Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Theres like two themes going on… Wolfie seems to be reading these like it’s never going to snow at all this winter.

“Pattern looks unfavorable.”

”It will snow at some point between now and April.”

Nobody has, or will ever like negative takes on this board. I'm not cancelling winter, just not a fan of things heading into December. Hopefully it changes later in the month. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody has, or will ever like negative takes on this board. I'm not cancelling winter, just not a fan of things heading into December. Hopefully it changes later in the month. 

The ensemble means don’t look ideal, it is what it is.  That doesn’t mean it won’t snow or get cold.  The same goes for great looking patterns, that doesn’t mean it will snow.

Hopefully that’s a baseline understanding for most on here.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Theres like two themes going on… Wolfie seems to be reading these like it’s never going to snow at all this winter.

“Pattern looks unfavorable.”

”It will snow at some point between now and April.”

But that’s not what I was saying either. I was talking about December mostly. Some think because we don’t get snow in December, winter is a bust.  We have others on here that seem at least, to want to cancel winter altogether.   I was just giving my take.  
 

And also to reply to Scott’s response about negative takes, I’m fine with them…but not saying it at 4-6 weeks out..:I’m sorry, I don’t go along with those.  Maybe Two weeks out..ok.  But Not a month out. Too much can happen in 4 weeks time, that can change that look imo.  

[bwt3650]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody has, or will ever like negative takes on this board. I'm not cancelling winter, just not a fan of things heading into December. Hopefully it changes later in the month. 

There's a difference between a met saying it doesn't look favorable going into December and things like "this year will be a repeat of last year" "I wonder if we don't get a frost til Xmas" "this is the new normal" "30 degrees isn't a freeze" "NNE used to always be white in early October" etc.  Just like there has to be pushback against the wish casting for snow, I give Wolfie credit for pushing back against some of the dumb shit, funny as it may be sometimes.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

There's a difference between a met saying it doesn't look favorable going into December and things like "this year will be a repeat of last year" "I wonder if we don't get a frost til Xmas" "this is the new normal" "30 degrees isn't a freeze" "NNE used to always be white in early October" etc.  Just like there has to be pushback against the wish casting for snow, I give Wolfie credit for pushing back against some of the dumb shit, funny as it may be sometimes.  

To be clear I am also more SNE centric. We know even in NNE, unfavorable looks can still deliver. 

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But that’s not what I was saying either. I was talking about December mostly. Some think because we don’t get snow in December, winter is a bust.  We have others on here that seem at least, to want to cancel winter altogether.   I was just giving my take.  
 

And also to reply to Scott’s response about negative takes, I’m fine with them…but not saying it at 4-6 weeks out..:I’m sorry, I don’t go along with those.  Maybe Two weeks out..ok.  But Not a month out. Too much can happen in 4 weeks time, that can change that look imo.  

I think there is enough skill based on the guidance I see to say with confidence that is doesn't look favorable for the next 4 weeks. Especially SNE. Could we always sneak in something? Sure...but just speaking on a high level.

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

There's a difference between a met saying it doesn't look favorable going into December and things like "this year will be a repeat of last year" "I wonder if we don't get a frost til Xmas" "this is the new normal" "30 degrees isn't a freeze" "NNE used to always be white in early October" etc.  Just like there has to be pushback against the wish casting for snow, I give Wolfie credit for pushing back against some of the dumb shit, funny as it may be sometimes.  

Yeah, I thought we weren't going to get a freeze until after Thanksgiving, swear I read that. Been down to mid 20s two nights in a row and I don't radiate.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Yeah, I thought we weren't going to get a freeze until after Thanksgiving, swear I read that. Been down to mid 20s two nights in a row and I don't radiate.

You did read that. Lol. 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there is enough skill based on the guidance I see to say with confidence that is doesn't look favorable for the next 4 weeks. Especially SNE. Could we always sneak in something? Sure...but just speaking on a high level.

A month from now on December 4th or 5th, and a little beyond that…that’s pushing it imo.

