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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. 

I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. 

I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow. 

fwiw - the ggem is east.  just sayn'

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah and who knows.   but it's e of the others.  i'd also note that the others are trending east - just not as aggressively.   ex, the ggem was over michigan wednesday's 12z

The upper evolution is interesting, that's for sure. 

I just question whether we have enough to yield a widespread synoptic rain. There undoubtedly would be a great deal of upward vertical motion but we may be lacking one key ingredient...and that's moisture to really lift. The greatest combo of lift/moisture would be on the leading edge of the dry slot with the cold front where you have also a narrow wedge of instability. 

We'll see what happens though, I would not be shocked if we see an entirely different presentation come Sunday. 

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like models could show 3-6” of water just 24 hours out and you’d still be chained in Stein’s shed… “it’ll fall apart in the next 12 hours”…

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

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58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

tomorrow could be a big fire day 

.RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* AFFECTED AREA...All of southern New England.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph later
  Saturday morning into the afternoon.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum Saturday afternoon relative
  humidities will be between 15 and 25 percent.
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57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

At some point it’s going to happen…the bigger question is, will you know which time is the real deal?  That would be much more impressive than just persistence. 

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