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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At some point it’s going to happen…the bigger question is, will you know which time is the real deal?  That would be much more impressive than just persistence. 

Shenipsit Reservoir that supplies some of Tolland and Vernon very low . Starting to see affects like this all over 

05BRDsm.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

So, since you're so confident that this won't happen. What are your thoughts? Are we not going to see rain at all for the rest of the winter? Is it going to stay warm for the majority of the winter? Enquiring minds want to know

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13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So, since you're so confident that this won't happen. What are your thoughts? Are we not going to see rain at all for the rest of the winter? Is it going to stay warm for the majority of the winter? Enquiring minds want to know

It may never rain again, ever!!

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Just textbook conditions for a cold night and woodfire smoke in the valley bottoms.

700-800ft frozen again tonight (frost made it through the day in the shade) with skim ice on ponds.

These would be snowmaking conditions, except the cold is in the wrong place.

Nov15_9pm_MVL.jpg.90a0b0767d9aedb1e544625e8228ba68.jpg

 

Meanwhile up Mountain Road at the base of the ski area its 40F.  No snowmaking on the hill, while everyone in town thinks its a great cold night to make snow.  Sometimes the inversions definitely create perception issues around here.  "Why isn't the mountain making snow!?"

Nov15_9pm.jpg.5d5dd0c7d1ab74001af1d95e82a01142.jpg

 

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20 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Off topic but does anyone know anything about Coyote behavior? All summer I've seen single coyotes or maybe a pair. Lately I've seen packs. Is this something they do in the winter?

 

 

20241114_133342.jpg

By no means an expert, but if one gets a kill you'll hear the whole pack howling.  So maybe they're on their way to a kill, or they hunt in packs in the cold season when food isn't as abundant?

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20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not calm here. The wind really ramped up in the last 90 mins. 15G25mph type stuff. Mixed right back up into the mid 40s.

Maybe we mix out up here too…that’s a solid breeze.

Guess the 18z Euro 925mb wind for 10pm does show a more pronounced mixed compressional flow in areas, wrapping around that upper level low in the Maritimes.

IMG_1359.thumb.png.2fa6fbdde4b957388c05a8fb9f1bf2ac.png

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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ossipee was scheduled to be drawn down 3.25' in Oct. Alot of lakes get drawn down a few feet this time of year 

https://www.des.nh.gov/news-and-media/state-announces-its-2024-fall-drawdown-lakes

 

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it'll be interesting watching these operational models engineer nothing out of a +pna/-nao loading pattern going forward.  

but, can't say this wasn't suspected.   i spent more time than i should writing about the all but dependable cold loss in guidance, when moving patterns from the ext into mid range just the other day.

also, those upside-down lows, with snow on the under belly in drilling west wind, and warm ( relatively so...) rains wrapped around the n side ( 120 hours) will tend to really go one way or the other. that's an unusual/rare verification as is.  my guess in this case it goes to just rain.   this is a -2, western limbed -nao with under running +pnap, after novie 15 ... where's the cold air.

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12 hours ago, kdxken said:

Off topic but does anyone know anything about Coyote behavior? All summer I've seen single coyotes or maybe a pair. Lately I've seen packs. Is this something they do in the winter?

Families, and there may be as many as 6 pups or more, though they usually get thinned out by fall.  Multi-family packs like wolves are uncommon for coyotes. 
Didn't happen this year, but the usual sequence here would be hearing the pups singing soprano in May then working down to a low alto by September.  

This morning was 20°+ milder than yesterday's 14.

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