Again, not expecting any wintry weather in most of November is fine by looking ahead. But towards the end of November is starting to be a stretch imo, Because as you said, things can be snuck in towards the end of that period as well. But we got peeps writing off all kinds of stuff now, cuz that’s what happens in here. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

A month from now on December 4th or 5th, and a little beyond that…that’s pushing it imo.

Again, not expecting any wintry weather in most of November is fine by looking ahead. But towards the end of November is starting to be a stretch imo, Because as you said, things can be snuck in towards the end of that period as well. But we got peeps writing off all kinds of stuff now, cuz that’s what happens in here. 

There is a little more skill saying a pattern is unfavorable vs favorable, especially early in the season. A favorable pattern still needs the right track. So while patterns can look favorable, you still can't be sure of a low track within a 50 mile certainty to deliver, 4 weeks out. 

However, A big ridge in the east on almost all guidance says to me that there is more confidence in saying a pattern is unfavorable. Whether the low tracks over ORD or SYR has the same effect for us vs having something pass at a favorable location with a good antecedent airmass. If that makes sense.

Again, not cancelling winter or even December, just not a fan of how things look heading into the beginning of the month. That has no bearing on winter.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a little more skill saying a pattern is unfavorable vs favorable, especially early in the season. A favorable pattern still needs the right track. So while patterns can look favorable, you still can't be sure of a low track within a 50 mile certainty to deliver, 4 weeks out. 

However, A big ridge in the east on almost all guidance says to me that there is more confidence in saying a pattern is unfavorable. Whether the low tracks over ORD or SYR has the same effect for us vs having something pass at a favorable location with a good antecedent airmass. If that makes sense.

Again, not cancelling winter or even December, just not a fan of how things look heading into the beginning of the month. That has no bearing on winter.

Ok.,I agree with that idea. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

There's a difference between a met saying it doesn't look favorable going into December and things like "this year will be a repeat of last year" "I wonder if we don't get a frost til Xmas" "this is the new normal" "30 degrees isn't a freeze" "NNE used to always be white in early October" etc.  Just like there has to be pushback against the wish casting for snow, I give Wolfie credit for pushing back against some of the dumb shit, funny as it may be sometimes.  

The irony is the one saying no frosts until Xmas is the same one who 5-10 years ago used to see 0.10-0.25" QPF as snow and call for 4-8" to start, maybe more.

The late frost/freeze stuff is largely because that poster might literally be the last place in New England to see a frost or freeze.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The irony is the one saying no frosts until Xmas is the same one who 5-10 years ago used to see 0.10-0.25" QPF as snow and call for 4-8" to start, maybe more.

The late frost/freeze stuff is largely because that poster might literally be the last place in New England to see a frost or freeze.

 

This is going to be my 11th or 12th winter on the board. Joined when I was 19, going to Be 31 in March.

I laugh at the changes in posting style of people over the years. “This is easily 6-12” River East” has now become “no freeze or snow until January”.

 

while it’s mostly hyperbole and looking to get a rise, there are always pieces of truth in it. A lot has changed in the last 12 years. We had some great years in the early to mid 2010s, but we’re been on a pretty bad stinker overall the last half decade plus.

 

The last five years have been garbage, minus the Jan 22 blizzard locally. Very few all snow events, very few favorable patterns, very poor retention, and very short “winter” windows.

If you don’t thinks are changing on a larger scale, I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[Allsnow]

9 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What an autumn…best of our lives.  Frosts and freezes at night a few times a week. A few days of crisp autumn temps each week, then a few days of temps that rebound back into the 70’s each week.  And every day sunny.  I mean, what’s not to like?    Its the best of all worlds.  Just a Sensational  fall for SNE. Let’s keep it going. 

Yup…just completely normal

 

 

[wokeupthisam]

I check in here for both the met insights, and the banter.  Both are interesting enough to me to spend a decent amt of time reading and checking in.  It's fun.  The emotional reactions are a part of that, for better or worse.  When I hear mets talking about favorable patterns it gives me a boost in day to day interest of what might happen, and I start hoping for something memorable.  When patterns aren't favorable, it takes my day-to-day interest down a few notches, that's all.  For all the obvious reasons (sudden recurving typhoon to proverbial butterfly wings in Mongolia) there's always a chance something unexpected happens.  To think otherwise is just foolish.  That said, long years of watching models has me realizing that when persistent patterns set in, it's time to watch for (met) signs of a change.  And then when they inevitably show up, realizing they're more often delayed beyond the original fcst window.  But getting mad at mets who are simply saying what the models show is an entertaining study in futile emotions, same as denial and wishcasting.  It's all part of the board drama. 

