Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Eduardo]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm worried.

Visiting you all from the NYC sub.  I’m probably even more worried.  Would love for it to at least feel like late fall here.  After a decade of freakishly warm winters, I must admit, it’s actually starting to get to me a bit.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern looks like garbage into December.

We got a month before December arrives…and then it’s 5-6 weeks until the middle of December.  Ya can’t know what can happen in 4-6 weeks from now either. And if December isn’t good…oh well. Summer sometimes doesn’t get warm/hot until we get to July many times.  We will see how it plays out. Years ago this stuff used to worry me, and piss me off too.  Not so much anymore.  Winter will come..that is a fact. 

[CoastalWx]

I'm not spouting hyperbole, just don't like what I see heading into December. Feels like the same shit from last few winters. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah .. it’ll start snowing and blowing on Dec 1. Just keep November hot and dry . It’ll change. It always does 

Dumb statement. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not spouting hyperbole, just don't like what I see heading into December. Feels like the same shit from last few winters. 

You’re saying this on November 4th? And Maybe it is…we had the same shit for many winters back in the 80’s too…and it sucked.   But It happens. So now you’re a fan of week four and five on the weeklies?  

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re saying this on November 4th? And Maybe it is…we had the same shit for many winters back in the 80’s too…and it sucked.   But It happens. So now you’re a fan of week four and five on the weeklies?  

Everything looks like crap overall heading into December. I don't see this magical change occurring. Maybe it gets better during the month itself. The overall Pacific has not changed much despite the ENSO shift from Nino.

[WinterWolf]

Listen, I don’t pretend to know how much snow we’re gonna get.  All I know is that it will snow here in SNE this winter.  
 

Long range forecasting is a crapshoot at best…just look at what happened with the hurricane season forecast, it was a complete bust.  So I mean I put very little faith into anything that is 4-6 weeks out at this moment.  And for the heart of the winter we are 2.5-3 months out…so unless somebody has a crystal ball, I’m not buying into anything on 11/4.   But that’s just me. If you guys want to worry yourselves to death, that’s up to you. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everything looks like crap overall heading into December. I don't see this magical change occurring. Maybe it gets better during the month itself. The overall Pacific has not changed much despite the ENSO shift from Nino.

But we just got into November ?  And there are things that can’t be seen at this point, that can shake that up at any point, and in both directions.  So that is always a distinct possibility as well.  

[WinterWolf]

And to be honest…if December ends up sucking, that certainly doesn’t mean the whole winter will suck either.  Yes, I like December snow as much as anybody, but sometimes it just doesn’t snow alot here in SNE in December..and that’s just how it goes, more often than not.  I’m not a fan of that, but that is how it goes many times. But I certainly hope we get some winter action this December as much as anybody. 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Dumb statement. 

There’s a reason why Will isn’t posting 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a reason why Will isn’t posting 

Ya..he doesn’t want to listen to this hyperbole BS.  I don’t blame him.  

[WinterWolf]

If you guys want to worry yourselves over something you can’t possibly know at this stage, that’s up to you all. I choose not to, and look forward to how things will play out.  
 

Maybe it’ll suck ass, and we won’t get an inch of snow this whole winter.  I guess it can happen right?  But That would be kind of fun in its own right though too…

[SouthCoastMA]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not spouting hyperbole, just don't like what I see heading into December. Feels like the same shit from last few winters. 

That's how it feels. I've been occassional watching the models, not to check for snow..but to see when our next warmup will be. I have no scientific evidence to be back this up, but the pattern and storm tracks in the OP runs have definitely given me vibes of the past few winters. I typically don't check models for snow chances until after Thanksgiving anyway,but even that seems kinda foolish at this point

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If you guys want to worry yourselves over something you can’t possibly know at this stage, that’s up to you all. I choose not to, and look forward to how things will play out.  
 

Maybe it’ll suck ass, and we won’t get an inch of snow this whole winter.  I guess it can happen right?  But That would be kind of fun in its own right though too…

Most of the fun I get from Winter nowadays is seeing modeled snow chances that don't materialize. Clinging on to that 5% chance that one cycle of the 126 HR GFS/Euro OP run giving me 24" can hold. But I don't let it get to me like it used to. I have a family now and other things to worry about. It would be nice to get a blockbuster though, even if the rest of the winter torches. 

[Brian5671]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not spouting hyperbole, just don't like what I see heading into December. Feels like the same shit from last few winters. 

Hostile Pacific-marine heat wave east of Japan, cold water south of Alaska, Warm around Australia...no bueno for sustained cold here

[DavisStraight]

Wolfie have his hackles up this morning.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Technology yesterday hit 30.9 and first in car tops  but with nothing frozen or killed.. its bit a freeze . I just don’t get the excitement over frosts. A few posters are sitting naked in metal folding chairs over it. To each their own I suppose. 

So all the WSOs issuing frost advisories and freeze warnings are just being silly (along with all the farmers who grow warm weather crops outside of greenhouses)?

