Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[NW_of_GYX]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The brunt of the cold is all bottled up on the other side of the hemisphere. Need to get it to this side, otherwise who cares what the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, WPO are and what combos you have. Without the combos we are flooded with warmth and with the combos we're barely avg. 

been a persistent issue going back several years. Siberia gets all the cold 

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

This goes far beyond a "drying out"....this is an all time  historical drought for the fall across much of the northeast. 

Historical?  That’s funny.  

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Historical?  That’s funny.  

..it's been the driest fall on record at numerous locations....so that isn't historical??

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Historical?  That’s funny. 

He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November?

I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. 
 

From a few days ago 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Fine by me. I was thinking the other night when I was standing outside at like 6:30 or 7:00...it only 6 months it will still be light out with temps in the 90's and dews in the 70's. Almost there

well, i am certain you will verify on the daylight part

and I am certain that you will bust on the temps and dews part. I mean, you are talking about mid-May

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November?

I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. 
 

From a few days ago 

I still remember early in Septorcher when I made the post about SNE burning and will be on fire as the fall went on. People snickered and weenied but this was sniffed out months ago, Tamarack had a few posts about some fires  in Maine or NJ during a similar period in the 60’s/ 70’s. This is not going anywhere anytime soon 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

He’s not wrong—this has been an all timer of a fall dry period. How many years do you remember dozens of fires going up in November?

I have .90” of rain since August 20. It’s incredible. 
 

From a few days ago 

..it's not even possible to debate that...

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..it's been the driest fall on record at numerous locations....so that isn't historical??

Ok..maybe so.  And if that’s the case, then we are due for some reversing for this winter. Let’s go. 
 

Reservoirs here aren’t an issue; I guess due to the over abundance of rain we had prior. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I still remember early in Septorcher when I made the post about SNE burning and will be on fire as the fall went on. People snickered and weenied but this was sniffed out months ago, Tamarack had a few posts about some fired in Maine or NJ during a similar period in the 60’s/ 70’s. This is not going anywhere anytime soon 

I’ll gamble we get quite a bit wetter as we go into the winter season. This won’t last a whole lot longer. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll gamble we get quite a bit wetter as we go into the winter season. This won’t last a whole lot longer. 

Plenty of juicy cutters.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

well, i am certain you will verify on the daylight part

and I am certain that you will bust on the temps and dews part. I mean, you are talking about mid-May

Ya, mid May sucks around here more often than not. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok..maybe so.  And if that’s the case, then we are due for some reversing for this winter. Let’s go. 
 

Reservoirs here aren’t an issue; I guess due to the over abundance of rain we had prior. 

maybe so???? lol....the "weather" doesn't realize it has to or needs  to balance the books....

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Plenty of juicy cutters.

Whatever…more wet is the theme bro.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

maybe so???? lol....the "weather" doesn't realize it has to or needs  to balance the books....

But it does most times. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Plenty of juicy cutters.

Not with that high anchored up there . Will turn into light shower fropas like Sunday night 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

But it does most times. 

..but no one can accurately predict when that may take place..if that is the case we are owed about 150 inches of snow...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not with that high anchored up there . Will turn into light shower fropas like Sunday night 

How much longer you think this very dry pattern is gonna last?  It’s gonna change at some point. And we might time it perfectly. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

..but no one can accurately predict when that may take place..if that is the case we are owed about 150 inches of snow...

Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips.  

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips.  

could flip to normal precip...could flip to slightly below normal precip...no one can say for certain

[tunafish]

Get a room already.

[powderfreak]

Just now, tunafish said:

Get a room already.

Two posters who like to get the last word in, we’ll be here a while.

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips.  

We've flipped a coin and hit tails 5+ consecutive times so we must be due for a stretch of heads soon.. sounds like a case of gambler's fallacy 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How much longer you think this very dry pattern is gonna last?  It’s gonna change at some point. And we might time it perfectly. 

I do think we’re gradually turning the corner, but who knows where that brings us. At least now we see chances of rain on the guidance lol. 

Would love to see the moisture from future Sara get entrained in the trough next week. We could use a good soaking. Longish shot of that happening though. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

We've flipped a coin and hit tails 5+ consecutive times so we must be due for a stretch of heads soon.. sounds like a case of gambler's fallacy 

I'm  fine as long a player on the Jets isn't calling the coin toss...

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How much longer you think this very dry pattern is gonna last?  It’s gonna change at some point. And we might time it perfectly. 

Right thru into the spring . That doesn’t mean little to no rain . Just that overall the qpf should be below to WBN each month 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Right thru into the spring . That doesn’t mean little to no rain . Just that overall the qpf should be below to WBN each month 

Ok. Fair enough.   I’m going with it’ll come back to normal precip as we head into and through the winter. That’s my call.  We’ll see what happens.
 

 But imo, the longer we go without any meaningful precip, the more chance we snap it back at some point in the not to distant future(say the next month or so). 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I still remember early in Septorcher when I made the post about SNE burning and will be on fire as the fall went on. People snickered and weenied but this was sniffed out months ago, Tamarack had a few posts about some fires  in Maine or NJ during a similar period in the 60’s/ 70’s. This is not going anywhere anytime soon 

Maine, late October 1947. 200,000 acres and 15 fatalities
New Jersey, late October into November 1963.  The 4" splash on 11/6-8 knocked things back a lot, and the month had another 4 before the 30th. 
(The really big fire than year came on April 20, a windy Saturday - nearly 200,000 acres in the Pine Barrens, and ~17 homes burned in NYC [Staten Island] by a forest fire.)

For folks like 'Fella and me, this is a significant but short-term drought.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maine, late October 1947. 200,000 acres and 15 fatalities
New Jersey, late October into November 1963.  The 4" splash on 11/6-8 knocked things back a lot, and the month had another 4 before the 30th. 
(The really big fire than year came on April 20, a windy Saturday - nearly 200,000 acres in the Pine Barrens, and ~17 homes burned in NYC [Staten Island] by a forest fire.)

For folks like 'Fella and me, this is a significant but short-term drought.

Thank you for the perspective.  Everyone is so dramatic now.  Nothings ever happened like this before is such BS dramatic crap. 

[NoCORH4L]

Gatlinburg got charred to smithereens a few years back in late NOV. No reason it couldn't happen here.

[kdxken]

Looks like a cold finish to the month. Luck had to run out sometime. Maybe Wolfie was right?