All that said, I'm fine with a toasty November but hoping real signs of a mid-December change start showing up.  Like others here, I hate to lose late December to torches so hoping the grinch takes a much-needed break this year for a change.

  

[Torch Tiger]

For the cold crew, there are far more negative signals than positive going into this winter.  That's all we know.  Tick-tock

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

For the cold crew, there are far more negative signals than positive going into this winter.  That's all we know.  Tick-tock

In a couple months the seed starting gear will be out in the box stores. 

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In a couple months the seed starting gear will be out in the box stores. 

As usual.  I often get my Johnny's Selected Seeds catalog during winter's coldest.

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In a couple months the seed starting gear will be out in the box stores. 

Serious q: what's your opinion for this upcoming winter and your local area?  temp/snow +/-

[dendrite]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Serious q: what's your opinion for this upcoming winter and your local area?  temp/snow +/-

Honestly no thoughts. I have looked at nothing. It’s always a wild card here anyway with the amount of ways it can snow and retain pack. I don’t like looking out beyond 2-3 weeks anyway…not my thang.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don’t think temps are the question . Everyone is in agreement that it’s another warm winter . Even @40/70 Benchmark. The question is will there be much qpf or do we go the way of 2001/02.. where the drought started late summer and continued right thru the winter and into the following summer . A dry winter is very much a concern and worry 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is going to be my 11th or 12th winter on the board. Joined when I was 19, going to Be 31 in March.

I laugh at the changes in posting style of people over the years. “This is easily 6-12” River East” has now become “no freeze or snow until January”.

 

while it’s mostly hyperbole and looking to get a rise, there are always pieces of truth in it. A lot has changed in the last 12 years. We had some great years in the early to mid 2010s, but we’re been on a pretty bad stinker overall the last half decade plus.

 

The last five years have been garbage, minus the Jan 22 blizzard locally. Very few all snow events, very few favorable patterns, very poor retention, and very short “winter” windows.

If you don’t thinks are changing on a larger scale, I don’t know what to tell you.

 

You just described the 80’s to a T.  You’re way to young to remember it though. 

[J Paul Gordon]

High 50, Low 26 Dpt (now) 33

Couple of abnormally warm, almost hot days considering the time of year. Then back to N-AN to unusually warm on the 11th. Average high in my area is in the low 50's. It doesn't go below 50 until the 17th. So, we'll probably end up 4-5 degrees above normal for the month.

I think Tip predicted 4+ monthly for the cold season ahead. He'll probably be right for the last month of autumn, and November is a reasonably good predicter for the winter (with numerous exceptions). Long and short of it, another mild winter but not necessarily a bust. If we push the of 4 AN into January we go from a high around 34 to a high around 38. We turn into Boston, not DC.

As with all things, we'll just have to wait and see. That's what makes weather here in New England fun as opposed to weather in LA or Orlando.

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think temps are the question . Everyone is in agreement that it’s another warm winter . Even @40/70 Benchmark. The question is will there be much qpf or do we go the way of 2001/02.. where the drought started late summer and continued right thru the winter and into the following summer . A dry winter is very much a concern and worry 

yeah it's probably going to be warm, possibly blowtorch.  blowtorch would be very concerning for SNE snowfall #'s but less so for Caribou/Houlton etc., though they'd probably have some relative issues too.

[dendrite]

MOSGW

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOSGW

It’s unreal.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOSGW

LFG on that.

[dendrite]

Only 60s and low 70s tomorrow. Chilly.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s unreal.

So isn’t that valid on Wednesday evening at 7pm?  75 degrees at 7pm…that would be cool to see. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So isn’t that valid on Wednesday evening at 7pm?  75 degrees at 7pm…that would be cool to see. 

“Surface maximum temperature.”

I think it’s the max reached in the previous 6 hours.