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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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6 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Thing is, it’s not even late fall yet. Another 3 weeks or so it will be getting there though.  But even 8 years ago…in the Super Nino of 2016, you guys killed it with the monster blizzard there in the city. That missed most of SNE(Southern CT did well. Here in central CT I got about 10-12 from it. But Once north of here it dropped off dramatically). So shit happens.  

Oh no doubt about it!  To be clear, I’m not in the it-will-never-snow-again camp.  It will.  But as an avowed retention snob who—perhaps sadistically—lives for any kind of cold during the fall and winter, things have been tough for me down here since ‘14–15.

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10 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Listen, I don’t pretend to know how much snow we’re gonna get.  All I know is that it will snow here in SNE this winter.  
 

Long range forecasting is a crapshoot at best…just look at what happened with the hurricane season forecast, it was a complete bust.  So I mean I put very little faith into anything that is 4-6 weeks out at this moment.  And for the heart of the winter we are 2.5-3 months out…so unless somebody has a crystal ball, I’m not buying into anything on 11/4.   But that’s just me. If you guys want to worry yourselves to death, that’s up to you. 

Seen this hurricane season take a few times, the NOAA forecast has verified across named storms, total hurricanes and major hurricanes.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think temps are the question . Everyone is in agreement that it’s another warm winter . Even @40/70 Benchmark. The question is will there be much qpf or do we go the way of 2001/02.. where the drought started late summer and continued right thru the winter and into the following summer . A dry winter is very much a concern and worry 

I don't know, everything I have looked at indicates that it's more of a concern than a worry.

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The ensemble means don’t look ideal, it is what it is.  That doesn’t mean it won’t snow or get cold.  The same goes for great looking patterns, that doesn’t mean it will snow.

Hopefully that’s a baseline understanding for most on here.

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime

when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining.   are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime

when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining.   are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

 

 

Accept that it won't snow in November? Done.

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime

when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining.   are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

That’s not psycho babble bargaining in my thought process.

Statistically, the long term pattern looks highly unfavorable.  Everything is currently stacked against a solid cold precip event in New England.

But if I’m a forecaster, I’m leaving open the chance of sneaking in an impactful winter weather event in this NNE climate despite the highly unfavorable background weeks 3-6.

Its an afterthought, but sometimes one sneaks in during the low solar time of year.  The most likely scenario is the mean outlook though.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't read back that far, but still no issue.

i am interested in the cpc handling of the ao(nao) lately

thats correlated with mjo space 8 which is also prevalent - 

that coupling presages -epo… or tends to.  not sure if peppeRONI should only apply to enso, but all telecons 

anyway the rna may be in the way  persistence 

 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Biggest question which model is correct for rain on Sunday? GFS bringing the remnants of Raphael up here or Euro which doesn’t and is total Stein . Based on persistence .. how could one side with the GFS?

What’s EPS have? Euro op sucks. 

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