Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[SnoSki14]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bring back the 70s.

Should give more ammo to the fires. Let it burn

[radarman]

8 hours ago, tunafish said:

Several stations had >9.00" in August and then <1.00" Sept/Oct combined. That is wild.

And basically normal in the means

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

And basically normal in the means

Correct. What is forgotten many times, is that the extremes are what produce the normals.   It was extremely wet for a long while..it’s evening itself out now with this current dry period, and as you said it’s basically normal now in the means. 

[radarman]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Correct. What is forgotten many times, is that the extremes are what produce the normals.   It was extremely wet for a long while..it’s evening itself out now with this current dry period, and as you said it’s basically normal now in the means. 

That was a tongue in cheek comment but it does argue for going beyond averaging.  I'm still waiting for daily integrated 5 min temp analysis rather than (max+min)/2... guess I'll keep waiting.

[Hailstoned]

46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Correct. What is forgotten many times, is that the extremes are what produce the normals.   It was extremely wet for a long while..it’s evening itself out now with this current dry period, and as you said it’s basically normal now in the means. 

Nice try.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

Nice try.

It’s fact. Not a try.  Did you expect it to stay as wet as we’ve been the last year plus? It was bound to dry out..and in a big way, and here we are. 

[Boston Bulldog]

I would caution against getting excited about the long range deterministic models showing some “winter-like” storm activity. Ensembles are still very hostile with the ridging through mid month, maybe we can squeeze out a cool shot in about 10 days on the backside of the troughing anomaly over the Maritimes.

I would watch for some cutters after mid month with hints of a -PNA showing up. Honestly that’s progress toward a cool season pattern, considering where we are starting this month. 

[tamarack]

18 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

wasn't being serious  

edit: it was a joke from several years ago when some trees started to bud in early Feb when we had that massive warm spell. Also think it happened in 2007 before that March cold blast

More likely it was 2017.  In 2007 the pattern changed from mild to cold in mid January, and February here was 7.2° BN.  Then came the record cold blast in March.
January 2017 had a late month 11-day run that averaged 15° AN, then late February saw temps in the mid 50s, probably 60s down your way.

Yesterday's 69/50 was 20° AN, but no match for 11/6/22, 69/58 for +26.  Cloudy 40s today; hoped the cool down would get the deer moving, but none seen here.

[weatherwiz]

I wish the 70’s to around 80 lasted one more day. I’d watch the Bruins outside today. Everytime there is a chance to watch hockey outside the weather sucks. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Another shot at mid 70's next week, with 3 or 4 days above 70. If this pattern keeps up we'll easily surpass 2022 and probably 2011. Not good for winter lovers as both 2011-12 and 2022-23 were remarkably warm throughout. The lack of interest in the winter thread seems to confirm this. 

No matter, a well placed coldish spell and a good storm is more than possible over the span of the next three or four months.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish the 70’s to around 80 lasted one more day. I’d watch the Bruins outside today. Everytime there is a chance to watch hockey outside the weather sucks. 

All we’ve had has been nice weather for the last 10 plus weeks Paul.  Where have you been.  Today is gorgeous… just not 78 degrees. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Another shot at mid 70's next week, with 3 or 4 days above 70. If this pattern keeps up we'll easily surpass 2022 and probably 2011. Not good for winter lovers as both 2011-12 and 2022-23 were remarkably warm throughout. The lack of interest in the winter thread seems to confirm this. 

No matter, a well placed coldish spell and a good storm is more than possible over the span of the next three or four months.

Lol..so you’re calling for maybe one winter storm this winter?  We’ll see how that works out come April 1st.  As good a call as any on 11/2.   11-12 only had one winter storm… if we don’t count the Octobomb.  

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All we’ve had has been nice weather for the last 10 plus weeks Paul.  Where have you been.  Today is gorgeous… just not 78 degrees. 

Not when the Bruins have been playing 

[alex]

Yesterday summer, today flurries

[NorEastermass128]

My brain is still in summer mode. If we didn’t see a flake all winter, I wouldn’t care at this point. 

[CoastalWx]

52 and cloudy. Bring back 80.

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

My brain is still in summer mode. If we didn’t see a flake all winter, I wouldn’t care at this point. 

That's more likely than not

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's more likely than not

To not see a flake? Beer and psychedelics? Hands felt like two balloons?

[dendrite]

Maybe no measurable for Ray this year or will he add up his 6hr traces on the snowboard?

[Damage In Tolland]

About 2 miles NNE of me 

https://x.com/tndispatch/status/1852741885078700265?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[jbenedet]

Overall a very average feel to the air and look to the sky. But with the sun breaking, we will have another AN day incoming. +2. “Behind the front” in the sea coast area.

[jbenedet]

The GFS op is going to crush snow weenie souls again this season. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Fire in Northampton is over 40 acres now.

No houses in danger but our friends had to cancel a gathering tomorrow afternoon because their street is fire staging area and the smoke is horrible.

https://www.wwlp.com/news/local-news/hampshire-county/brush-fire-expands-to-40-acres-in-northampton-conservation-area/amp/

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I would caution against getting excited about the long range deterministic models showing some “winter-like” storm activity. Ensembles are still very hostile with the ridging through mid month, maybe we can squeeze out a cool shot in about 10 days on the backside of the troughing anomaly over the Maritimes.

I would watch for some cutters after mid month with hints of a -PNA showing up. Honestly that’s progress toward a cool season pattern, considering where we are starting this month. 

it looks record warm this month, no one is expecting any "winter like" storm activity 

[tamarack]

28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Overall a very average feel to the air and look to the sky. But with the sun breaking, we will have another AN day incoming. +2. “Behind the front” in the sea coast area.

Only due to yesterday's leftovers here.  High will be 50 as that was the temp at my obs time at 9 last evening.  Morning low was near 40 but should be well down into the 30s by 9 tonight.  Clouds are hanging on though I expect them to fade away later this afternoon.

[Damage In Tolland]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

About 2 miles NNE of me 

https://x.com/tndispatch/status/1852741885078700265?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

And another one! LFG

https://x.com/tollandalert/status/1852757557347037481?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

My brain is still in summer mode. If we didn’t see a flake all winter, I wouldn’t care at this point. 

You'll likely get your wish.

[rimetree]

Sun trying to break through just as the horizon is dimming. May only reach 53 for the high. Perfect November day to do some yard work.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

52 and cloudy. Bring back 80.

funny was thinkin about this during disk this morning.   back in the 1980s or 90s ... a 58 on nov 2 was a huge lucky bonus yummy warm balm bliss day. 

climate fixing i guess

[J Paul Gordon]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..so you’re calling for maybe one winter storm this winter?  We’ll see how that works out come April 1st.  As good a call as any on 11/2.   11-12 only had one winter storm… if we don’t count the Octobomb.  

Not calling for just one storm. We will have cold spells, of course, maybe some extended periods ( a week or more) and if they coincide with a good winter storm, that will make it seem like a decent winter. I mean the overall winter looks like it will be warm. If the pattern really sucks and cold spells are of the one or two day order and storms don't coincide, then a lot of people will be (figuratively) jumping off bridges. I won't be one of them. I won't be astonished if everything turns around and we have a slam bang fantastic winter either. It is New England, after all. But the signs are for a warm winter, "warm" being relative to climotology. If we were in Oklahoma City, where my Mom's side of the family hails from, our warm winter would be considered almost apocalyptically snowy and cold.