the_other_guy Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Ski areas out west getting pummeled with early snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Ski areas out west getting pummeled with early snow What’s snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Made down to 30 here and I was below freezing most of the night. Most areas north of the LIE in Suffolk had a long freeze last night. Most of Nassau and southern Suffolk, west of the forks, did not You had to be away from the water north of the LIE to get the freeze since spots like the Stony Brook mesonet missed it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 One of my thermometers dipped to 31 while the other stayed above freezing. TBH a hard freeze (28) should mark the end of the growing season, my potted vegetables and plants are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 50 / 35 from 32. A bit more clouds today as ridge builds in and we warm up, low to mid 60s. Much warmer Tue - Thu with near / low 80s on Wednesday. Cooler but still overall warmer by Fri and the coming weekend. Perhaps a chance of more than a trace of rain Sunday into Monday with showers and light rain (7 weeks) we'll see. Overall warmer than normal with the dry pattern continuing. Watching what will be named Rafael in the Gulf for a late season GOM storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Since the CAA has been so weak this fall NYC is on track for one of their latest first under 40° readings. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1938 04-11 (1938) 33 11-15 (1938) 37 217 2022 04-19 (2022) 39 11-14 (2022) 37 208 1946 04-28 (1946) 37 11-13 (1946) 38 198 1977 05-09 (1977) 36 11-12 (1977) 37 186 1916 04-10 (1916) 38 11-12 (1916) 38 215 1994 04-08 (1994) 34 11-11 (1994) 38 216 1898 04-29 (1898) 39 11-11 (1898) 38 195 1961 04-20 (1961) 38 11-09 (1961) 35 202 1943 04-22 (1943) 39 11-09 (1943) 38 200 2019 04-06 (2019) 39 11-08 (2019) 29 215 2017 04-01 (2017) 37 11-08 (2017) 39 220 1955 04-09 (1955) 39 11-08 (1955) 38 212 1971 04-25 (1971) 38 11-07 (1971) 34 195 1973 04-15 (1973) 39 11-06 (1973) 34 204 1931 04-30 (1931) 38 11-06 (1931) 34 189 1927 04-25 (1927) 38 11-06 (1927) 34 194 1918 04-25 (1918) 39 11-06 (1918) 38 194 1953 04-21 (1953) 36 11-05 (1953) 35 197 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Light rain within sght. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 A warmer look into the beyond with ridge tendency to sustain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Since the CAA has been so weak this fall NYC is on track for one of their latest first under 40° readings. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1946 04-28 (1946) 37 11-13 (1946) 38 198 1994 04-08 (1994) 34 11-11 (1994) 38 216 1898 05-08 (1898) 40 11-11 (1898) 38 186 2022 04-28 (2022) 40 11-09 (2022) 40 194 1938 04-11 (1938) 33 11-09 (1938) 40 211 2017 04-08 (2017) 40 11-07 (2017) 40 212 1971 04-25 (1971) 38 11-07 (1971) 34 195 1931 05-01 (1931) 40 11-06 (1931) 34 188 1927 04-28 (1927) 40 11-05 (1927) 40 190 How did EWR fair with 80 degree days this year? Was wondering if was a top 10 or Top 5. Also, assumed October was one of the sunnier months on records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: How did EWR fair with 80 degree days this year? Was wondering if was a top 10 or Top 5. Also, assumed October was one of the sunnier months on records. EWR needs two more 80° days to tie the record of 118 days set back in 2015. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 118 0 2 2024 116 58 - 2021 116 0 3 1994 114 0 4 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 5 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Records: Highs: EWR: 79 (1994) NYC: 78 (1975) LGA: 76 (1987) JFK: 77 (1975) Lows: EWR: 26 (1951) NYC: 25 (1879) LGA: 29 (1951) JFK: 34 (2019) Historical: 1927 - A great Vermont flood occurred. Tropical rains deluged the Green Mountain area of Vermont causing the worst flood in the history of the state. Torrential rains, up to 15 inches in the higher elevations, sent streams on a rampage devastating the Winooski Valley. Flooding claimed 200 lives and caused 40 million dollars damage. The town of Vernon reported 84 deaths. Flooding left up to eight to ten feet of water in downtown Montpelier VT. (2nd-4th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1935: Called the Yankee Hurricane, this Category 2 storm affected the Bahamas and South Florida. The storm remains the only tropical cyclone to hit Miami from the Northeast in November. 1959: A rare F0 tornado caused minor damage near Cape St. Elias Light Station on Kayak Island, Alaska. 1985 - A super wet Gulf storm dumped upwards of fifteen inches of rain in the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia causing devastating damage and claiming forty lives. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1985: Heavy rains from the remnants of tropical storm Juan dropped 10 to 19 inches of rain on West Virginia and surrounding states, causing 62 deaths. A maximum rainfall amount of 19.77 inches was recorded near Montebello in the Blue Ridge Mountains in Virginia. The flood in West Virginia was considered the worst in the state’s history. 1987 - Thirty-two cities in the eastern and south central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 74 degrees at Portland ME and 86 degrees at Fort Smith AR equalled November records. It was the fourth day of record warmth for Beckley WV, Memphis TN and Paducah KY. A cold front ushered much colder air into the north central U.S. Gale force winds lashed all five Great Lakes. