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November 2024 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for Nov 2024

 

FORECASTER _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Tom ________________________________ +4.6 _ +4.8 _ +4.7 __ +3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.7 __ +1.2 _ +0.5 _ -0.6

RJay _______________________________ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0

Don Sutherland _____________________+3.9 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.9 _ +4.7 _ +4.6 __ +2.1 _ +0.7 _ +0.7

Roger Smith ________________________ +3.4 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.7

wxallannj ___________________________ +3.4 _ +2.9 _ +2.7 __ +2.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.3 __ +0.8 _ -0.3 _ +0.8

___ Consensus ____________________ +3.4 _ +3.0 _ +3.7 __ +3.0 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 __ +1.1 __+0.4 _ +0.5

so_whats_happening _______________ +3.3 _ +3.1 _ +3.7 __ +3.9 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.4 _ +0.4 _ +0.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________________ +2.6 _ +2.7 _ +2.7 __ +2.9 _ +2.3 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.3 _ +0.4

Scotty Lightning ____________________ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

wxdude64 __________________________ +1.7 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.6 ___ -0.4 _ -0.2 _ -0.4

RodneyS ____________________________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.3 __ +2.9 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ___ -0.3 _ -1.5 _ +0.6

-----------------

___ Persistence (Oct 2024) __________+2.2 _ +3.0 _ +1.7 __ +5.7 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ___ +8.0 _ +7.1 _ +0.2

============================================

high and low forecasts are color coded ... Normal is lower than all forecasts for first six locations.

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Anomalies and projections:

_______________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(1-14 Nov anom) _____+7.4 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ +8.0 _+9.2 _+11.3 __-4.1 _ -4.3 _ +1.2

(p anom 1-30 Nov) ___+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _+5.5 _+6.5 __-1.5 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

 

(final anom 1-30 Nov)_+5.3 _ +3.4 _ +4.2 ___ +4.9 _+5.4 _+7.3 __-1.2 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

 

(Nov 15) _ A very warm start in central and eastern regions, cool in western states and n/n PAC NW. 

Second half of NOV looks set to modify anomalies a little so projections are all closer to average. West will be rather warm at times and may end closer to normal. 

(Nov 25) _ adj NYC and BOS p anom (were 3.5, 2.5)

(Nov 30) _ adj NYC to 3.5 and BOS to 4.0 (were 3.0) ... PHX -1.0 (was -2.0) and SEA -0.5 (was 0.0)

Snowfall contest will be linked to Dec contest, DEN already has a snowfall of 20.0"

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for Nov 2024

based on data posted above 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTALS

 

Roger Smith ___________________ 65 _ 94 _ 96 _ 255 _ 72 _ 54 _ 29 _ 155 _410 _ 86 _ 96 _ 96 _ 278 ___688

Tom ___________________________ 89 _ 72 _ 90 _ 251 _ 64 _ 64 _ 51 _ 179 _ 430 _ 52 _ 70 _ 98 _ 220 ___ 650

Don Sutherland ________________75 _ 92 _ 66 _ 233 _ 80 _ 90 _ 69 _ 239 _472 _ 34 _ 66 _ 76 _ 176 ___648

___ Consensus _______________ 65 _ 92 _ 90 _ 247 _ 62 _ 48 _ 25 _ 135 _ 382 _ 54 _ 72 _ 80 _ 206 ___ 588

so_whats_happening __________ 63 _ 94 _ 90 _ 247 _ 80 _ 36 _ 16 _ 132 __379 _ 48 _ 72 _ 86 _ 206 ___585

wxallannj ______________________ 65 _ 90 _ 70 _ 225 _ 46 _ 54 _ 23 _ 123 _ 348 _60 _ 86 _ 74 _ 220 ___ 568

RJay ___________________________77 _ 68 _ 74 _ 219 _ 62 _ 56 _ 47 _ 165 __ 384 _ 36 _ 20 _ 70 _ 126 ___ 510

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 49 _ 86 _ 70 _ 205 _ 60 _ 42 _ 18 _ 120 __325 _ 38 _ 54 _ 82 _ 174 ___ 499

RodneyS _______________________ 19 _ 60 _ 42 _ 121 _ 60 _ 36 _ 27 _ 123 __244 _ 82 _ 90 _ 78 _ 250 ___ 494

wxdude64 _____________________ 31 _ 60 _ 38 _ 129 _ 26 _ 10 _ 06 _ 042 _ 171 _ 84 _ 84 _ 98 _ 266 ___ 437

