November 2024

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be very warm days. Some locations could challenge or break records on Wednesday. It will turn somewhat cooler for Thursday and Friday, but both days will still be unseasonably warm. There is growing model support for at least some rain to affect the region late in the weekend.

Today is Philadelphia's 37th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 37 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -11.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.154 today.

 

[forkyfork]

the wetter models take raphael nne through the east while the drier ones dissipate it in the western gulf

[bluewave]

The next few weeks will be a good test to see if the September and October record dry pattern was just a blip or the start of an extended dry pattern. Notice the record 500 mb ridge over the CONUS to our west blocking all the rainfall from reaching us. Almost like a rain shadow east of a mountain ridge. The forecast next few weeks is for a trough to return to the Plains. If some of this moisture can find its way into the East then we can hope the worst of the dry pattern is behind us. But if the Southeast Ridge becomes strong enough and continues the dry pattern then we may have to deal with an extended drought. 
 

 

[gravitylover]

We keep seeing stuck patterns, some just a few weeks but some have been like our recently finished 15 month long wet period. How long will we stay dry? 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The next few weeks will be a good test to see if the September and October record dry pattern was just a blip or the start of an extended dry pattern. Notice the record 500 mb ridge over the CONUS to our west blocking all the rainfall from reaching us. Almost like a rain shadow east of a mountain ridge. The forecast next few weeks is for a trough to return to the Plains. If some of this moisture can find its way into the East then we can hope the worst of the dry pattern is behind us. But if the Southeast Ridge becomes strong enough and continues the dry pattern then we may have to deal with an extended drought. 
 

 

That’s a real good question. It’s clear that by mid-month the SE ridge/WAR is going to pop, then it becomes a question of how strong, which is going to depend on the trough in the west. The +AMO and New Foundland warm pool by itself is supportive of SE ridge/WAR. If the -PNA really dumps into the west then it’s probably more of the same on the east coast (dry) with a stronger downstream ridge

@SnoSki14 @Allsnow And the GFS has begun a full scale cave to the drier Euro suite for Sun/Mon. Watch it turn into nothing more than a few passing showers. “When in drought, forecast drought” 

[donsutherland1]

Dreaming of a White Christmas or "big time cold" in December? Joe Bastardi is suggesting above normal odds.

The problem with that is that he makes similar calls on a regular basis during the first half of November. For example:

There is no forecasting skill from this far out. Any successes are matters of random chance, not skill. Forecasting for specific dates in the distant future is more astrology than meteorology.

The maps are intended to shock and draw attention. A similar posting pattern occurs throughout the winter where severe to extreme maps are posted on a regular basis. For example from last winter (January 18, 2024):

 

The outcome for the first week of February 2024:

And when the severe to extreme ideas don't verify, fresh calls for severe to extreme cold/snow are posted for future periods. Already, he's embracing December cold and snow after previously suggesting a cold second half of November with an above average idea of a white Thanksgiving (September 30th post).

Most here are aware of his track record and forecasting tendencies. New members might not be aware. Thus, this post to alert them to be cautious about Social Media claims with wild maps.

[SACRUS]

 

51 / 50  some fog. Warm up under way.  Mid 70s once the sun breaks through later today, near / low 80s tomorrow, cool to the 70s Thursday and back to the 60s Fri and Sat.  Perhaps some light rain Sun - Mon to break the dry streak.  Overall warmer and dry continuing next week /mid month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

We'll see if the front gets some thump from the tropical remnants or fizzles coming east.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2022)
NYC: 78 (1961)
LGA: 75 (2022)
JFK: 75 (1975)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1933)
NYC: 23 (1879)
LGA: 32 (1951)
JFK: 32 (1965)


Historical:
 

1894 - The famous Election Day snowstorm occurred in Connecticut. As much as a foot of wet snow fell, and the snow and high winds caused great damage to wires and trees. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI. (David Ludlum)

 

1894: A significant snowstorm impacted New England on November 5th through 6th. It formed off the New Jersey coast on the 5th and passed east of Connecticut with rapidly increasing heavy rain, snow, and high winds. The heavy snow and high winds caused significant damage to trees and brought down telegraph poles by the hundreds. As a result, all southern New England's telegraph and telephone services were crippled, and fallen poles and trees delayed railroad trains.

