Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[dendrite]

  On 11/4/2024 at 10:59 PM, WinterWolf said:

So isn’t that valid on Wednesday evening at 7pm?  75 degrees at 7pm…that would be cool to see. 

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It’s the max temp for the day ending at that time.

[powderfreak]

  On 11/4/2024 at 11:01 PM, dendrite said:

It’s the max temp for the day ending at that time.

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Hopefully it’ll offset the pain of this…

[WinterWolf]

  On 11/4/2024 at 11:01 PM, dendrite said:

It’s the max temp for the day ending at that time.

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Ok, that makes sense now. Thanks for the clarification. 

[Damage In Tolland]

More soaking rains for NNE tonight .

[powderfreak]

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:01 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

More soaking rains for NNE tonight .

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Radar looks like more bark than bite.  Returns look healthy for like 0.02”/hr rates lol.

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah NNE rains look light. However at least wet surfaces, unlike here.  dry as a gotdam

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of fires next 3 days in SNE with 30 mph + winds 

[Eduardo]

  On 11/4/2024 at 5:48 PM, WinterWolf said:

Thing is, it’s not even late fall yet. Another 3 weeks or so it will be getting there though.  But even 8 years ago…in the Super Nino of 2016, you guys killed it with the monster blizzard there in the city. That missed most of SNE(Southern CT did well. Here in central CT I got about 10-12 from it. But Once north of here it dropped off dramatically). So shit happens.  

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Oh no doubt about it!  To be clear, I’m not in the it-will-never-snow-again camp.  It will.  But as an avowed retention snob who—perhaps sadistically—lives for any kind of cold during the fall and winter, things have been tough for me down here since ‘14–15.

[Boston Bulldog]

  On 11/4/2024 at 2:45 PM, WinterWolf said:

Listen, I don’t pretend to know how much snow we’re gonna get.  All I know is that it will snow here in SNE this winter.  
 

Long range forecasting is a crapshoot at best…just look at what happened with the hurricane season forecast, it was a complete bust.  So I mean I put very little faith into anything that is 4-6 weeks out at this moment.  And for the heart of the winter we are 2.5-3 months out…so unless somebody has a crystal ball, I’m not buying into anything on 11/4.   But that’s just me. If you guys want to worry yourselves to death, that’s up to you. 

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Seen this hurricane season take a few times, the NOAA forecast has verified across named storms, total hurricanes and major hurricanes.

[alex]

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:05 AM, powderfreak said:

Radar looks like more bark than bite.  Returns look healthy for like 0.02”/hr rates lol.

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We’ve had some very light mixed precipitation and that’s it 

[Torch Tiger]

So dry

worthy of a repeat

[ineedsnow]

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:05 AM, powderfreak said:

Radar looks like more bark than bite.  Returns look healthy for like 0.02”/hr rates lol.

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had a quick shower here.. wasn't expecting anything at all 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/4/2024 at 10:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think temps are the question . Everyone is in agreement that it’s another warm winter . Even @40/70 Benchmark. The question is will there be much qpf or do we go the way of 2001/02.. where the drought started late summer and continued right thru the winter and into the following summer . A dry winter is very much a concern and worry 

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I don't know, everything I have looked at indicates that it's more of a concern than a worry.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 11/4/2024 at 6:44 PM, powderfreak said:

The ensemble means don’t look ideal, it is what it is.  That doesn’t mean it won’t snow or get cold.  The same goes for great looking patterns, that doesn’t mean it will snow.

Hopefully that’s a baseline understanding for most on here.

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Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime

when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining.   are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/5/2024 at 1:49 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime

when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining.   are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

 

 

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Accept that it won't snow in November? Done.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 11/5/2024 at 1:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Accept that it won't snow in November? Done.

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I’m pretty sure the topic of Scott’s point was “into December“ but sure

[powderfreak]

  On 11/5/2024 at 1:13 AM, alex said:

We’ve had some very light mixed precipitation and that’s it 

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There were some sleet pellets at the onset here with temps in the upper 30s.  It was cold at summit level, then warm above that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 11/5/2024 at 2:00 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m pretty sure the topic of Scott’s point was “into December“ but sure

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I didn't read back that far, but still no issue.

[powderfreak]

  On 11/5/2024 at 1:49 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime

when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining.   are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

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That’s not psycho babble bargaining in my thought process.

Statistically, the long term pattern looks highly unfavorable.  Everything is currently stacked against a solid cold precip event in New England.

But if I’m a forecaster, I’m leaving open the chance of sneaking in an impactful winter weather event in this NNE climate despite the highly unfavorable background weeks 3-6.

Its an afterthought, but sometimes one sneaks in during the low solar time of year.  The most likely scenario is the mean outlook though.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 11/5/2024 at 2:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't read back that far, but still no issue.

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i am interested in the cpc handling of the ao(nao) lately

thats correlated with mjo space 8 which is also prevalent - 

that coupling presages -epo… or tends to.  not sure if peppeRONI should only apply to enso, but all telecons 

anyway the rna may be in the way  persistence 

 

[moneypitmike]

dheck this out:

Cory gets a mention in this article!

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-trump-showdown-first-votes-cast-midnight-tiny-new-hampshire-township

[dendrite]

MAV has 80° at BDL now tomorrow. That would be the latest 80° on record. LFG

[UnitedWx]

  On 11/4/2024 at 2:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

What if it doesn't snow in December?

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Well then, we'll see. Most of my really decent years in north central CT didn't have any appreciable snow until around Christmas / New Years. 1992 is a memorable exception and I'm not Will,  CRS is a serious problem...

[WinterWolf]

Lol…only 80 on that map for frying pan BDL, other than what looks to be Newark.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 11/5/2024 at 8:59 AM, moneypitmike said:

dheck this out:

Cory gets a mention in this article!

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-trump-showdown-first-votes-cast-midnight-tiny-new-hampshire-township

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Yeah. He has done that before I think. 

[CoastalWx]

Summer is back

[Damage In Tolland]

Biggest question which model is correct for rain on Sunday? GFS bringing the remnants of Raphael up here or Euro which doesn’t and is total Stein . Based on persistence .. how could one side with the GFS?

[ineedsnow]

Let's end this mini drought with a bang 

[WinterWolf]

That would make a dent. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 11/5/2024 at 12:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Biggest question which model is correct for rain on Sunday? GFS bringing the remnants of Raphael up here or Euro which doesn’t and is total Stein . Based on persistence .. how could one side with the GFS?

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What’s EPS have? Euro op sucks.