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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s been a long year for me, I’d like nothing more than a nice winter distraction, but it’s also been nice not to concern myself with weather so much as I used too

We’ll need it soon though because 40 and rain for 6 months will drive everyone off the Tobin. 
 

But Wolfie said but winter coming so we are all good!

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ll need it soon though because 40 and rain for 6 months will drive everyone off the Tobin. 
 

But Wolfie said but winter coming so we are all good!

I didn’t say that..I said it’s gonna snap at some point. And it F’n will. But You are insufferable pal. You’re the one that’s cancelling months at a time. It’s getting old now. Take a dam break.  

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I didn’t say that..I said it’s gonna snap at some point. And it F’n will. But You are insufferable pal. You’re the one that’s cancelling months at a time. It’s getting old now. Take a dam break.  

lol that was clearly a joke. Ooooooowwwoooooooooooooooo!!!

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unlikely.  pinch off book end lows are rare, rarer still ... any model getting them right.  and, at this range, most likely has never happened in guidance.

the period in question does interestingly feature a -AO/-NAO index modal/couplet, taking place over a persistent -pna.  so there's a signal for blocking that is embedded in the background hemisphere above mid latitudes.  as is usually case ... the operational models aren't sure exactly where ... bursting positive height (anom) nodes within that general region from eastern archipelago of ne canada east toward iceland  

the problem is that the actual/realized blocking if/when it materializes, may favor the western or eastern limb of the general region - which either has a quantifiable difference on how it correlates to weather types here in eastern mid latitude n/a     

the epo is positive throughout - unless that has recently changed...  if the epo were to slip negative while the nao is a east based, and the rna remains negative then we warm up again.  if the epo is positive and the -nao builds west toward baffin island ( ~), the rising pna toward week two correlates to a cool down chi town to boston - at this time of year, that's a le initiator and then watching ec ( not a book end/pinch off bullshitness) do to the index change/ h.a. thing.  

the nao could go ahead a verify negative, woo hoo for the models, but still be a problem for winter weather enthusiasts, or ... be everything.   

 

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So a few things. As far as the colder mornings go, I have a feeling that even Kev will get down below freezing for Wednesday morning. Looks like the entire state's going to be cold. 

The other thing to mention as I watching Bob maxon this morning. He was talking about the pattern and how it's going to be changing in the next few weeks ( which was refreshing ). He also mentioned that there's been some good signs that the pattern's going to change going into the week of Thanksgiving ( he also mentioned that he feels a 70° temperatures are done).

Looking forward to it!

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