Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[FXWX]

48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It would be great if there was a wider selection for option, especially for winter weather forecasting. The winter weather selection just consists of snow maps, Ptype, and sleet accumulation. They have the basics for each level but I think COD (which is free) is far superior and has much better graphics...must easier visually. 

For $10/month it isn't bad because that comes with access to city charts and forecasts for teleconnections. I do like the EPS products for tropical and what they have for ensemble information but I think something like Ray mentioned, f5 plus weatherbell is the better route to go. 

 

COD is probably the best free site; Pivotal is decent and the upgrade to premium is relatively cheap.  That being said, WxBell is my default but price keeps ticking up.  I'd love to see a site that combines the best features on COD, Tropical Tidbits, and WxBell.  I've asked WxBell about adding some of the cross-sectional options, vv, advection and/or fronto maps found on COD / Tropical Tidbits.  But they have never responded positively.  I find Weather.us to be tedious.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

COD is probably the best free site; Pivotal is decent and the upgrade to premium is relatively cheap.  That being said, WxBell is my default but price keeps ticking up.  I'd love to see a site that combines the best features on COD, Tropical Tidbits, and WxBell.  I've asked WxBell about adding some of the cross-sectional options, vv, advection and/or fronto maps found on COD / Tropical Tidbits.  But they have never responded positively.  I find Weather.us to be tedious.

F5 has that.

https://www.f5wx.com/

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

what a monster on the 12z CMC

yeah... it's trend continuance actually.   there's been a tendency among all guidance ( for that matter ... ) for this pattern change-leading h.a. system to punch east of previous guidance.  this one has a deep pva generate height response e of cape may nj at this point - furthest e yet.  if it were not for the others also doing some of this east trend, i would roll eyes at the source but -

again, lacking cold air... but that solution is like the canonical autumn page turning nor'easter of olden days.   we used to depend on one block buster in autumn that was cold rain ... and one in late march that's wet/blue snow  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... it's trend continuance actually.   there's been a tendency among all guidance ( for that matter ... ) for this pattern change-leading h.a. system to punch east of previous guidance.  this one has a deep pva generate height response e of cape may nj at this point. 

again, lacking cold air... but that solution is like the canonical autumn page turning nor'easter of olden days.   we used to depend on one block buster in autumn that was cold rain ... and one in late march that's wet/blue snow  

I'll never forget that November 1995 bomb that gave Pittsburgh, PA like 2 feet.

[CoastalWx]

Give me my 850-500 VV/RH like Wright Weather has and I’ll give you the deformation dandy forecast. That was such a game changer. 

[CoastalWx]

Wright Weather is well out of my cost lol. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Wright Weather is well out of my cost lol. 
 

 

F5 has products like that.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

COD is probably the best free site; Pivotal is decent and the upgrade to premium is relatively cheap.  That being said, WxBell is my default but price keeps ticking up.  I'd love to see a site that combines the best features on COD, Tropical Tidbits, and WxBell.  I've asked WxBell about adding some of the cross-sectional options, vv, advection and/or fronto maps found on COD / Tropical Tidbits.  But they have never responded positively.  I find Weather.us to be tedious.

A combo of those three would be phenomenal. One negative about COD too which I forgot to mention is it is not mobile friendly...at all. Several years back I believe a husband and wife had developed a mobile version and it was in the beta stages and there was an app...it wasn't bad. But I believe they ended up getting divorced and it died. 

I wonder how much better cod will become. What helps them is its the College of DuPage which developed it so 

1) As long as they continue to receive adequate budget funding 

2) If you're a student there and interested in modeling and development, what a freaking phenomenal opportunity to have. Imaging putting on a resume you helped build/develop products? 

