NW_of_GYX Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The brunt of the cold is all bottled up on the other side of the hemisphere. Need to get it to this side, otherwise who cares what the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, WPO are and what combos you have. Without the combos we are flooded with warmth and with the combos we're barely avg. been a persistent issue going back several years. Siberia gets all the cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 58 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: This goes far beyond a "drying out"....this is an all time historical drought for the fall across much of the northeast. Historical? That’s funny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Historical? That’s funny. ..it's been the driest fall on record at numerous locations....so that isn't historical?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Historical? That’s funny. He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November? I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. From a few days ago 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Fine by me. I was thinking the other night when I was standing outside at like 6:30 or 7:00...it only 6 months it will still be light out with temps in the 90's and dews in the 70's. Almost there well, i am certain you will verify on the daylight part and I am certain that you will bust on the temps and dews part. I mean, you are talking about mid-May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November? I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. From a few days ago I still remember early in Septorcher when I made the post about SNE burning and will be on fire as the fall went on. People snickered and weenied but this was sniffed out months ago, Tamarack had a few posts about some fires in Maine or NJ during a similar period in the 60’s/ 70’s. This is not going anywhere anytime soon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November? I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. From a few days ago ..it's not even possible to debate that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..it's been the driest fall on record at numerous locations....so that isn't historical?? Ok..maybe so. And if that’s the case, then we are due for some reversing for this winter. Let’s go. Reservoirs here aren’t an issue; I guess due to the over abundance of rain we had prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I still remember early in Septorcher when I made the post about SNE burning and will be on fire as the fall went on. People snickered and weenied but this was sniffed out months ago, Tamarack had a few posts about some fired in Maine or NJ during a similar period in the 60’s/ 70’s. This is not going anywhere anytime soon I’ll gamble we get quite a bit wetter as we go into the winter season. This won’t last a whole lot longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll gamble we get quite a bit wetter as we go into the winter season. This won’t last a whole lot longer. Plenty of juicy cutters. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: well, i am certain you will verify on the daylight part and I am certain that you will bust on the temps and dews part. I mean, you are talking about mid-May Ya, mid May sucks around here more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ok..maybe so. And if that’s the case, then we are due for some reversing for this winter. Let’s go. Reservoirs here aren’t an issue; I guess due to the over abundance of rain we had prior. maybe so???? lol....the "weather" doesn't realize it has to or needs to balance the books.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, CoastalWx said: Plenty of juicy cutters. Whatever…more wet is the theme bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: maybe so???? lol....the "weather" doesn't realize it has to or needs to balance the books.... But it does most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Plenty of juicy cutters. Not with that high anchored up there . Will turn into light shower fropas like Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, WinterWolf said: But it does most times. ..but no one can accurately predict when that may take place..if that is the case we are owed about 150 inches of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not with that high anchored up there . Will turn into light shower fropas like Sunday night How much longer you think this very dry pattern is gonna last? It’s gonna change at some point. And we might time it perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: ..but no one can accurately predict when that may take place..if that is the case we are owed about 150 inches of snow... Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, WinterWolf said: Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips. could flip to normal precip...could flip to slightly below normal precip...no one can say for certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Get a room already. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, tunafish said: Get a room already. Two posters who like to get the last word in, we’ll be here a while. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips. We've flipped a coin and hit tails 5+ consecutive times so we must be due for a stretch of heads soon.. sounds like a case of gambler's fallacy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How much longer you think this very dry pattern is gonna last? It’s gonna change at some point. And we might time it perfectly. I do think we’re gradually turning the corner, but who knows where that brings us. At least now we see chances of rain on the guidance lol. Would love to see the moisture from future Sara get entrained in the trough next week. We could use a good soaking. Longish shot of that happening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: We've flipped a coin and hit tails 5+ consecutive times so we must be due for a stretch of heads soon.. sounds like a case of gambler's fallacy I'm fine as long a player on the Jets isn't calling the coin toss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How much longer you think this very dry pattern is gonna last? It’s gonna change at some point. And we might time it perfectly. Right thru into the spring . That doesn’t mean little to no rain . Just that overall the qpf should be below to WBN each month 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right thru into the spring . That doesn’t mean little to no rain . Just that overall the qpf should be below to WBN each month Ok. Fair enough. I’m going with it’ll come back to normal precip as we head into and through the winter. That’s my call. We’ll see what happens. But imo, the longer we go without any meaningful precip, the more chance we snap it back at some point in the not to distant future(say the next month or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I still remember early in Septorcher when I made the post about SNE burning and will be on fire as the fall went on. People snickered and weenied but this was sniffed out months ago, Tamarack had a few posts about some fires in Maine or NJ during a similar period in the 60’s/ 70’s. This is not going anywhere anytime soon Maine, late October 1947. 200,000 acres and 15 fatalities New Jersey, late October into November 1963. The 4" splash on 11/6-8 knocked things back a lot, and the month had another 4 before the 30th. (The really big fire than year came on April 20, a windy Saturday - nearly 200,000 acres in the Pine Barrens, and ~17 homes burned in NYC [Staten Island] by a forest fire.) For folks like 'Fella and me, this is a significant but short-term drought. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 20 minutes ago, tamarack said: Maine, late October 1947. 200,000 acres and 15 fatalities New Jersey, late October into November 1963. The 4" splash on 11/6-8 knocked things back a lot, and the month had another 4 before the 30th. (The really big fire than year came on April 20, a windy Saturday - nearly 200,000 acres in the Pine Barrens, and ~17 homes burned in NYC [Staten Island] by a forest fire.) For folks like 'Fella and me, this is a significant but short-term drought. Thank you for the perspective. Everyone is so dramatic now. Nothings ever happened like this before is such BS dramatic crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Gatlinburg got charred to smithereens a few years back in late NOV. No reason it couldn't happen here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Looks like a cold finish to the month. Luck had to run out sometime. Maybe Wolfie was right? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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