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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Not calling for just one storm. We will have cold spells, of course, maybe some extended periods ( a week or more) and if they coincide with a good winter storm, that will make it seem like a decent winter. I mean the overall winter looks like it will be warm. If the pattern really sucks and cold spells are of the one or two day order and storms don't coincide, then a lot of people will be (figuratively) jumping off bridges. I won't be one of them. I won't be astonished if everything turns around and we have a slam bang fantastic winter either. It is New England, after all. But the signs are for a warm winter, "warm" being relative to climotology. If we were in Oklahoma City, where my Mom's side of the family hails from, our warm winter would be considered almost apocalyptically snowy and cold.

Hear ya.  It’s all relative.  Well, look at the hurricane season forecast.  All signs pointed to a very active year, and the forecast was for just that. What a flop that official forecast was.  Ya just don’t know, and I guess that’s still the fun part.  Take care J Paul.   

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26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hear ya.  It’s all relative.  Well, look at the hurricane season forecast.  All signs pointed to a very active year, and the forecast was for just that. What a flop that official forecast was.  Ya just don’t know, and I guess that’s still the fun part.  Take care J Paul.   

Absolutely. But when people in the US think of this year's slow hurricane season, they'll be massively influenced by the impact of Helene and Milton. A lot of folks will think of it as the hurricane season from hell. As they say, location, location, location, and it's all about the sensible weather. Thank goodness we measure the "success" of a winter by big snowstorms. We can enjoy watching them from the comfort of our homes, or rage about them as we take two hours to travel five miles on the highway, but most of us will never have the experience of having our homes wiped away and our livelihoods destroyed.

Enjoy the weather Wolf, its the only weather we have. And its a lot more fun than politics!

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44 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Absolutely. But when people in the US think of this year's slow hurricane season, they'll be massively influenced by the impact of Helene and Milton. A lot of folks will think of it as the hurricane season from hell. As they say, location, location, location, and it's all about the sensible weather. Thank goodness we measure the "success" of a winter by big snowstorms. We can enjoy watching them from the comfort of our homes, or rage about them as we take two hours to travel five miles on the highway, but most of us will never have the experience of having our homes wiped away and our livelihoods destroyed.

Enjoy the weather Wolf, its the only weather we have. And its a lot more fun than politics!

I enjoy the climate where I live now:
Small tornados   (I'm quite happy seeing bigger ones only on media.)
Small earthquakes
Small hurricanes
Big snowstorms
:D

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48 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Absolutely. But when people in the US think of this year's slow hurricane season, they'll be massively influenced by the impact of Helene and Milton. A lot of folks will think of it as the hurricane season from hell. As they say, location, location, location, and it's all about the sensible weather. Thank goodness we measure the "success" of a winter by big snowstorms. We can enjoy watching them from the comfort of our homes, or rage about them as we take two hours to travel five miles on the highway, but most of us will never have the experience of having our homes wiped away and our livelihoods destroyed.

Enjoy the weather Wolf, its the only weather we have. And its a lot more fun than politics!

And look what happened with this years hurricane season. They first called for a very active season, then when we got to around August they brought that number down as everything just slowed down to a halt... Now Patty has formed way out near the Azores, and the next dorm is just about to form down in the Caribbean. That would bring us to 17 storms. Not bad to end off the hurricane season. 

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4 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Absolutely. But when people in the US think of this year's slow hurricane season, they'll be massively influenced by the impact of Helene and Milton. A lot of folks will think of it as the hurricane season from hell. As they say, location, location, location, and it's all about the sensible weather. Thank goodness we measure the "success" of a winter by big snowstorms. We can enjoy watching them from the comfort of our homes, or rage about them as we take two hours to travel five miles on the highway, but most of us will never have the experience of having our homes wiped away and our livelihoods destroyed.

Enjoy the weather Wolf, its the only weather we have. And its a lot more fun than politics!

Yeah, there's a reason I moved to New England versus any other region of the country. Although it's fair to say that snow, ice, and cold weather can be devastating under specific circumstances (such as losing power when the temperature is well below 0F - but even that's much more likely to happen in the Northern states in the center of the country like Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc. as they get the most frigid of temperatures), I'll take my chances with the cold over constant threat of tornadoes, hurricanes, and bad earthquakes.

I can see why people are fascinated with bad tornadoes and hurricanes, but all I see is the devastation - the people who lost their lives, their homes, their jobs, family members, friends. etc. A 'boring' hurricane season is a good thing. Which this one wasn't for people in the Southeast, but was for us.

I know that this puts me at odds with people here who the fascination takes over so I try to post sparingly to not be arguing with people all of the time. :mellow:

Come winter, though, I'll be hoping for the big winter storms that everyone else is here and will maybe fit in a little more. :lol:

Speaking of politics, that's another thing, much prefer the politics up here. My former state often makes national news with its embarrassing politicians and the nonsense they are up to. It's a sad place for the worst of the worst to rise up and try to gain attention.

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Until the index significantly change the GFS operational likely to keep flopping right back to warm looks …obliterating those.  

Probably gonna get periodic inserts of cold just good for upslope and maybe snowmaking but you’re gonna get warm blasted two or three days later and it won’t make it worth it

If the index change then fine otherwise check back in after Thanksgiving giggity

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Until the index significantly change the GFS operational likely to keep flopping right back to warm looks …obliterating those.  

