Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 

You can watch it go out to sea.

If this does go into Florida (which I think is a pretty good shot, its just a matter of whether its southern Florida or farther north along the coast) this will almost certainly become absorbed by the approaching trough and quickly get shunted east. Not a pattern where a system is captured and slung northwards up the coast. 

[weatherwiz]

Thinking about winter storm potential. when you're trough is already starting to dig here and your system is still way down there...not happening

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I feel like I am reading thru the Nov thread from last year right now. 

Lol... Well you're not because we're in 2024. Different year, different time, and it's not going to be identical to last year.

Can't wait till we have our first snow event, you'll be the first one on that wagon calling for 4"-8". 

[Allsnow]

It’s amazing how many gulf systems failed to produce rain up here this year 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing how many gulf systems failed to produce rain up here this year 

Right, I've been thinking about that. That is some pretty brutal luck. 

I often wonder, if we did not have that massive HP over us when Helene was moving inland, if we would have had some big impact here (assuming Helene would have taken a more eastward track up the coast versus going up the Tennessee Valley). 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

And then get pulled back 

Pullin’ a few of deez back?

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Right, I've been thinking about that. That is some pretty brutal luck. 

I often wonder, if we did not have that massive HP over us when Helene was moving inland, if we would have had some big impact here (assuming Helene would have taken a more eastward track up the coast versus going up the Tennessee Valley). 

Crazy. The eps overnight didn’t have a rain chance for the northeast until 11/22 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy. The eps overnight didn’t have a rain chance for the northeast until 11/22 

It's really wild. I was looking at H5 evolution on the 6z GFS and thought maybe we could see a decent chance for some rain with that cold front around that time frame but looked at the sfc and nope. It's a vigorous trough that digs, unfortunately it becomes a massive, occluded piece of junk which results in the whole system weakening as it moves into the Northeast. 

Really the whole pattern moving forward seems to favor closed off systems within the mid-west which occlude as they move across the Ohio Valley leaving us with nada. 

We need a drastic PAC shakeup and probably need a massive shakeup over Europe/Asia (moreso Asia) to get things jumpstarted. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's really wild. I was looking at H5 evolution on the 6z GFS and thought maybe we could see a decent chance for some rain with that cold front around that time frame but looked at the sfc and nope. It's a vigorous trough that digs, unfortunately it becomes a massive, occluded piece of junk which results in the whole system weakening as it moves into the Northeast. 

Really the whole pattern moving forward seems to favor closed off systems within the mid-west which occlude as they move across the Ohio Valley leaving us with nada. 

We need a drastic PAC shakeup and probably need a massive shakeup over Europe/Asia (moreso Asia) to get things jumpstarted. 

Yup. The ULL gets trapped underneath the block which will probably get the lake effect machine going the week of thanksgiving. But I don’t see many precipitation chances that week here with everything getting shredded by the ULL. Perhaps something when that moves out later towards months end 

[weatherwiz]

The best thing to probably do is compliment the assessment of D7-10 ensembles and then start assessing how guidance is verifying with the pattern across Asia through the central PAC. If these D7-10 day "pattern changes" have merit, we'll start seeing that in the D3-4 time frame within that region. But then again, when it comes to pattern changes, I guess it depends on what metric someone is using to quantify a pattern change. I mean if we have a pattern with a trough in the west and ridge in the East with a dry east and go to a ridge in the west and trough in the east but still come out dry...that pattern did technically change. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Wow, can't buy moisture for SNE. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Bottomed out at 26F

About the same at our frost pocket - must not have fully decoupled.  Low teens tonight?

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

About the same at our frost pocket - must not have fully decoupled.  Low teens tonight?

We hit 22F, had a brief period of decoupling around 2am.  Temp came up after that.

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m already over sweating details this season. Whatever happens, happens. Can’t get any worse (technically it could). 

Yeah, let's not go for the worse part...I don't have time to sweat any details at this point. So let's just get some snow and a nice Spring starting in March.

[weatherwiz]

FWIW, 12z MET came down to Earth for BOS tomorrow night...has a low into the lower 30's. 

OTOH, it's going wild at some other places  

[dendrite]

Thankfully we’re getting the coldest of the winter out of the way now. 

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thankfully we’re getting the coldest of the winter out of the way now. 

Fine by me. I was thinking the other night when I was standing outside at like 6:30 or 7:00...it only 6 months it will still be light out with temps in the 90's and dews in the 70's. Almost there

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, can't buy moisture for SNE. 

1.74” since Aug 20th here. I think this dry pattern goes right thru the winter. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

1.74” since Aug 20th here. I think this dry pattern goes right thru the winter. 

Yeah, every time there’s rain beyond day five on the models it just disappears a day or two later.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1.74” since Aug 20th here. I think this dry pattern goes right thru the winter. 

It might. But it will definitely get more wet than it’s been. We were bound for a dry stretch…I mean we were killing it in the rain/moisture department for a year plus.  It was pretty easy to see the drying out coming.  

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Fine by me. I was thinking the other night when I was standing outside at like 6:30 or 7:00...it only 6 months it will still be light out with temps in the 90's and dews in the 70's. Almost there

You got six more weeks of losing daylight to go wiz…enjoy the increasing darkness. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It might. But it will definitely get more wet than it’s been. We were bound for a dry stretch…I mean we were killing it in the rain/moisture department for a year plus.  It was pretty easy to see the drying out coming.  

We don’t know that. It might not . Only DJT knows for sure. 
https://x.com/eweather13/status/1856522435870298390?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[weatherwiz]

hmmm maybe Florida gets saved. If center develops where that convection is exploding, this may get disrupted by the Yucatan 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You got six more weeks of losing daylight to go wiz…enjoy the increasing darkness. 

Never!

But 6 more weeks doesn't sounds too bad when you think of it lol. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing how many gulf systems failed to produce rain up here this year 

Feels much like hitters did when they had to face Pedro Martinez when he was in his prime....no bueno...

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It might. But it will definitely get more wet than it’s been. We were bound for a dry stretch…I mean we were killing it in the rain/moisture department for a year plus.  It was pretty easy to see the drying out coming.  

This goes far beyond a "drying out"....this is an all time  historical drought for the fall across much of the northeast. 

[weatherwiz]

wow...was looking at the 12z GFS and thought to myself, "oh wow that's a decent cold shot in about 7-10 days" looking at 850/925...was curious as to what the sfc looked like...no cold  just somewhat avg times with the most below avg temps across the OV into the SE.

[weatherwiz]

The brunt of the cold is all bottled up on the other side of the hemisphere. Need to get it to this side, otherwise who cares what the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, WPO are and what combos you have. Without the combos we are flooded with warmth and with the combos we're barely avg. 

[alex]

At least it’s cold enough to make snow at noon

[weathafella]

BOS hit freezing early this morning.  That tends to occur within a week of 11/10 each year and 2024 is no exception.