Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Go Kart Mozart]

We need BrooklynWX to come in here with some colorful and optimistic maps.

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

That would be a fun storm next weekend on the 18z GFS. If it was further west...

Not too far West just a little.

 

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Things like wells going dry. Has that been happening?

Yeah… claiming you are affected by drought because your lawn (that’s not actually used for anything) isn’t neon green… yawn.

Let us know when you go to turn your faucet on and nothing happens.  That’s when you have an actual problem.

Brush fire burning down a barn?  That qualifies too.

[Boston Bulldog]

A bit of a trend emerging over the last day for mid-month on the GEFS. The EPS has shown this trough anomaly on the eastern half of the country for a little while as well.

Refreshing to see long range changes, if still very far out. This potential break in the ridge will likely transient in nature as this feature propogates quickly across the CONUS.

[Typhoon Tip]

unlikely 

[Boston Bulldog]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

unlikely 

I am interested to know why this may be a mirage, tropical forcings perhaps?

At first glance the high-latitude dynamics seem like they would be sufficient to temporarily tighten up the lambda on the continental rossby waveguide 

[TheClimateChanger]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

81 at hfd and bos destroys the previous record for nov 6 set just as recently as 2022, by 5+ degrees f ! 

orh previous was 72, set 2022, now it is 79 at 1000k elevation. 

dps at hfd and bos are 55+ ...so this air mass is not just a kinetic fluke. it's 'thermodynamically historic' - if that's a metric

i'm just stunned by this one -

Surprised it wasn’t even higher. It was 85F at Dunkirk, New York yesterday. That’s hot for there for anytime of the year. Nearby Buffalo has seen 4 years where the temperature didn’t even reach 85F, and 5 others where the maximum reading was 85F. Thought that superheated airmass descending over the mountains might be able to reach 90F.

[powderfreak]

These November moths flying around, trying to get inside… 

Two long stretches above 60 degrees up here in northern VT.  Granted it’s only 750ft, but still statistically incredible. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM EST Wednesday... A cold front is gradually
progressing southward across the region tonight. While there is
a noticeable wind shift behind it, there is not a sharp
temperature gradient so temperatures are only falling slowly
behind it. There were previously a few showers along this front
but these have dissipated, so now it is passing through dry.
Model guidance is suggesting a few showers could redevelop along
it later tonight but any rain would be light and brief. It is
not even cold enough for the highest peaks to see any chance of
snow showers.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Still 62° here under partly cloudy skies which is kind of insane for November 6th. 

[Snowedin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

These November moths flying around, trying to get inside… 

Two long stretches above 60 degrees up here in northern VT.  Granted it’s only 750ft, but still statistically incredible. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM EST Wednesday... A cold front is gradually
progressing southward across the region tonight. While there is
a noticeable wind shift behind it, there is not a sharp
temperature gradient so temperatures are only falling slowly
behind it. There were previously a few showers along this front
but these have dissipated, so now it is passing through dry.
Model guidance is suggesting a few showers could redevelop along
it later tonight but any rain would be light and brief. It is
not even cold enough for the highest peaks to see any chance of
snow showers.

 

Funny you mention that. I happened to stumble across a skinny snake as I was trekking the woods earlier and that little dude was staring right up at me. Tried to remember how the late, great Steve Irwin would handle that situation and slowly backed away. It was probably just typical garden snake basking in a sunny opening but it’s def not something you expect to run into this time of year. 

[DavisStraight]

38 minutes ago, Snowedin said:

Funny you mention that. I happened to stumble across a skinny snake as I was trekking the woods earlier and that little dude was staring right up at me. Tried to remember how the late, great Steve Irwin would handle that situation and slowly backed away. It was probably just typical garden snake basking in a sunny opening but it’s def not something you expect to run into this time of year. 

I don't like to run into one any time of the year, I get some living in my woodpile probably looking for mice that makes nests in there.

[Modfan2]

So yesterday was 84F in CT and tied a November record in the “Hartford Area”……what town is the “Hartford Area”? Is that Kevin? 

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

So yesterday was 84F in CT and tied a November record in the “Hartford Area”……what town is the “Hartford Area”? Is that Kevin? 

Hartford 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hartford 

No Sherlock Holmes ... It was Bradley International Airport. Not Hartford. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

No Sherlock Holmes ... It was Bradley International Airport. Not Hartford. 