3) Also being freely offered - they probably aren't as cocky as some of these private vendors who all they care about is generating revenue and are going to create products to suck in the weenies. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll never forget that November 1995 bomb that gave Pittsburgh, PA like 2 feet.

i don't recall that one.  huh -    i was up at uml, probably heads down on how what was clearly going to be a historic front loader was going to effect us here in eastern sne, being why-for the distraction. 

but i do recall a steady diet of nickling threats kicking in early-ish in novie, then not seeing bear ground until the thaw of late jan, '96

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

pretty fat recovery today too.   big diurnal swing.   21 at 4 am and now 54 type rise at these home stations within a mile of me... but this spread matches kfit identically

zip wind ...even the sloped sun of solar min is offering some nape affect out there. 

From 14 to 50 here, maybe a 40-span?  More cloud than blue now, so probably not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i don't recall that one.  huh -    i was up at uml, probably heads down on how what was clearly going to be a historic front loader was going to effect us here in eastern sne, being why-for the distraction. 

but i do recall a steady diet of nickling threats kicking in early-ish in novie, then not seeing bear ground until the thaw of late jan, '96

Yea, I had like 4-5" of slop in early November and didn't look back until mid Jan.

[FXWX]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

F5 has that.

https://www.f5wx.com/

It's the only site I've never played around with...  Thanks, going to give it a look...

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A combo of those three would be phenomenal. One negative about COD too which I forgot to mention is it is not mobile friendly...at all. Several years back I believe a husband and wife had developed a mobile version and it was in the beta stages and there was an app...it wasn't bad. But I believe they ended up getting divorced and it died. 

I wonder how much better cod will become. What helps them is its the College of DuPage which developed it so 

1) As long as they continue to receive adequate budget funding 

2) If you're a student there and interested in modeling and development, what a freaking phenomenal opportunity to have. Imaging putting on a resume you helped build/develop products? 

3) Also being freely offered - they probably aren't as cocky as some of these private vendors who all they care about is generating revenue and are going to create products to suck in the weenies. 

Thanks Wiz...  Agree with the mobile situation, but rarely travel out of the office without a laptop...  You are correct about the arrogance of a couple of the bigger companies.  I actually had the contact ask me why I would like to see the layout of the 700 mb vv or advection fields!!!

[metagraphica]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... it's trend continuance actually.   there's been a tendency among all guidance ( for that matter ... ) for this pattern change-leading h.a. system to punch east of previous guidance.  this one has a deep pva generate height response e of cape may nj at this point - furthest e yet.  if it were not for the others also doing some of this east trend, i would roll eyes at the source but -

again, lacking cold air... but that solution is like the canonical autumn page turning nor'easter of olden days.   we used to depend on one block buster in autumn that was cold rain ... and one in late march that's wet/blue snow  

mid 40s to low 50s and a few inches of rain over 12+ hours would be perfect for SNE.  Let's do it!!

[Typhoon Tip]

the gfs is doing something suggestive of the back ground forcing here.   

the -nao is western limb in the physical exertion - you can coherently see the +2 sd block over baffin island/vicinity up there... but that places the best telecon for coupled nadir between the del marva and ns/canada.  

meanwhile, the archembaultian amplitude *there's a concurrent +d(pna) going on* is coring out a deep dawg over pa.   that can happen buut, it is in fact stressed - the better correlation is farther e with that.  it may be seasonal/wave spacing, where this early in the season ... shorter distances causing more meridian flow so things close off early. 

interesting that the ggem is spot on the correlation tho -

anyway, the gfs seems to respond to the back ground governing kinematics by attempting a new deepening se of cape code as that whole mess rotates through.   the homage to the back ground forcing is more telling than the actual depiction throughout - in other words ... possibly signaling the direction of the correction vector

[CoastalWx]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I had like 4-5" of slop in early November and didn't look back until mid Jan.

I don't think we'll ever see such a violent evisceration of snowpack again. Two monster cutters that featured thunder and wind damage destroying a 40"+ pack in many areas. I mean, if you are going to melt a top tier snowpack, may as well go out like that. 

[CoastalWx]

It's funny because of all the talk we hear about snowpack keeping things inverted etc. Nope, cutter didn't give a fook. Some of the best gales from a cutter that I can remember.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's funny because of all the talk we hear about snowpack keeping things inverted etc. Nope, cutter didn't give a fook. Some of the best gales from a cutter that I can remember.