Probably gonna get periodic inserts of cold just good for upslope and maybe snowmaking but you’re gonna get warm blasted two or three days later and it won’t make it worth it

If the index change then fine otherwise check back in after Thanksgiving giggity

After thanksgiving is when it usually starts to happen anyways, more often than not. So we good. 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Until the index significantly change the GFS operational likely to keep flopping right back to warm looks …obliterating those.  

Probably gonna get periodic inserts of cold just good for upslope and maybe snowmaking but you’re gonna get warm blasted two or three days later and it won’t make it worth it

If the index change then fine otherwise check back in after Thanksgiving giggity

Exactly, we are pretty locked into eastern ridging for the foreseeable future. Sure, we can get a few cool shots in from various sources here or there, but we need wholesale teleconnection changes for real progress away from the hostile rossby wave configuration we have. Subseasonal indicators are pretty iron-clad right now across the upper latitudes, and tropical forcings are not helping.

A nicely timed recurving typhoon could be the trigger for changes sooner than modeled. Until that happens, or other forcings flip key indices, semi-consistent bursts of winter will be confined to the ADK High Peaks region, the Green Mountain spine, the Whites through Pittsburg, and the Mahoosucs/Aroostock county

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36F in the village and still breezy out of the NW.

No inversion developing yet, still mixing.

19F at the top of the Quad… a fully mixed atmosphere is usually a 15 degree difference/decrease between home and the free air up at the top lift terminals. Checks out tonight as a 17 degree difference, very well mixed.

The gradient seems steeper than normal in the mid-slope. From 2,600ft to 3,600ft it goes from 27F to 19F. Secondary push of CAA from 925-850mb?

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1 minute ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Exactly, we are pretty locked into eastern ridging for the foreseeable future. Sure, we can get a few cool shots in from various sources here or there, but we need wholesale teleconnection changes for real progress away from the hostile rossby wave configuration we have. 

A nicely timed recurving typhoon could be the trigger for changes sooner than modeled. Until that happens, or other forcings flip key indices, semi-consistent bursts of winter will be confined to the Green Mountain spine, the Whites through Pittsburgh, and the Mahoosucs/Aroostock county

We love Aroostook county!  Bring it. 

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The good news is that lack of solar strength, mixing, etc won’t maximize the SFC temperatures like can be done at other times of year with this H5 pattern.

Low level cold undercutting the mid-level warmth and CAD from the Maritimes can lead to cooler surface temps than the long wave pattern suggests.

Overall though, the EPS/Euro Ensemble has been showing 50-members of upper level ridging in the means.  Pretty stable/steady pattern.  Persistence.

Monday…

IMG_1247.jpeg.650148fe89e07920f913ee62049146dc.jpeg

10+ days from now…

IMG_1249.jpeg.74838f782e4af6a08e6930f088a91cfa.jpeg

15 days from now…

IMG_1248.jpeg.30571857c6bcf115c9a3cca9667cc912.jpeg

 

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The good news is that lack of solar strength, mixing, etc won’t maximize the temperatures like can be done at other times of year with this H5 pattern.

Low level cold undercutting the mid-level warmth and CAD from the Maritimes can lead to cooler surface temps than the long wave pattern suggests.

Overall though, the EPS/Euro Ensemble has been 50-members of upper level ridging in the means.  Pretty stable/steady pattern.

Monday…

IMG_1247.jpeg.650148fe89e07920f913ee62049146dc.jpeg

10+ days from now…

IMG_1249.jpeg.74838f782e4af6a08e6930f088a91cfa.jpeg

15 days from now…

IMG_1248.jpeg.30571857c6bcf115c9a3cca9667cc912.jpeg

 

The hemispheric rossby wave evolution to maintain this pattern is quite remarkable. Happy to get this out of the way in November, myself and many others would be quite angsty if this weirdly persistent pattern showed up in January.

The consistent deposit of vorticity back into the western trough really drives the persistence of our downstream ridge.  Very impressive how the wave structure strikes the perfect balance between trough attenuation on the low-end of vort advection, and wave breaking for high-end advection. Instead we get stasis. An impressive traffic jam of blocking downstream also slows propagation just in time for vorticity to go reinforce the pattern along the wave axes.

Long story short, this ridge doesn’t want to go easy. Again, hoping for a trigger from the W-Pac to reshuffle the deck. 

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6 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

The hemispheric rossby wave evolution to maintain this pattern is quite remarkable. Happy to get this out of the way in November, myself and many others would be quite angsty if this weirdly persistent pattern showed up in January.

The consistent deposit of vorticity back into the western trough really drives the persistence and our downstream ridge.  Very impressive how the wave structure strikes the perfect balance between trough attenuation on the low-end of vort advection, and wave breaking for high-end advection. Instead we get stasis. An impressive traffic jam of blocking downstream also slows propagation just in time for vorticity to go reinforce the pattern along the wave axes.

Long story short, this ridge doesn’t want to go easy.

Great explanation Bulldog.  Ya…it’s been sunny, dry and gorgeous for almost 11 weeks now.  Incredibly stable pattern for sure.  But as you say…it’s a really good time for this to happen. In fact, let it persist for another 3-4 weeks to be honest.  By that point, we’ll be pushing 14-15 weeks(almost 4 months) of the same pattern.  I mean how much longer can that last? Something’s gotta give..and we might be right at a good point when it does…? 

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