1961 - Strong Santa Ana winds fanned the flames of the Bel Air and Brentwood fires in southern California destroying many homes. At 10 PM the Los Angeles Civic Center reported a temperature of 74 degrees along with a dew point of 5 degrees. On the 6th, Burbank reported a relative humidity of three percent. (The Weather Channel)

1977 - A slow moving storm produced five to nine inch rains across northern Georgia causing the Toccoa Dam to burst. As the earthen dam collapsed the waters rushed through the Toccoa Falls Bible College killing three persons in the dorms. Thirty-eight persons perished at a trailer park along the stream. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Low pressure off the California coast produced stormy weather in the southwestern U.S. Flash flooding stranded 8000 persons in the Death Valley National Park of southern California. Thunder- storms over southern Nevada produced dime size hail and wind gusts to 68 mph around Las Vegas. Unseasonably mild weather in the northeastern U.S. was replaced with snow and gale force winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system produced high winds from the Great Plains to New England, and produced heavy snow in northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Knoxville TN, and reached 80 mph at Pleasant Valley VT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1988: An F1 tornado touched down south of Altoona near Hollidaysburg. Several homes were damaged with roofs torn off and broken windows, numerous trees were toppled, and garages and other outbuildings were destroyed.

1989 - Temperatures warmed into the 80s across much of Texas. Highs of 86 degrees at Abilene, Fort Worth and San Angelo were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Severe thunderstorms moved across southeastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle, producing wind damage and several tornadoes. A tornado struck the Alabama town of Abbeville killing 2 people and injuring 25 (Associated Press).

 

2017: A classic Tornado Debris Signature (TBS) was observed in Washington County, Indiana.

[the_other_guy]

just had the sprinkler on and took an outdoor shower.

Go figure

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dreaming of a White Christmas or "big time cold" in December? Joe Bastardi is suggesting above normal odds.

The problem with that is that he makes similar calls on a regular basis during the first half of November. For example:

There is no forecasting skill from this far out. Any successes are matters of random chance, not skill. Forecasting for specific dates in the distant future is more astrology than meteorology.

The maps are intended to shock and draw attention. A similar posting pattern occurs throughout the winter where severe to extreme maps are posted on a regular basis. For example from last winter (January 18, 2024):

 

The outcome for the first week of February 2024:

And when the severe to extreme ideas don't verify, fresh calls for severe to extreme cold/snow are posted for future periods. Already, he's embracing December cold and snow after previously suggesting a cold second half of November with an above average idea of a white Thanksgiving (September 30th post).

Most here are aware of his track record and forecasting tendencies. New members might not be aware. Thus, this post to alert them to be cautious about Social Media claims with wild maps.

He also went for a disruptive xmas week of travel etc last year due to a pattern change to cold/stormy.  Instead it was warm and damp...the pattern change was almost a full month after that and only lasted about 8-9 days before flipping back to warmth...

[TJW014]

Another beautiful day in store. Already flirting with 70. We'll make a run for 80 tomorrow. Out exploring some less traveled fire roads in the Pine Barrens documenting some rare plants

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

He also went for a disruptive xmas week of travel etc last year due to a pattern change to cold/stormy.  Instead it was warm and damp...the pattern change was almost a full month after that and only lasted about 8-9 days before flipping back to warmth...

Why not reply directly to him on X than post here?  It isn't like he posts on this site.  Seems weak and a puss thing to do to make a post about him here, no matter how bad he has gotten. 

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Why not reply directly to him on X than post here?  It isn't like he posts on this site.  Seems weak and a puss thing to do to make a post about him here, no matter how bad he has gotten. 

I have done that too.   But I was merely responding to Don's post....and while Don is referencing JB in particular his point about social media hype in general is spot on....

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Another beautiful day in store. Already flirting with 70. We'll make a run for 80 tomorrow. Out exploring some less traveled fire roads in the Pine Barrens documenting some rare plants

That soil looks mighty dry!  Terrible.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dreaming of a White Christmas or "big time cold" in December? Joe Bastardi is suggesting above normal odds.

The problem with that is that he makes similar calls on a regular basis during the first half of November. For example:

There is no forecasting skill from this far out. Any successes are matters of random chance, not skill. Forecasting for specific dates in the distant future is more astrology than meteorology.

The maps are intended to shock and draw attention. A similar posting pattern occurs throughout the winter where severe to extreme maps are posted on a regular basis. For example from last winter (January 18, 2024):

 

The outcome for the first week of February 2024:

And when the severe to extreme ideas don't verify, fresh calls for severe to extreme cold/snow are posted for future periods. Already, he's embracing December cold and snow after previously suggesting a cold second half of November with an above average idea of a white Thanksgiving (September 30th post).

Most here are aware of his track record and forecasting tendencies. New members might not be aware. Thus, this post to alert them to be cautious about Social Media claims with wild maps.

I used to really enjoy his enthusiasm 25 years ago when he was at AccuWx.  But, even though I think he’s probably a decent person, he’s really just become like a cantankerous old uncle that refuses to adjust his views to new information.

Given how seldom his hyped-up forecasts verify though, I wonder how he stays in business.  He holds himself out as a consultant, but is he keeping his gig going with weenie subscriptions?

[SnoSki14]

Warm/dry looks locked in. Rain chances dropping fast too

Only thing that changes is we go back to more over the top ridging vs WAR ridge, cooler highs (still AN) & warmer mins due to onshore flow. 