The amplitude and physics of that whole set up probably just overwhelmed all of the minute, in-situ dynamics.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The amplitude and physics of that whole set up probably just overwhelmed all of the minute, in-situ dynamics.

Definitely. I do remember after the last one just looking out at patches and feeling like someone who walked out of their bunker after a nuclear bomb was dropped. Just a devastated weenie.

[Typhoon Tip]

something similar happened in jan 1994 after that decent late dec to mid jan winter expression suffered a cutter and we soared to 62 f by 9pm ( 9 at dawn with snow grains earlier that day, i shit you nae ) with tree leaning white noise turbine gusts.  

there was steam rollin' off the snow banks.   i saw the same thing then, too

there's thaws.  then there's fire-hose thaws -

[CoastalWx]

That month was special to me as it truly marked the end of the incessant talk from my parents about how "winters aren't what they used to be, it doesn't snow like it used to, Blizzard of 78" blah blah blah.  It finally shut them up lol. Feb 94 was good...but I was just outside of the epic CJ in coastal Plymouth county, being in Brockton.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

something similar happened in jan 1994 after that decent late dec to mid jan winter expression suffered a cutter and we soared to 62 f by 9pm ( 9 at dawn with snow grains earlier that day, i shit you nae ) with tree leaning white noise turbine gusts.  

there was steam rollin' off the snow banks.   i saw the same thing then, too

there's thaws.  then there's fire-hose thaws -

That was a good one too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

something similar happened in jan 1994 after that decent late dec to mid jan winter expression suffered a cutter and we soared to 62 f by 9pm ( 9 at dawn with snow grains earlier that day, i shit you nae ) with tree leaning white noise turbine gusts.  

there was steam rollin' off the snow banks.   i saw the same thing then, too

there's thaws.  then there's fire-hose thaws -

Yea, it began as snow and I remember transitioned to a driving, freezing rain in the teens by like 5am, when I had awakened for school...which didn't happen. Then by afternoon there was ponding everywhere and in the 50s.

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro is meh compared to other models for the end of the week

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro is meh compared to other models for the end of the week

I wouldn't count on anything exciting.

[tamarack]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think we'll ever see such a violent evisceration of snowpack again. Two monster cutters that featured thunder and wind damage destroying a 40"+ pack in many areas. I mean, if you are going to melt a top tier snowpack, may as well go out like that. 

1995-96 had 5 months, DEC-APR, with Jekyll-Hyde character.  Data from Gardiner, Maine:

Dates   Avg Temp  + or -   Precip   Snow
12/1-21       17.5       -5.4     3.99"    40.6"
1/1-16          8.3      -9.8      2.03"    27.5"
2/1-19       12.7       -6.3      1.17"      11.3"
3/1-11        17.5       -7.5       1.93"    24.5"
4/1-14       36.1       -3.5      2.44"   23.5"
Avg/Tot     17.8       -6.4     11.56"  127.4"   81 days

12/22-31   25.6      +5.4     0.20"     2.6"
1/17-31      25.6      +6.6     4.75"     4.6"
2/20-29    34.7      +11.1     3.85"     0.0"
3/12-31      34.8      +2.4     1.06"     2.0"
4/15-30     46.6      +1.9     4.72"     0.0"
Avg/Tot     34.2      +4.8   14.58"     7.6"   71 days

1995-96 produced 138.8", the most of our 13 winters in Gardiner and 30.4" more than #2 (92-93).  However, 95-96 ranks only 5th for SDDs thanks to all the thaws.

[ineedsnow]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn't count on anything exciting.

12z EPS mean is .75 to 1.00 inch for most of SNE     just hoping for some rain

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z EPS mean is .75 to 1.00 inch for most of SNE     just hoping for some rain

6 days out tho’ 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z EPS mean is .75 to 1.00 inch for most of SNE     just hoping for some rain

Yeah the rain aspect, sure. That's reasonable.

[WinterWolf]

Ya..give us a decent drink of rain.