Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[weatherwiz]

One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. 

I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. 

I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow. 

fwiw - the ggem is east.  just sayn'

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z EPS mean is .75 to 1.00 inch for most of SNE     just hoping for some rain

This will morph into a fropa with showers like this past Sunday night. Already moving that direction .

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This will morph into a fropa with showers like this past Sunday night. Already moving that direction .

I'm really hope you are wrong. Something has to give. We need the precip real bad!

[Ginx snewx]

It gonna snow in NNE

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm really hope you are wrong. Something has to give. We need the precip real bad!

Too much ridging in the East offshore and north 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Too much ridging in the East offshore and north 

Totally Totally different setup. 

[bwt3650]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally Totally different setup. 

are you aboard tip's pattern change/reshuffle train going into thanksgiving week?

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

fwiw - the ggem is east.  just sayn'

end of week?

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally Totally different setup. 

Not really 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It gonna snow in NNE

Probably cold enough to. Just a matter of making sure things aren’t squashed from the -SAO. Stein Arctic Oscillation

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It gonna snow in NNE

Could be EPOhno like Euro has and a Torchgiving

[Go Kart Mozart]

36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

end of week?

Boundary is warm, but it would be a Stein-buster!

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

end of week?

yeah and who knows.   but it's e of the others.  i'd also note that the others are trending east - just not as aggressively.   ex, the ggem was over michigan wednesday's 12z

[Typhoon Tip]

that thing goes from ~ 990 mb to 960 mb in 10 hours   lol

challenges believability a little but we'll see

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah and who knows.   but it's e of the others.  i'd also note that the others are trending east - just not as aggressively.   ex, the ggem was over michigan wednesday's 12z

The upper evolution is interesting, that's for sure. 

I just question whether we have enough to yield a widespread synoptic rain. There undoubtedly would be a great deal of upward vertical motion but we may be lacking one key ingredient...and that's moisture to really lift. The greatest combo of lift/moisture would be on the leading edge of the dry slot with the cold front where you have also a narrow wedge of instability. 

We'll see what happens though, I would not be shocked if we see an entirely different presentation come Sunday. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

are you aboard tip's pattern change/reshuffle train going into thanksgiving week?

Somethings  happening here what it is ain't exactly clear

[Ginx snewx]

12 z Euro starnet has a 522 going underneath us. You know the rules if correct 

[Go Kart Mozart]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Somethings  happening here what it is ain't exactly clear

There's a man with a torch over there, telling me I gotta stand clear

We gotta stop children, what's that sound?

It ain't snowflakes hittin the ground...

[Damage In Tolland]

Don’t do it. Do not buy the cold 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

12 z Euro starnet has a 522 going underneath us. You know the rules if correct 

A colder rain

[cleetussnow]

Give me that look in 6 weeks please.  Which will also probably be rain…

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t do it. Do not buy the cold 

 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be EPOhno like Euro has and a Torchgiving

Go warm 

[Damage In Tolland]

And sell the soaking rainer. Each day will turn more into a fropa 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And sell the soaking rainer. Each day will turn more into a fropa 

I feel like models could show 3-6” of water just 24 hours out and you’d still be chained in Stein’s shed… “it’ll fall apart in the next 12 hours”…

[bwt3650]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like models could show 3-6” of water just 24 hours out and you’d still be chained in Stein’s shed… “it’ll fall apart in the next 12 hours”…

persistence forecasting...you're a genius til you're not.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like models could show 3-6” of water just 24 hours out and you’d still be chained in Stein’s shed… “it’ll fall apart in the next 12 hours”…

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

[ineedsnow]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

tomorrow could be a big fire day 

.RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* AFFECTED AREA...All of southern New England.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph later
  Saturday morning into the afternoon.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum Saturday afternoon relative
  humidities will be between 15 and 25 percent.

[WinterWolf]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 

At some point it’s going to happen…the bigger question is, will you know which time is the real deal?  That would be much more impressive than just persistence.