CoastalWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Let's end this mini drought with a bang A violent sell 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 35 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Let's end this mini drought with a bang It's coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 It’s(the dry period) gonna end at some point… 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Just now, WinterWolf said: It’s(the dry period) gonna end at some point… It should get more active later in the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: More soaking rains for NNE tonight . Nailed it 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 2 minutes ago, tunafish said: Nailed it I fear mushrooms are going to start spouting with the .07 I've received this week. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 12 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said: Seen this hurricane season take a few times, the NOAA forecast has verified across named storms, total hurricanes and major hurricanes. Odd distribution across the season but yes it's verifying In fact another storm or two is probable after Rafael and a hyperactive ACE is still in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Little surprised there is no Red Flag warning down here, although I guess RH is a little high; winds a little concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: What’s EPS have? Euro op sucks. EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Yeah I looked myself. Hopefully GFS suite is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Alrighty quite breezy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 if we don't get rid of this cc-attributable higher water vapor content at 13 k feet gunk, global warming will cause today to be a cold bust at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 novie was seldom a winter month along the 42nd ... that changed in climate recency. i've lived as far west as kalamazoo mi, vs locally, my whole life. regardless of either end, novie only became a month that serves cryo events more recently decade(s). prior, it was always more like smelling like snow during cold rains ( ...none of this describes whatever your weather culture was up in higher terrain) anyway.. we're passing through the doorway into solar minimum. right on cue ( or is it queue ) the operataional model runs are painting -20C above the 70th parallel. there's cold air around, it's a matter of access. cpc is selling an ao mode relaxation, if not change, from the lofty index. this is apparently dragging the nao as well. these are not yet compelling because at this time of year, ...index forecasting is error prone, almost as stochastic as the daily model at times. we'll have to see. but the epo is negative at some sources ive seen out there between d10 and 2 weeks... putting these together, they're like the light over the horizon even if the winter day is not yet dawned in the models. for now, we enjoy ludicrous warmth followed by seasonal temperatures, before repeating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: novie was seldom a winter month along the 42nd ... that changed in climate recency. i've lived as far west as kalamazoo mi, vs locally, my whole life. regardless of either end, novie only became a month that serves cryo events more recently decade(s). prior, it was always more like smelling like snow during cold rains ( ...none of this describes whatever your weather culture was up in higher terrain) anyway.. we're passing through the doorway into solar minimum. right on cue ( or is it queue ) the operataional model runs are painting -20C above the 70th parallel. there's cold air around, it's a matter of access. cpc is selling an ao mode relaxation, if not change, from the lofty index. this is apparently dragging the nao as well. these are not yet compelling because at this time of year, ...index forecasting is almost as stochastic as the daily model at times. we'll have to see. but the epo is negative at some sources ive seen out there between d10 and 2 weeks... putting these today, there like the light over the horizon even the winter days is not yet dawned in the models. for now, we enjoy ludicrous warmth followed by seasonal temperatures, before repeating I don't know about that Tip. Looks like Novie used to serve up way more cryo events in the distant past. 1950, of course, was the grandaddy of them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't know about that Tip. Looks like Novie used to serve up way more cryo events in the distant past. 1950, of course, was the grandaddy of them all. Your neck of the woods looks similar, although I can kind of see what you mean. There was a bit of resurgence in the 1980s and 1990s, but less than the 1930s and 1940s at Logan. It's only in the last 15 years or so where it's always a shutout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I don't know about that Tip. Looks like Novie used to serve up way more cryo events in the distant past. 1950, of course, was the grandaddy of them all. jesus, how old do you think i am ? lol 1950 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: jesus, how old do you think i am ? lol 1950 Lol, no I did say I saw your point in the BOS snowfall data - assuming you were referring to the time from the 1980s to early 2000s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Your neck of the woods looks similar, although I can kind of see what you mean. There was a bit of resurgence in the 1980s and 1990s, but less than the 1930s and 1940s at Logan. It's only in the last 15 years or so where it's always a shutout. either way ... it should be going the warm way as certain aspect that shall remain diplomatic ... continue to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Just brutal for all winter wx fans. Brutal Nov leading to brutal dryness winter https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1853825304994742418?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just brutal for all winter wx fans. Brutal Nov leading to brutal dryness winter https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1853825304994742418?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Like the last several years, it will come down to whether or not we can time the relatively short cold periods with an active storm pattern... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 12z GFS trying to form another cat 5 day 10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z GFS trying to form another cat 5 day 10 lol That's far more likely than any shot at snow or even BN temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's far more likely than any shot at snow or even BN temps gets down to 915mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 1 hour ago, FXWX said: Like the last several years, it will come down to whether or not we can time the relatively short cold periods with an active storm pattern... At this juncture ,that’s about the best we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 1 hour ago, FXWX said: Like the last several years, it will come down to whether or not we can time the relatively short cold periods with an active storm pattern... yup. Timing a 2wk favorable pattern is what our winters have become lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: jesus, how old do you think i am ? lol 1950 I'm confident that you're familiar with the Great Appalachian Gale. In NNJ we were well into the warm side, with moderate rain and very strong winds - lots of fallen leaf-off oaks and maples. In my experience, only the backside NW gales behind the blizzard that ate Bangor on 12/31/62 can compete with the winds of 11/25/50. Going back to Stein - I noted that NYC recorded only 0.01" for October, their driest month since records began in 1869 and only June 1949 (0.02") is close. 3rd driest is 0.14" in Oct 1963. (EWR had only traces last month. Their previous record was 0.07", June 1949 and May 2021.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 No sign of any cold weather through 384 on the gfs. Weird. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 What does Mark Magarbage think? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 If we can just somehow shift that ridging over the Aleutians or maintain it and then shift it into the GoA moving into Dec. that could be a big gam changer. But I really worry with how pronounced that ridging is which extends from the Pacific through Mexico and into the Southeast U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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