Scotty Lightning _______________ 47 _ 72 _ 46 _ 165 _ 22 _ 26 _ 20 _ 068 _ 233 _ 56 _ 60 _ 80 _ 196 ___ 429

 

___ Normal ____________________ 00 _ 32 _ 16 _ 048 _ 02 _ 00 _ 00 _ 002 _050 _ 76 _ 80 _90 _246 ___ 296

 

-----------------

___ Persistence (Oct 2024) _____41 _ 92 _ 50 _ 183 _ 84 _ 64 _ 73 _ 221 _ 404 _ 00 _ 00 _ 86 _ 086 ___ 490

=========================

Extreme Forecast Report

DCA _ Tom presently in line for a win (high forecast)

NYC, BOS _ presently not projected to be extreme forecast results.

ORD _ Don S and so_whats_happening likely to share a win (high forecasts)

ATL, IAH _ Don S also likely to win two (high forecasts)

DEN _ Roger S on track to win (low forecast)

PHX _ at -1.0 will be a win for Roger S and a loss for RodneyS (low forecast)

SEA _ presently a loss for Roger S and a shared win for Tom and wxdude64.

 

_ snowfall contest is added to DEC contest, seeking advice on 2025 contest plans, we could use a larger field (as always) and I continue to believe a different host might lead to greater participation. I could continue to score contest if desired (not presently in perfect health and concerned at age 75 for guaranteed availability)

 

 

Normal __________________522 _484 _614 __1620 __440 _528 _464 __1432 _3052 _ 398 _388 _822 __ 1608 ___4660

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Roger Smith

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<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Nov 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

 

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH_____cent __ c/e ____ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTALS

 

wxallannj _______________819 _782 _830 __2431 __ 613 _806 _675 __2094 _4525 __657 _715 _824 _2196 ___ 6721

___ Consensus ________787 _786 _846 __2419 __ 613_766 _667 __ 2046 _4465 __576 _671_784 _2031 ___6496

DonSutherland1 ________795 _822 _840 __2457 __ 653 _728 _623 __2004 _ 4461 __666 _694 _656 _2016 ___6477

RJay ___________________ 805 _747 _744 __ 2296 __ 665 _775 _657 __2097 _4393 __579 _619 _697 __1895 ___ 6288

so_whats_happening ___757 _766 _840 __2363 __ 622 _ 718 _590 __1930 _4293 __ 583 _597 _748 __1928 ___ 6221

Scotty Lightning ________742 _679 _739 __2160 __ 459 _805 _733 __1997 _ 4157 __ 544 _593 _839 __1976 ___ 6133

Roger Smith ____________717 _702 _632 __ 2051 __ 633 _773 _579 __ 1985 _ 4036 __610 _765 _714 __2089 ___ 6125

Tom ____________________765 _692 _788 __2245 __ 514 _732 _647 __ 1893 _ 4138 __ 514 _605 _846 __1965 ___ 6103

hudsonvalley21 _________697 _658 _714 __2069 __ 617 _762 _704 __ 2083 _4152 __ 594 _581 _766 __ 1941 ___ 6093

RodneyS _______________ 571 _744 _782 __2097 __ 476 _534 _645 __ 1655 _ 3752 __716 _529 _846 __ 2091 ___5843

rainsucks (9/11) ________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __ 1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 __ 1584 ___5409 (6611)

wxdude64 _____________ 494 _577 _701 __ 1772 __ 468 _489 _529 __ 1486 _ 3258 __549 _569 _825 __ 1943 ___5201 

BKViking (9/11) _________640 _588 _652 __1880 __ 422 _601 _539 __ 1562 _ 3442 __447 _ 531 _619 __ 1597 ___5039 (6159)

---------------------  

Persistence ____________ 777 _746 _774 __2297 __523 _758 _651 __1932 _4229 _ 260 _609 _750 __1629 ___ 5858

Normal _________________522 _516 _630 __ 1668 __442 _528 _464 __1434 _3102 _ 474 _468 _912 __ 1854 ___4956

Stormchaser Chuck (7/11)_424_438_472__1334 __397 _388 _352 __1137 __2471 __322 _440 _416 __ 1178 ___ 3649 (5734)

Rhino16 (4/11) __________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (5924)

George BM (1/11) ________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (6490)

pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal.

Persistence stayed well above Normal and is advancing into lower portion of forecaster group. 