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a fast moving cold front produced severe weather over the Tennessee Valley and the Central Gulf Coast States during the afternoon and evening hours, and into the next morning. Thunderstorms spawned nineteen tornadoes, including eleven in Mississippi. The last of the nineteen tornadoes killed a woman in her mobile home in Lee FL. A tornado in Culbert AL injured sixteen people, and caused two million dollars damage. Thunderstorms also produced baseball size hail in Alabama. Unseasonably hot air prevailed south of the cold front. McAllen TX was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Snow and high winds plagued parts of Colorado and Wyoming. Winds gusted to 71 mph near Wheatland WY, and reached 80 mph west of Fort Collins CO. Up to five inches of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park WY closing many roads. Snow also blanketed northern Minnesota, with seven inches reported at Baudette. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: EWR needs two more 80° days to tie the record of 118 days set back in 2015. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 118 0 2 2024 116 58 - 2021 116 0 3 1994 114 0 4 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 5 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 Thanks for the quick reply, i wasnt able to confirm that but looks like it'll be close or within a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 8 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Thanks for the quick reply, i wasnt able to confirm that but looks like it'll be close or within a day. SMQ already set the record by a good margin at 121 days reaching 80° since they didn’t have the sea breeze to deal with this summer. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 121 58 2 2016 117 0 3 2007 111 0 4 2005 109 1 5 2020 105 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Could see 1 more 80 at EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: EWR needs two more 80° days to tie the record of 118 days set back in 2015. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 118 0 2 2024 116 58 - 2021 116 0 3 1994 114 0 4 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 5 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 even with record amount of 80 degree days snowfall was still above average the winter before 50.3 inches at CP and the winter after 32.8 at CP...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: even with record amount of 80 degree days snowfall was still above average the winter before 50.3 inches at CP and the winter after 32.8 at CP...... That was before the Pacific became so hostile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Interesting blog post from Mt. Washington Observatory site. Was kind of surprised at precipitation departures over last 365 days. Darn close to normal. Would have expected more significant positive departures. Certainly dry over the last 2 months over a large area. https://mountwashington.org/wildfires-in-new-england/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: That was before the Pacific became so hostile. did you post your winter snowfall predictions for 2024 -25 I didn't see them in Walt's thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: did you post your winter snowfall predictions for 2024 -25 I didn't see them in Walt's thread ? The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC. 22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3 21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9 20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6 17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9 16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2 11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4 10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9 08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6 07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9 05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0 00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0 99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3 98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7 95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 How does a warm Nov to a La Nina Dec look for Dec snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: How does a warm Nov to a La Nina Dec look for Dec snowfall? Warm Niña falls doesn’t have as strong of a signal as precip. The correlation to winter is stronger with dryness/wetness. Dry falls, in particular very dry falls have a correlation to below normal snowfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Some models picking up on rain on Sunday.Would really help out with the drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 22 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Some models picking up on rain on Sunday.Would really help out with the drought. Cmc icon and gfs all have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: Some models picking up on rain on Sunday.Would really help out with the drought. Need an all day rain to really make a dent. .25 or something like that will be vaporized in a day or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Need an all day rain to really make a dent. .25 or something like that will be vaporized in a day or so Agree. Showers on Sunday/Monday are not going to undo the damage that has been done since August 20th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj08822 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Agree. Showers on Sunday/Monday are not going to undo the damage that has been done since August 20th Short term, significant rain (even showery) will hopefully ease the danger from fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Perhaps a potential Texas threat as ridge steers west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 The signal is so strong for warmth that all the guidance sees it pretty well.Not sure about THE warmest November, but I can absolutely see this being in the top 5 based on what the ensembles are showing right through Thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Man what a torch. Whole winter may look like that at this rate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Man what a torch. Whole winter may look like that at this rate.... Too early yet. If this was December I would lean towards you. let it shake out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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