Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[CoastalWx]

What’s the big deal with saying first half of December may suck, but later on in the month looks more favorable? First half usually sucks anyways. 

[CoastalWx]

Why don’t people scream and yell at me for my thoughts later in December? Oh that’s right, because I said it could be favorable and this place is loaded with weenies. No howling and growling there lol.
 

[CoastalWx]

The Irony is that the mild down later on in the month was forecasted 5-6 weeks out and then faded up until a couple of days ago. Whaddya know. 5-6 weeks out it was hinted at.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

lol I definitely can. You act like that’s impossible to forecast. 

No, I don’t act like that at all, or think it’s impossible.  I just don’t like the certainty /and smugness on something that can’t even come close to being positive.
 

You’ve been in a down mood, so you’ve been saying shit off the cuff, that imo was not certain.  And I’m not saying the month isn’t gonna end way above …that’s not what I’m saying at all. Nor have I ever argued that.

what I said to you last week,  in the very beginning of this month, was that we don’t know what the end of the month would bring, because as you said everything showed warmth as far as the eye could see.  And now that doesn’t look so certain anymore. And That’s my point.  Things have changed some now, from what it looked like  last week. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why don’t people scream and yell at me for my thoughts later in December? Oh that’s right, because I said it could be favorable and this place is loaded with weenies. No howling and growling there lol.
 

You’ve been a complete whining weenie for the last two f’n weeks.  So you better not throw the weenie shit around. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You’ve been a complete whining weenie for the last two f’n weeks.  So you better not throw the weenie shit around. 

Yeah because it looks meh. It is what it is. I can lie if you want.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah because it looks meh. It is what it is. I can lie if you want.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say someone in CT will see their first flakes of the season by the end of the month, most likely mangled and 35⁰ at that, but hey it's something. Then, we torch....

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Fake is an overrated term…still can freeze pipes and feel cold as balls.

Blasting out the snow at those temps..dry too, so wet bulbs in the low teens up there?
 

No it’s almost 100% RH up there, very decoupled.

Currently looking at the snowmaking system from home shows wet bulbs of:

3,600ft… 19F

2,600ft… 22F

1,500ft… 23F 

All seem to have stabilized around those levels so that’s probably about what it can radiate too.  The crew has the fan guns back on in the base area which is good to see.  Wasn’t forecasting that, I went warmer tonight… I text them to say I was wrong lol, the inversion is up above summit level.  I’d assume that depth will shrink throughout the night though.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say someone in CT will see their first flakes of the season by the end of the month, most likely mangled and 35⁰ at that, but hey it's something. Then, we torch....

That’s certainly possible. Hell some areas in NE MA had snow in October amid the torch. You can have cool downs in a meh pattern. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah because it looks meh. It is what it is. I can lie if you want.

Geez, That’s not the point Scott.

The end of the month…It looks better than it did last week(that’s the point). If you can’t admit that, then that’s on you. 

And of course I don’t want you to lie. But I put very little emphasis into 4-6 week progs that look meh, or that look good for that matter either.  We’ve seen both looks reverse too many times.  
 

If you wanna be an angry elf about the look, I’m not gonna try to talk you out of it. But you know that looks that are that far out can and do morph. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just beer and wolves tonight. Wolves and beer

[bwt3650]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No it’s almost 100% RH up there, very decoupled.

Currently looking at the snowmaking system from home shows wet bulbs of:

3,600ft… 19F

2,600ft… 22F

1,500ft… 23F 

All seem to have stabilized around those levels so that’s probably about what it can radiate too.  The crew has the fan guns back on in the base area which is good to see.  Wasn’t forecasting that, I went warmer tonight… I text them to say I was wrong lol, the inversion is up above summit level.  I’d assume that depth will shrink throughout the night though.

I saw a Dew of 21 at 1800' with temp of 32 at the jay base a few hours ago and figured it was dry all the way up....100 percent wrong.  Good to hear...put something down at the base tonight that can last and hit a nice window Thanksgiving week and you guys will be good for opening.  I would never sleep if I could watch a snow making system at home.

[WinterWolf]

It’s all good…whatever.  We all want a decent winter.  Hopefully it plays out somewhat close. 

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Why don’t people scream and yell at me for my thoughts later in December? Oh that’s right, because I said it could be favorable and this place is loaded with weenies. No howling and growling there lol.
 

Your rise from the ashes of a former weenie when this winter over performs is going to be fun to watch.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Back to September Weather this weekend. 

it’s something i’m paying attention too, ‘correction behaviors’ going from ext into mid ranges. cold enthusiasts may want to pay attention too … as we age into winter.  this weekend’s script got flipped somewhere along the way … almost too subtle to have readily noticed.  3 or 4 days ago it was a cat paw windy showers around a retro low … now it’s 60s on Sunday with dslope dandies

are we doing this in winter - 

are we doing this later this month for that matter. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

You're rise from the ashes of a former weenie when this winter over performs is going to be fun to watch.

 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

You're rise from the ashes of a former weenie when this winter over performs is going to be fun to watch.

I just call it how it is. There’s nobody more than me who wants this to be a good winter.

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Geez, That’s not the point Scott.

The end of the month…It looks better than it did last week(that’s the point). If you can’t admit that, then that’s on you. 

And of course I don’t want you to lie. But I put very little emphasis into 4-6 week progs that look meh, or that look good for that matter either.  We’ve seen both looks reverse too many times.  
 

If you wanna be an angry elf about the look, I’m not gonna try to talk you out of it. But you know that looks that are that far out can and do morph. 

Yea it did cool off, but it’s not this massive pattern shift. I guess that’s why I’m like meh. Better than a torch, sure. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it’s something i’m paying attention too, ‘correction behaviors’ going from ext into mid ranges. cold enthusiasts may want to pay attention too … as we age into winter.  this weekend’s script got flipped somewhere along the way … almost too subtle to have readily noticed.  3 or 4 days ago it was a cat paw windy showers around a retro low … now it’s 60s on Sunday with dslope dandies

are we doing this in winter - 

are we doing this later this month for that matter. 

With wildfires catching and burning in the winds 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yea it did cool off, but it’s not this massive pattern shift. I guess that’s why I’m like meh. Better than a torch, sure. 

Fair enough. 

[Typhoon Tip]

that’s a wholesale reversal in the anomaly distribution over eastern n/a between now and d9 in all three main player ensemble means.

may and probably will prove transient but it is a coherent pattern change 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Both things are true though …

west -NAO/ emerging +PNA arrives 

while it modulates both less - + , and less cold over time  

[cleetussnow]

Cold shot coming up doesn’t make a winter and it will all be forgotten…

…unless thats the only cold we get until January and that is a distinct possibility.

[powderfreak]

23/18 outside up here at 9:30pm.

The bottom has fallen out quickly this evening across New England with the departing high.

25/19 down in TAN is pretty chilly for this time of evening.

[512high]

Down to 25

[dendrite]

lol this guy

 

[WxWatcher007]

We approve of these crisp days and cold nights. 

[alex]

18F here. You can hear the snowguns blasting lol. Should be good for that!

[Modfan2]

19F in NW CT, 28F here in Eastern CT and up now to 29F

[kdxken]

28° here warmer than the other night.