Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Typhoon Tip]

the pattern the operational runs are selling lately is attempting to abase the recent persistence of western trough ... leading to episodic eastern ridges - causing these warm burst behaviors.

that may or may not happen.  but suppose it does, it's not exactly headlong into winter that they are offering instead. more like a seasonal oscillatory thing.  

if i could have my druthers, it would be like yesterday ... every day, until such time that reality commits to winter.  if this latter circumstance is not going to happen, the next best thing is 'operation no winter shock and awe' - i can think of a lot of societal positives that could manifest for being shocked and/or awed that way ... but that's another discussion.

anyway, i think what's slated to take place over the next 3 weeks is that since the -rna thing/rossby base is really unchanging, and this oscillatory aspect is all apparently being forced by an excursion of -ao/-nao,  as soon as these latter alleviate ( or even prove overbearing in the models all along -) the previous dynamic resumes and we return to another period where it could warm burst again. and this paragraph is not based on my druthers.  like is said, the -pna and the general +wpo/+epo over-arcing, don't really lend to otherwise. if these show signs of legit change, we'll talk

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's gonna rain this weekend 

Is it?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Are your girls still in soccer in high school? Big state quarterfinal game tonight Seymour vs Tolland at Mount Seymour. 

Both are at UConn. Junior and freshman. My youngest was captain last year . This year’s team was not supposed to be that good but they’ve had a good tournament though they’ve had a fairly easy path so far. Their strength is their defense . I don’t know how Seymour team is , but if they’re very good Tolland may have hands full.

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it?

12z ICON would put the stein talk to rest

[ineedsnow]

[ma blizzard]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

would be nice to break up the monotony 

[FXWX]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Both are at UConn. Junior and freshman. My youngest was captain last year . This year’s team was not supposed to be that good but they’ve had a good tournament though they’ve had a fairly easy both so far. Their strength is their defense . I don’t know how Seymour team is , but if they’re very good Tolland may have hands full.

I thought Seymour lost to Stonington, Tuesday?  The vast majority of times it comes down to defense!

[FXWX]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Both are at UConn. Junior and freshman. My youngest was captain last year . This year’s team was not supposed to be that good but they’ve had a good tournament though they’ve had a fairly easy path so far. Their strength is their defense . I don’t know how Seymour team is , but if they’re very good Tolland may have hands full.

Earlier post by me was inaccurate... I was looking at the boy's bracket, not the girls...  Stonington boys beat Seymour...

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS is better 

[ineedsnow]

The storm after that is even better... sucks its day 12 on the 12z GFS but   

[ineedsnow]

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Imagine saying Worcester area when reporting Auburn Mass temp. 

BDL is official since the airport took over. The threaded historical obs include the old siting. That’s why all of the official climo stations have “area” since there are slight changes to the siting. BDL isn’t much different from HFD minus a little latitude. 

[MJO812]

Gfs shows winter coming for many in the northeast by end of November

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs shows winter coming for many in the northeast by end of November

Beast of a storm on the 12z CMC also but more of a  rain /mix ..  looks like late next week there will be some kind of storm around though

[ineedsnow]

12z CMC 1 to 2ft for the Berkshires 3 to 6 here and rain for the coast and valleys I would take it 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

first real eye-candy run of the year... 

i'm impressed it took this long.  usually we see the gfs float an idea like that by septermber 24th or something much earlier.  lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z CMC 1 to 2ft for the Berkshires 3 to 6 here and rain for the coast and valleys I would take it 

I love shoveling CMC fantasy snow. It’s so effortless. 

[512high]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

first real eye-candy run of the year... 

i'm impressed it took this long.  usually we see the gfs float an idea like that by septermber 24th or something much earlier like that.  lol

Lol Tip, "Better late than never"

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

first real eye-candy run of the year... 

i'm impressed it took this long.  usually we see the gfs float an idea like that by septermber 24th or something much earlier.  lol

I have been noticing blocking starting to show up in the 10-15 day on both the GEFS and EPS. I would assume the 12z GFS run took that look into account this run, I will assume the 18z will replace the 12z trough with a ridge around here. But at least it is nice to look at, there is cold somewhere in North America to snow....I guess that is the first step at this point

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I have been noticing blocking starting to show up in the 10-15 day on both the GEFS and EPS. I would assume the 12z GFS run took that look into account this run, I will assume the 18z will replace the 12z trough with a ridge around here. But at least it is nice to look at, there is cold somewhere in North America to snow....I guess that is the first step at this point

yeah, i was bringing that up yesterday and this morning, the downward correcting ao/nao  ...

the problem is, the index actual numerical values don't really sub beneath 0.0.   they are just correcting down.  as they near neutral (0.0) they stall, with their ensemble spreads mop ending open with their means... well, anyway, the operational gfs ( and ggem for that matter) look like they're on the way more amplified side of a poor predictive skill period of time.  doesn't lend a lot of confidence.    outliers. 

i hate these -rna/-nao 'hopefuls'   ... they're unmanned firehose patterns, where the flop end of the hose is where in the hell does the nao blocking evolve, how much therein (if even so...)  then, will there really be a pacific inject of wave mechanics to break in the right spot.  blah blah-blah

[ineedsnow]

November to remember?

[Go Kart Mozart]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

November to remember?

Nice shadow in NE NY, lol.

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro keeps stein going

[weatherwiz]

Certainly seems like the northern hemisphere is about to undergo a major shakeup, what that means for an outcome, who knows. But looks like the hemisphere is ready to actually transition to cool season wavelengths with more wave breaking. 

[ineedsnow]

12z EPS through hr216 average is about 1 inch of qpf so not agreeing with the op

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro keeps stein going

Toss it far and wide.

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro keeps stein going

And thst is exactly how it will go. The trough will stay in the west . Don’t fall for wild op runs 

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And thst is exactly how it will go. The trough will stay in the west . Don’t fall for wild op runs 

EPS is wetter and puts a dent in stein

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Toss it far and wide.

yeah it's ( probably unfortunate to this discussion spirit ) the more likely scenario given the antecedent persistent hemisphere...

the other idea isn't completely dead - but the nao has to be modeled correctly.  from this range?  tall order.  

[ineedsnow]

Just saw this on facebook.. guess it's on the masspike before the 291 exit for   Springfield