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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s all mixed up, at all different heights there. 

Definitely variable but I always think of mixed up (mixing) as a normal dry adiabatic lapse rate.  With good mixing it would be much easier to forecast these temps.  Cold up high and a consistent trend of warmer temps as you head downward.

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30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Definitely variable but I always think of mixed up (mixing) as a normal dry adiabatic lapse rate.  With good mixing it would be much easier to forecast these temps.  Cold up high and a consistent trend of warmer temps as you head downward.

Very good point. So no mixing going on there, just inversions happening at all different levels. 

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53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is pretty interesting that the month is +5.8 (!!) here at the MVL ASOS, but 6 of 13 days have been below normal?

-1 to -5… or +13 to +26.

Those are the current options.

 

Warmth always wins. Sorry to those who don’t believe it. 

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ooz euro and gfs oscillating toward the colder side of the a index range though for beyond the 21st ...

i get it that we should go above for a bit in the foreground.  however, this isn't like the earlier balloonings to +15+ c 850s over the top of a cc height dome this time.  we're only recovering to half that - so it looks at this time. 

then we'll see if the pattern change is stable in future guidance.  still a long ways, but it's impressive to see the weight of the euro and gfs ens means ( both ...) similar on this set up below,

image.png.c46dedd7854f2190ee5dc65803a5d916.png

which is actually already corrected the 500 mb e enough that given a month and more antecedent cold we'd be talking about a major potential.  as is, a slug of cold rain with wrap around hill top frosting.  but that's a deep western limb -nao.   notice also the -epo formulating over the alaskan sector - watch that for a cold load

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