[MJO812]

No sign of any cold weather through 384 on the gfs. Weird.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dreaming of a White Christmas or "big time cold" in December? Joe Bastardi is suggesting above normal odds.

The problem with that is that he makes similar calls on a regular basis during the first half of November. For example:

There is no forecasting skill from this far out. Any successes are matters of random chance, not skill. Forecasting for specific dates in the distant future is more astrology than meteorology.

The maps are intended to shock and draw attention. A similar posting pattern occurs throughout the winter where severe to extreme maps are posted on a regular basis. For example from last winter (January 18, 2024):

 

The outcome for the first week of February 2024:

And when the severe to extreme ideas don't verify, fresh calls for severe to extreme cold/snow are posted for future periods. Already, he's embracing December cold and snow after previously suggesting a cold second half of November with an above average idea of a white Thanksgiving (September 30th post).

Most here are aware of his track record and forecasting tendencies. New members might not be aware. Thus, this post to alert them to be cautious about Social Media claims with wild maps.

He could be right and it still wind up as a crappy winter. 2022, which he cites as the last time this happened, has been bandied as a possible analog to this winter - and obviously that was a terribly (warm) winter overall but there was a bout of extreme cold and a bit of snow just before Christmas.

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dreaming of a White Christmas or "big time cold" in December? Joe Bastardi is suggesting above normal odds.

The problem with that is that he makes similar calls on a regular basis during the first half of November. For example:

There is no forecasting skill from this far out. Any successes are matters of random chance, not skill. Forecasting for specific dates in the distant future is more astrology than meteorology.

The maps are intended to shock and draw attention. A similar posting pattern occurs throughout the winter where severe to extreme maps are posted on a regular basis. For example from last winter (January 18, 2024):

 

The outcome for the first week of February 2024:

And when the severe to extreme ideas don't verify, fresh calls for severe to extreme cold/snow are posted for future periods. Already, he's embracing December cold and snow after previously suggesting a cold second half of November with an above average idea of a white Thanksgiving (September 30th post).

Most here are aware of his track record and forecasting tendencies. New members might not be aware. Thus, this post to alert them to be cautious about Social Media claims with wild maps.

The weather has become even more difficult to guess long range.  Back in the 70's, you could use historical patterns to come up with a rational guess of what it may do a month or two in advance.  At least that's how I could guess at the first snowfall.  Not anymore it seems...

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, Eduardo said:

I used to really enjoy his enthusiasm 25 years ago when he was at AccuWx.  But, even though I think he’s probably a decent person, he’s really just become like a cantankerous old uncle that refuses to adjust his views to new information.

Given how seldom his hyped-up forecasts verify though, I wonder how he stays in business.  He holds himself out as a consultant, but is he keeping his gig going with weenie subscriptions?

It's a business...

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No sign of any cold weather through 384 on the gfs. Weird.

Very little cold relative to the means anywhere in the world going back to last year.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose to well above seasonal norms. High temperatures included:

Albany: 72°
Bridgeport: 68°
New York City: 73°
Islip: 70°
Newark: 76°
Poughkeepsie: 76°

Rochester reached 81°. That broke the daily record of 77° from 2022 and tied the all-time November record of 81° that was set on November 1, 1933. It is also the latest 80° or above temperature on record (old record last date: November 2, 1933)

Tomorrow will see some locations challenge or break records. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 70s. Warmer spots could reach 80°.

It will turn somewhat cooler for Thursday and Friday, but both days will still be unseasonably warm. There is growing model support for at least some rain to affect the region late in the weekend. Parts of the region could be in line for 0.25"-0.50" of rain.

Today is Philadelphia's 38th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 38 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -4.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.240 today.

 

[TJW014]

6 hours ago, MANDA said:

That soil looks mighty dry!  Terrible.

Sugar sand as we Pineys call it. This area though had quite a lot of clay mixed in too. The amount of dust that was getting kicked up by other vehicles made it nearly impossible to see.

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No sign of any cold weather through 384 on the gfs. Weird.

Yea we ruined the planet 

[TheClimateChanger]

85F in Dunkirk, New York. Wow, just imagine how hot this superheated airmass in the Coastal Plain. Maybe some 90s tomorrow?

 

[Volcanic Winter]

This is pretty insane. 64f at 12am. 

[bluewave]

It’s been a while since the models had measurable rain within about 120 hrs. Hopefully, the development of the Plains trough pays off for us. We’ll take what ever we can get and need to at least start putting some rainfall points on the board.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a while since the models had measurable rain within about 120 hrs. Hopefully, the development of the Plains trough pays off for us. We’ll take what ever we can get and need to at least start putting some rainfall points on the board.

The ensembles (GEFS GEPS EPS) are a general 0.2 - 0.4 total QPF Sun/Mon which will seem like a deluge 

[snowman19]

As strong a signal as you will ever see for the rest of this month @Bluewave