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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Serious? 

That's ridiculous. No need for models to go out that far, what a waste of money and resources. Put the resources to better use. If you're going to run models that far out, then only do like 500mb level. But that aspect wouldn't matter...the vendor sites will continue with their snowfall maps, supercell composite parameters maps, and significant tornado maps. I've even seen this product floating around called accumulated supercell composite parameter...THERE IS NO NEED FOR SUCH A PRODUCT. USE THE RESOURCES ON SOMETHING ELSE.

this may sound like ego but it's not intended to push that shit.     i disagree with there being no utility in long lead prognostic model depictions. 

particularly over time, if the user is aware of 'trends,'  ...and for lack of better word, the tempo of recent nuances, they can 'see' the emergence of aspects that may not even be physically presented on any guidance at the time of the run/distance of the vision.  

this has some utility/usefulness when combined with the teleconnector prognositcs, the combination determines where the likeliness' are for corrections.  

some of us have started threads for activity anticipated some 2 weeks in advance in the past, and showed some decent skill.  the secret is to keep the rhetoric leaning in trends, and don't attempt to be discrete. 

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54 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I mean that 12z GFS upper level setup is definitely more interesting than we normally see during hurricane season. still low chance, but you have the deep trough at least

Euro almost pulled what was left of future Sara up with cold air around 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Serious? 

That's ridiculous. No need for models to go out that far, what a waste of money and resources. Put the resources to better use. If you're going to run models that far out, then only do like 500mb level. But that aspect wouldn't matter...the vendor sites will continue with their snowfall maps, supercell composite parameters maps, and significant tornado maps. I've even seen this product floating around called accumulated supercell composite parameter...THERE IS NO NEED FOR SUCH A PRODUCT. USE THE RESOURCES ON SOMETHING ELSE.

  • Extension of the HRES and WAVE forecasts to 15 days (00/12 UTC runs) and 6 days (06/18 UTC runs)
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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this may sound like ego but it's not intended to push that shit.     i disagree with there being no utility in long lead prognostic model depictions. 

particularly over time, if the user is aware of 'trends,'  ...and for lack of better word, the tempo of recent nuances, they can 'see' the emergence of aspects that may not even be physically presented on any guidance at the time of the run/distance of the vision.  

this has some utility/usefulness when combined with the teleconnector prognositcs, the combination determines where the likeliness' are for corrections.  

some of us have started threads for activity anticipated some 2 weeks in advance in the past, and showed some decent skill.  the secret is to keep the rhetoric leaning in trends, and don't attempt to be discrete. 

While I agree in general, we all know the reality of this social media driven hype machine.  If only, folks would concentrate on trends, particularly the upper levels.  But the desire for click bait folks to post surface progs, and/or precip totals at long leads has polluted so many of the discussions.  I would be perfectly happy if the available models after day-10 showed only the 500 mb level.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this may sound like ego but it's not intended to push that shit.     i disagree with there being no utility in long lead prognostic model depictions. 

particularly over time, if the user is aware of 'trends,'  ...and for lack of better word, the tempo of recent nuances, they can 'see' the emergence of aspects that may not even be physically presented on any guidance at the time of the run/distance of the vision.  

this has some utility/usefulness when combined with the teleconnector prognositcs, the combination determines where the likeliness' are for corrections.  

some of us have started threads for activity anticipated some 2 weeks in advance in the past, and showed some decent skill.  the secret is to keep the rhetoric leaning in trends, and don't attempt to be discrete. 

I don't disagree with your statement here, however, unfortunately most don't view it in this sense. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hr 360 on the op is like being at the bar 8 DIPAs deep and thinking you have Carmen Electra and then day 3 on the op makes you sober up and realize you took home Rosie O-Donnell.

Around the 21st there is a massive flip of Telecommunications with a sharply drop in epo nao and a positive flip in PNA. It us transient and how it sets up will determine congrats Milwaukie or near us. Just something more interesting than dry lawns and bad beer.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Around the 21st there is a massive flip of Telecommunications with a sharply drop in epo nao and a positive flip in PNA. It us transient and how it sets up will determine congrats Milwaukie or near us. Just something more interesting than dry lawns and bad beer.

Agree on more storminess anyways. I mean it can't any less interesting.

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hr 360 on the op is like being at the bar 8 DIPAs deep and thinking you have Carmen Electra and then day 3 on the op makes you sober up and realize you took home Rosie O-Donnell.

And week 4 of the weeklies is just as bad unfortunately.  

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And week 4 of the weeklies is just as bad unfortunately.  

That's a weekly summary vs a daily op run. Week 4 doesn't have a ton of skill, but there are other tools to gauge sub seasonal forecasts and not just weeklies.

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