights just have that vibe on the valley bottom.

[kdxken]

Off topic but does anyone know anything about Coyote behavior? All summer I've seen single coyotes or maybe a pair. Lately I've seen packs. Is this something they do in the winter?

 

 

[powderfreak]

Just textbook conditions for a cold night and woodfire smoke in the valley bottoms.

700-800ft frozen again tonight (frost made it through the day in the shade) with skim ice on ponds.

These would be snowmaking conditions, except the cold is in the wrong place.

 

Meanwhile up Mountain Road at the base of the ski area its 40F.  No snowmaking on the hill, while everyone in town thinks its a great cold night to make snow.  Sometimes the inversions definitely create perception issues around here.  "Why isn't the mountain making snow!?"

 

[dendrite]

Not calm here. The wind really ramped up in the last 90 mins. 15G25mph type stuff. Mixed right back up into the mid 40s.

[tunafish]

20 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Off topic but does anyone know anything about Coyote behavior? All summer I've seen single coyotes or maybe a pair. Lately I've seen packs. Is this something they do in the winter?

 

 

By no means an expert, but if one gets a kill you'll hear the whole pack howling.  So maybe they're on their way to a kill, or they hunt in packs in the cold season when food isn't as abundant?

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not calm here. The wind really ramped up in the last 90 mins. 15G25mph type stuff. Mixed right back up into the mid 40s.

Maybe we mix out up here too…that’s a solid breeze.

Guess the 18z Euro 925mb wind for 10pm does show a more pronounced mixed compressional flow in areas, wrapping around that upper level low in the Maritimes.

[wxeyeNH]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

weathermodels.com sucks 

I've used weatherbell for a few years. Happy with it but expensive 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Off topic but does anyone know anything about Coyote behavior? All summer I've seen single coyotes or maybe a pair. Lately I've seen packs. Is this something they do in the winter?

 

 

Where is that Ken?

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Where is that Ken?

Southington CT

[kdxken]

7 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Where is that Ken?

On my main trail.

[kdxken]

More folks and models pointing to rain late next week.

[CoastalWx]

Love the Bermuda high to start December on the GFS.

[Damage In Tolland]

Another move to more of a fropa for late week. 

[Lava Rock]

Another move to more of a fropa for late week. 

Gotta have faith

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Gotta have faith

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Like this?

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Probably at least a week for any meaningful precip.  

[Great Snow 1717]

Boston is now just 5 days away from hitting the 1000 day mark since its last snowfall of greater than 4 inches...

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Boston is now just 5 days away from hitting the 1000 day mark since its last snowfall of greater than 4 inches...

Sucks for them…right on the water there. 

[wx2fish]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/keithmahler1/status/1857549111500877935?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Ossipee was scheduled to be drawn down 3.25' in Oct. Alot of lakes get drawn down a few feet this time of year 

https://www.des.nh.gov/news-and-media/state-announces-its-2024-fall-drawdown-lakes

 

[Modfan2]

Down to 27F this morning here in the Valley in E CT; now up to 32F and calm currently with no wind

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Down to 27F this morning here in the Valley in E CT; now up to 32F and calm currently with no wind

Wow..that’s a pit there for sure. You guys decouple and radiate there well.  48 here already. 

[Typhoon Tip]

it'll be interesting watching these operational models engineer nothing out of a +pna/-nao loading pattern going forward.  

but, can't say this wasn't suspected.   i spent more time than i should writing about the all but dependable cold loss in guidance, when moving patterns from the ext into mid range just the other day.

also, those upside-down lows, with snow on the under belly in drilling west wind, and warm ( relatively so...) rains wrapped around the n side ( 120 hours) will tend to really go one way or the other. that's an unusual/rare verification as is.  my guess in this case it goes to just rain.   this is a -2, western limbed -nao with under running +pnap, after novie 15 ... where's the cold air.

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, kdxken said:

Off topic but does anyone know anything about Coyote behavior? All summer I've seen single coyotes or maybe a pair. Lately I've seen packs. Is this something they do in the winter?

Families, and there may be as many as 6 pups or more, though they usually get thinned out by fall.  Multi-family packs like wolves are uncommon for coyotes. 
Didn't happen this year, but the usual sequence here would be hearing the pups singing soprano in May then working down to a low alto by September.  

This morning was 20°+ milder than yesterday's 14.

[kdxken]

Can't complain about today. Absolute beauty.

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Can't complain about today. Absolute beauty.

It was dead calm here for a bit, but here is the breeze!