-----------------------------------

 

Best forecasts

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ____1 _May

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 __ 0 

DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 2*____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____3 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 ____ 1 

RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *___2 _ Mar, Sep

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____1 *___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 

Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ___ 0

Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 3^ __ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 4^ ___ 1* ____4 ____ 4 _Apr,Jul,Aug,Nov

Tom _____________________ 1 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 1 *____0 _____0  

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ____ 2**__1* ___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 _____0 

rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____1 _ Feb 

RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 2*___ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _ Jan

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*____0 ____ 0 

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 

Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1* ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 1 _ Oct

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1  ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun

George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____0

July NYC five tied, added to table ^  ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. 

RodneyS also DEN in July 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 69 qualified (49 for warmest, 20 for coldest) ...

... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1, Nov 4-4

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct_ Nov __ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ______________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5

Scotty Lightning ______ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 ___ 9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0

Roger Smith ___________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-1 ____ 9-3 ___ 7.5 - 3.0

RodneyS ______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1* _ 0-1 ___ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 1.5

___ Normal ____________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0

hudsonvalley21 _______ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 0-0 ___ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0

Stormchaser Chuck ___ 0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 _0-0 ___ 6-3 ___ 5.0- 3.0

Rhino16 ________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0

DonSutherland1 ________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0_3*-0 __ 8-0 ___ 7.0 - 0

wxallannj _______________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0

wxdude64 _____________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 * _ 1*-0 __5-1 ___ 4.5 - 0.5

RJay ___________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 ___ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0

Tom ____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0 __ 2-0 __ 1.5 _ 0.0

so_whats_happening ___0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 1*-0___ 1-0 __ 0.5 _ 0.0

BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 __ 0.0 _ 1.0

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Four Seasons Contest __ Final Report

 

Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 

 

___________________________ Winter ___________ Spring __________Summer _________________ Autumn _______________ Annual

FORECASTER _______TOTAL_Points __ TOTAL_Points _ TOTAL_Points _ S_ O _N __ TOTAL_Points _ Contest TOTAL

 

wxallannj ______________ 1736 __10 ____ 2224 __10 ____1706 ___6t ____ 602 481 568_ 1651 __ 7 ______ 32

DonSutherland 1 ________1524 __ 7 ____ 2010 ___3 ____1694 ___ 4 _____588 495 648_ 1731 __10 _____ 24 

Roger Smith _____________ 793 __ 1 _____2124 ___6 ____1954 __ 10 _____530 330 688_ 1548 __3 _____ 20

___ Consensus __________1408 __3.3 ___2088 __5.5 ___1758 ___ 6.2 ___ 594 450 588_ 1632__4.8_____19.8

so_whats_happening ___1487 __ 5 _____1946____2 ____1706 ___ 6t ____ 516 425 585_ 1526 __ 2 ______ 15

RJay ___________________ 1391 __ 3 _____2142 ___7 ____1580 ___ 1 ______664 468 510_ 1642 __ 5 ______ 16

Tom ____________________1038 __ 1 _____ 2050 ___5 ___ 1682 ___ 3 _____ 556 437 650_ 1643 __ 6 ______ 15

hudsonvalley21 _________1450 __ 4 ____ 1918 ___ 1 ____ 1568 ___ 1 ______576 524 499_ 1599 __ 4 ______ 10

Scotty Lightning ________1184 __ 1 ______1900 ___1 ____ 1906 ___ 7 _____ 572 470 429_ 1471 ___ 1 ______ 10

RodneyS _______________ 1497 __ 6 _____1700 ___1 ____ 1550 ___ 1 _____ 488 540 494_ 1522 ___ 1 _______9

rainsucks _______________ 1111 ___ 1 _____2040 __ 4 ____1622 ___ 2 _____ 636 --- ---____ 636 __ 0 _______7

BKViking ________________ 1336 __ 2 ____1921 ___ 1 _____1130 ___ 1 _____ 558 428 --- ___ 986 __ 1 _______5

wxdude64 _______________1098 __ 1 ____ 1722 ___ 1 ____ 1412 ____1 _____ 442 296 437 _ 1175 __ 1 _______4

___ Normal ______________ 1002 __ 1 ____ 1474 ___ 1 ____ 1470 ___ 1 _____ 526 294 296 _ 1116 __ 1 _______4

Stormchaser Chuck ______792 ___ 1 _____708 ___ 0 ____ 1484 ____ 1 _____--- 665 --- ___665 __ 0 ______2

Rhino16 __________________ 747 ___ 1 _____672 ____ 0 ____ 739 ___ 0 _____ --- --- --- _____--- __ 0 ______ 1

***= = ====================== [[[]]] ====================== = =***

Persistence ______________ 972 ___ 1 ____ 1818 ___ 1 _____1592 ____ 1 _____ 706 602 490_1798 __10 _____ 13

____________________________

GeorgeBm 590 in July only entry not qualified for contest points.

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