Actually HFD area is Hartford not Bradley. They have separate listing in xmACIS2

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually HFD area is Hartford not Bradley. They have separate listing in xmACIS2

He drunk 

[wx_observer]

Seems to be a theme emerging for the winter season.  Might hedge my bets again this year and pay per diem for snow removal instead of a flat rate for the whole season.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

No Sherlock Holmes ... It was Bradley International Airport. Not Hartford. 

 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually HFD area is Hartford not Bradley. They have separate listing in xmACIS2

The 84F in “Hartford Area” was BDL.

HFD only hit 80F.

If you go here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=box

And click on “Hartford Area” it gives you the BDL data.

 

[Modfan2]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

The 84F in “Hartford Area” was BDL.

HFD only hit 80F.

If you go here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=box

And click on “Hartford Area” it gives you the BDL data.

 

Kind of my point, just say 84F in Windsor Locks, not Hartford Area.

[weatherwiz]

I mean BDL isn't too far from downtown Hartford. About 15 minutes without traffic....6 hours with traffic. 

[GCWarrior]

Walked the dog at 5:45pm yesterday, pitch dark and 70 degrees!  Wild times! Maybe we can get things back to like +5 for a bit even.  At least snow can be made up north and hopes can go up a little.  GFS seems to be trending to towards more Novemberesk recently.  

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I am interested to know why this may be a mirage, tropical forcings perhaps?

At first glance the high-latitude dynamics seem like they would be sufficient to temporarily tighten up the lambda on the continental rossby waveguide 

heh may not be quite that bad, 'mirage'     didn't mean to come off dismissive - sorry

presently, the pna mode is going negative.   for other nerds like me that pay attention to the tedium of telecons may find it interesting that the pna has in fact been positive during this last two weeks of pulsed warm explosions ... yeah, a little weird.   so, there's some incongruity going on.  okay, in an orthodox sense, the -pna at this time of year fits ( perhaps some lag) -naos . 

because of this alone, that teleconnects to heights falls between cape cod and new fundland.  the models do this thing, though, where they end up going crazy with those set ins that are ... d11's or whatever, with either lows(highs) that pass through those constructive interference regions - which are also ephemeral.  it's all timing. it's really when the linear wave function/features, the ones that are coherently trackable in guidance, vs the non-linear wave functions, the 'invisible' constructive vs destructive inteference nodes that are also bubbling in and out of existence, all time well vs poorly.  when they time well in models, march 1993, or january 26 1978 or enter flogging here [   ] etc.  when they time poorly, march 2001 in the mid atlantic.    but, this ( i suspect ) is at least related to why the models attenuate either troughs, or ridges, by some 20 to 30% as features in the outer frames age toward the inner middle range so often. 

so, the orbital correlation says there's room to lower heights where the models have been toying with that idea, but there's not a lot of baroclinc gradient going on in the wholesale hemisphere - owing probably to lacking anticedent pac circulation mode cutting that off.. maybe i dunno. cc may be involved too. hell.    anyway, putting all this together, seems like a candidate to attenuate that ...   

this is all predicated on there actually being a -nao response to the arriving -pna, too.    -nao could also be biased east ... low predictive skill right now

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

The 84F in “Hartford Area” was BDL.

HFD only hit 80F.

If you go here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=box

And click on “Hartford Area” it gives you the BDL data.

 

Imagine saying Worcester area when reporting Auburn Mass temp. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein is everywhere now and locking in for a very dry winter and spring. 
 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein is everywhere now and locking in for a very dry winter and spring. 
 

Torch! Absolutely love  it no energy for heat or cool needed. No bills.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein is everywhere now and locking in for a very dry winter and spring. 
 

It's gonna rain this weekend 

[metagraphica]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's gonna rain this weekend 

Maybe some showers Sunday night into Monday AM.  We'll see.

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

At what point does the drought start to affect folks?

Those who remember the 4-year drought in the 1960s would call this merely a dry spell.  When Quabbin drops below 50% capacity, that's a drought.  (This isn't downplaying the fire danger from crispy leaves and surface drying.  "Real" drought brings plunging water tables and dry wells.)

Morning low of 48 is 20° AN.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He drunk 

Are your girls still in soccer in high school? Big state quarterfinal game tonight Seymour vs Tolland at Mount Seymour. 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Are your girls still in soccer in high school? Big state quarterfinal game tonight Seymour vs Tolland at Mount Seymour. 

I think he said they ran away from home. They couldn't take the constant buzz of air conditioners.