CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: Going away? There won’t be a Euro OP anymore? Maybe that’s a good thing. I'm out of the loop with this stuff, but I heard there were some changes coming from how it exists now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm out of the loop with this stuff, but I heard there were some changes coming from how it exists now. Oh ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:56 PM nice cold shot day 10 on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Tuesday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:56 PM 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Serious? That's ridiculous. No need for models to go out that far, what a waste of money and resources. Put the resources to better use. If you're going to run models that far out, then only do like 500mb level. But that aspect wouldn't matter...the vendor sites will continue with their snowfall maps, supercell composite parameters maps, and significant tornado maps. I've even seen this product floating around called accumulated supercell composite parameter...THERE IS NO NEED FOR SUCH A PRODUCT. USE THE RESOURCES ON SOMETHING ELSE. this may sound like ego but it's not intended to push that shit. i disagree with there being no utility in long lead prognostic model depictions. particularly over time, if the user is aware of 'trends,' ...and for lack of better word, the tempo of recent nuances, they can 'see' the emergence of aspects that may not even be physically presented on any guidance at the time of the run/distance of the vision. this has some utility/usefulness when combined with the teleconnector prognositcs, the combination determines where the likeliness' are for corrections. some of us have started threads for activity anticipated some 2 weeks in advance in the past, and showed some decent skill. the secret is to keep the rhetoric leaning in trends, and don't attempt to be discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:02 PM 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Was just skimming over this. Looks to be for the ensembles, but the euro op as we know it is also going away IIRC. Euro op still running actually out to hr270.. not sure what it goes out to now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM 54 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I mean that 12z GFS upper level setup is definitely more interesting than we normally see during hurricane season. still low chance, but you have the deep trough at least Euro almost pulled what was left of future Sara up with cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:06 PM 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Serious? That's ridiculous. No need for models to go out that far, what a waste of money and resources. Put the resources to better use. If you're going to run models that far out, then only do like 500mb level. But that aspect wouldn't matter...the vendor sites will continue with their snowfall maps, supercell composite parameters maps, and significant tornado maps. I've even seen this product floating around called accumulated supercell composite parameter...THERE IS NO NEED FOR SUCH A PRODUCT. USE THE RESOURCES ON SOMETHING ELSE. Extension of the HRES and WAVE forecasts to 15 days (00/12 UTC runs) and 6 days (06/18 UTC runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM seems like a huge pattern change on the Euro.. Hopefully they didn't screw it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: this may sound like ego but it's not intended to push that shit. i disagree with there being no utility in long lead prognostic model depictions. particularly over time, if the user is aware of 'trends,' ...and for lack of better word, the tempo of recent nuances, they can 'see' the emergence of aspects that may not even be physically presented on any guidance at the time of the run/distance of the vision. this has some utility/usefulness when combined with the teleconnector prognositcs, the combination determines where the likeliness' are for corrections. some of us have started threads for activity anticipated some 2 weeks in advance in the past, and showed some decent skill. the secret is to keep the rhetoric leaning in trends, and don't attempt to be discrete. While I agree in general, we all know the reality of this social media driven hype machine. If only, folks would concentrate on trends, particularly the upper levels. But the desire for click bait folks to post surface progs, and/or precip totals at long leads has polluted so many of the discussions. I would be perfectly happy if the available models after day-10 showed only the 500 mb level. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM 35 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: seems like a huge pattern change on the Euro.. Hopefully they didn't screw it up It would be hard to screw it up any more than it already is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM 36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: seems like a huge pattern change on the Euro.. Hopefully they didn't screw it up Can’t be though…we were told November is toast, and even into the first half of December is probably gone too. So that’s gotta be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:50 PM November probably is toast. Maybe you get a 2-3 day cool spell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:52 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: November probably is toast. Maybe you get a 2-3 day cool spell. Hopefully that’s all it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hopefully that’s all it is. December says MJOh-no. Hopefully not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Tuesday at 07:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:08 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: December says MJOh-no. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: December says MJOh-no. Hopefully not. Onto January… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: November probably is toast. Maybe you get a 2-3 day cool spell. 12z Euro looked good.. out to hr 360.. who knows though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Onto January… Maybe Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:39 PM 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro looked good.. out to hr 360.. who knows though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: this may sound like ego but it's not intended to push that shit. i disagree with there being no utility in long lead prognostic model depictions. particularly over time, if the user is aware of 'trends,' ...and for lack of better word, the tempo of recent nuances, they can 'see' the emergence of aspects that may not even be physically presented on any guidance at the time of the run/distance of the vision. this has some utility/usefulness when combined with the teleconnector prognositcs, the combination determines where the likeliness' are for corrections. some of us have started threads for activity anticipated some 2 weeks in advance in the past, and showed some decent skill. the secret is to keep the rhetoric leaning in trends, and don't attempt to be discrete. I don't disagree with your statement here, however, unfortunately most don't view it in this sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:44 PM Hr 360 on the op is like being at the bar 8 DIPAs deep and thinking you have Carmen Electra and then day 3 on the op makes you sober up and realize you took home Rosie O-Donnell. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hr 360 on the op is like being at the bar 8 DIPAs deep and thinking you have Carmen Electra and then day 3 on the op makes you sober up and realize you took home Rosie O-Donnell. Around the 21st there is a massive flip of Telecommunications with a sharply drop in epo nao and a positive flip in PNA. It us transient and how it sets up will determine congrats Milwaukie or near us. Just something more interesting than dry lawns and bad beer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Around the 21st there is a massive flip of Telecommunications with a sharply drop in epo nao and a positive flip in PNA. It us transient and how it sets up will determine congrats Milwaukie or near us. Just something more interesting than dry lawns and bad beer. Agree on more storminess anyways. I mean it can't any less interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM There is some ridging out west so as I mentioned earlier..maybe a shot at an interior and/or NNE synoptic winter event? That might be a window late month and very early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Was just skimming over this. Looks to be for the ensembles, but the euro op as we know it is also going away IIRC. Not for nuthin, but Friday's little Fuji-whiff event was nailed by the Euro AI well before the others caught on. I wonder when we will see a GFS AI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM 44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Maybe Feb. after March 10th we may have a shot of something in seriousness if a big cutter type system does end up developing, i imagine many of us in SNE will see first flakes from some cold pool snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: And making it feel downright cold too…makes the 49 degree temp feel much colder. It's 44 here now, with a wind chill of about 36 F. Going to have several chilly nights in central MA, getting down into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:18 PM 15 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Not for nuthin, but Friday's little Fuji-whiff event was nailed by the Euro AI well before the others caught on. I wonder when we will see a GFS AI? Seems drier now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hr 360 on the op is like being at the bar 8 DIPAs deep and thinking you have Carmen Electra and then day 3 on the op makes you sober up and realize you took home Rosie O-Donnell. And week 4 of the weeklies is just as bad unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:29 PM 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And week 4 of the weeklies is just as bad unfortunately. That's a weekly summary vs a daily op run. Week 4 doesn't have a ton of skill, but there are other tools to gauge sub seasonal forecasts and not just weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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