Haven't looked at the max-min yet.  It was low 20s last evening but clouded over about dawn, currently mid 30s with echoes overhead but no chance of precip thanks to lots of dry air (as usual).  Yesterday's 19 was the 3rd sub-20 morning here, but the bok choy still looks fine.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Wolfie have his hackles up this morning.

Just fielding a few ground balls in spring training, sharpening up his claws in preparation for full evisceration by meteorogical winter. 

[CoastalWx]

There has been a semi-permanent ridge north of AK. I suppose that is good to see as you get into the cold season. 

[weatherwiz]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everything looks like crap overall heading into December. I don't see this magical change occurring. Maybe it gets better during the month itself. The overall Pacific has not changed much despite the ENSO shift from Nino.

I'm beginning to think that when it comes our region, outside of strong ENSO events, ENSO has little correlation on us. We've seen weak events and moderate events which have produced poor snow winters, cold winters, warm winter, prolific snow winters, etc. I know there are stats and data out there on this I just don't know it off the top of my head, but let's say like 55% of weak La Nina winters produced above-average snowfall across the major climo sites...that's not really much of a correlation. 

Given where our region is located, there are so many other influences which help shape and define the pattern that I think at the end of the day the overall correlation of ENSO to us is very little (outside of strong events). 

I've gone back to the drawing board with assessing La Nina Events, EL Nino events, neutral phases. Starting from scratch with breaking down events by strength (using the oceanic definitions) for the ENS-ONI, ONI, RONI and then looking at SOI data (using Long Paddock method), and then will incorporate MEI data. When it comes to ENSO and defining events, there is so much focus and emphasis on just oceanic SST's but the atmospheric response may be just as critical or hold more weight than the state and structure of SST's. 

I've also always wondered how much of an influence patterns over Europe/Asia get the ball rolling. How the pattern evolves here eventually has downstream ramifications across the PAC...and this is when you introduce influences such as ENSO/MJO activity which help shape the pattern across the PAC...then this eventually has downstream ramifications on the pattern across North America, however, you also have what's going on within the PNA/EPO/NAO/AO domains which will help shape the pattern across North America. 

What sucks is we have ENSO data which dates back to the 1800's but obviously that data needs to be used with precaution and we don't have a great database on variables such as OLR, winds, SSTs really until the satellite era began. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not spouting hyperbole, just don't like what I see heading into December. Feels like the same shit from last few winters. 

.....the deniers will disagree...

[WinterWolf]

It’s all good guys. Spirited discussion is good.  Some good points on both sides of the coin. 
 

Maybe it never really gets conducive for much snow this year?  Maybe we time some good shortwaves right? So many variables that can produce, or not produce snow here.  Gotta just roll the dice and see how we do.   As with most everyone else in here, I’m hoping for some decent events.  If we see none, then what can you do.… 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s all good guys. Spirited discussion is good.  Some good points on both sides of the coin. 
 

Maybe it never really gets conducive for much snow this year?  Maybe we time some good shortwaves right? So many variables that can produce, or not produce snow here.  Gotta just roll the dice and see how we do.   As with most everyone else in here, I’m hoping for some decent events.  If we see none, then what can you do.… 

1000%. 

What good is a discussion without both sides of an argument? It's how we learn and grow. I mean if we all agreed on the same thing and all had the same analysis and assessment of forecast models...there would be no need for discussion...would be boring as hell haha

[Ginx snewx]

58 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

1000%. 

What good is a discussion without both sides of an argument? It's how we learn and grow. I mean if we all agreed on the same thing and all had the same analysis and assessment of forecast models...there would be no need for discussion...would be boring as hell haha

Agree with you on ENSO even the correlation scores are 50/50. EPO is where it's at.

[CoastalWx]

EPO too risky. Give me a +PNA any day. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Visiting you all from the NYC sub.  I’m probably even more worried.  Would love for it to at least feel like late fall here.  After a decade of freakishly warm winters, I must admit, it’s actually starting to get to me a bit.

The cycle will break,  it just might take a few years.

Hopefully we can turn things around later in the month.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Visiting you all from the NYC sub.  I’m probably even more worried.  Would love for it to at least feel like late fall here.  After a decade of freakishly warm winters, I must admit, it’s actually starting to get to me a bit.

Thing is, it’s not even late fall yet. Another 3 weeks or so it will be getting there though.  But even 8 years ago…in the Super Nino of 2016, you guys killed it with the monster blizzard there in the city. That missed most of SNE(Southern CT did well. Here in central CT I got about 10-12 from it. But Once north of here it dropped off dramatically). So shit happens.  

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern looks like garbage into December.

Ridge keeps rebuilding 

[SouthCoastMA]

either way..looking forward to the 60s next few days

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not spouting hyperbole, just don't like what I see heading into December. Feels like the same shit from last few winters. 

 

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Listen, I don’t pretend to know how much snow we’re gonna get.  All I know is that it will snow here in SNE this winter.  
 

Theres like two themes going on… Wolfie seems to be reading these like it’s never going to snow at all this winter.

“Pattern looks unfavorable.”

”It will snow at some point between now and April.”