November 2024 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Nov 1st 

 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+3.3    +3.1   +3.7     +3.9    +2   +1.6      +1.4     +.4     +.2

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.6    +2.7   +2.7     +2.9   +2.3   +1.8     +1.9     +1.3   +0.4

[Rjay]

DCA: + 4.0

 

NYC: + 5.0

 

BOS: + 5.5

 

ORD: + 3.0

 

ATL: + 3.0

 

IAH: + 3.5

 

DEN: + 2.0

 

PHX: + 3.0

 

SEA: + 1.0

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+3.4   +2.9   +2.7     +2.2   +2.9   +2.3   +0.8     -0.3   +0.8

[Tom]

DCA: + 4.6

NYC: + 4.8

BOS: + 4.7

ORD: + 3.1

ATL: + 3.4

IAH: + 3.7

DEN: + 1.2

PHX: + 0.5

SEA: -0.6

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.9     3.0       2.5       3.9      4.7     4.6      2.1       0.7      0.7

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 

2.5       2.0        1.5           1.0        1.5     2.0         1.0        1.0        0.5

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.1        1.4       1.3       2.9      2.0     2.5     -0.3    -1.5      0.6

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.7

NYC:  +1.4

BOS:  +1.1

ORD:  +1.2

ATL:  +0.7

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  -0.4

PHX:  -0.2

SEA:  -0.4

[Roger Smith]

+3.4 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.7

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for Nov 2024

 

FORECASTER _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Tom ________________________________ +4.6 _ +4.8 _ +4.7 __ +3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.7 __ +1.2 _ +0.5 _ -0.6

RJay _______________________________ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0

Don Sutherland _____________________+3.9 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.9 _ +4.7 _ +4.6 __ +2.1 _ +0.7 _ +0.7

Roger Smith ________________________ +3.4 _ +3.7 _ +4.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.6 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ -0.7

wxallannj ___________________________ +3.4 _ +2.9 _ +2.7 __ +2.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.3 __ +0.8 _ -0.3 _ +0.8

___ Consensus ____________________ +3.4 _ +3.0 _ +3.7 __ +3.0 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 __ +1.1 __+0.4 _ +0.5

so_whats_happening _______________ +3.3 _ +3.1 _ +3.7 __ +3.9 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.4 _ +0.4 _ +0.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________________ +2.6 _ +2.7 _ +2.7 __ +2.9 _ +2.3 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.3 _ +0.4

Scotty Lightning ____________________ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

wxdude64 __________________________ +1.7 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.6 ___ -0.4 _ -0.2 _ -0.4

RodneyS ____________________________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.3 __ +2.9 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ___ -0.3 _ -1.5 _ +0.6

-----------------

___ Persistence (Oct 2024) __________+2.2 _ +3.0 _ +1.7 __ +5.7 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ___ +8.0 _ +7.1 _ +0.2

============================================

high and low forecasts are color coded ... Normal is lower than all forecasts for first six locations.

 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and projections:

_______________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(1-14 Nov anom) _____+7.4 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ +8.0 _+9.2 _+11.3 __-4.1 _ -4.3 _ +1.2

(p anom 1-30 Nov) ___+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 ___ +5.0 _+5.5 _+6.5 __-1.5 _ -2.0 __ 0.0

 

(Nov 15) _ A very warm start in central and eastern regions, cool in western states and n/n PAC NW. 

Second half of NOV looks set to modify anomalies a little so projections are all closer to average. West will be rather warm at times and may end closer to normal. 

Snowfall contest will be linked to Dec contest, DEN already has a snowfall of 20.0"

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Preliminary scoring for Nov 2024

based on latest projections posted above 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTALS

Tom ___________________________ 98 _ 74 _ 56 _ 228 _ 62 _ 63 _ 59 _ 184 _ 412 _ 46 _ 50 _ 12 _ 108 ___ 520

RJay __________________________ 90 _ 70 _ 40 _ 200 _ 60 _ 55 _ 25 _ 140 _ 340 _ 30 _ 00 _ 80 _ 110 ___ 450

Don Sutherland ________________88 _ 90 _100 _ 278 _ 78 _ 89 _ 77 _ 244 _ 522 _ 28 _ 46 _ 86 _ 160 ___ 682

Roger Smith ___________________ 78 _ 96 _ 70 _ 244 _ 70 _ 53 _ 37 _ 160 _ 404 _ 80 _ 84 _ 86 _ 250 ___ 654

wxallannj ______________________ 78 _ 88 _ 96 _ 262 _ 44 _ 53 _ 31 _ 128 _ 390 _ 54 _ 66 _ 84 _ 204 ___ 594

___ Consensus _______________ 78 _ 90 _ 76 _ 244 _ 60 _ 47 _ 33 _ 140 _ 384 _ 48 _ 52 _ 90 _ 190 ___ 574

so_whats_happening __________ 76 _ 92 _ 76 _ 244 _ 78 _ 35 _ 17 _ 130 __ 374 _ 42 _ 52 _ 96 _ 190 ___ 564

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 62 _ 84 _ 96 _ 240 _ 58 _ 41 _ 21 _ 120 __ 360 _ 32 _ 34 _ 92 _ 158 ___ 518

Scotty Lightning _______________ 60 _ 70 _ 80 _ 210 _ 20 _ 25 _ 25 _ 070 _ 280 _ 50 _ 40 _ 90 _ 180 ___ 460

wxdude64 _____________________ 44 _ 58 _ 72 _ 174 _ 24 _ 09 _ 06 _ 039 _ 213 _ 78 _ 64 _ 92 _ 234 ___ 447

RodneyS _______________________ 32 _ 58 _ 76 _ 166 _ 58 _ 35 _ 35 _ 128 _ 294 _ 76 _ 90 _ 88 _ 254 ___ 548

-----------------

___ Persistence (Oct 2024) _____54 _ 90 _ 84 _ 228 _ 86 _ 63 _ 81 _ 230 _ 458 _ 00 _ 00 _ 96 _ 096 ___ 554

=========================

Extreme Forecast Report

DCA _ Tom presently in line for a win (high forecast)

NYC, BOS _ presently not projected to be extreme forecast results.

ORD _ Don S and so_whats_happening likely to share a win (high forecasts)

ATL, IAH _ Don S also likely to win two (high forecasts)

DEN _ Roger S on track to win (low forecast)

PHX _ RodneyS on track to win (low forecast)

SEA _ presently not projected to be an extreme forecast.

 

_ annual update will follow near end of NOV ... above scoring will be adjusted as needed.

_ snowfall contest will be added to DEC contest, seeking advice on 2025 contest plans, we could use a larger field (as always) and I continue to believe a different host might lead to greater participation. I could continue to score contest if desired (not presently in perfect health and concerned at age 75 for guaranteed availability)