November 2024

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

maybe we can get the latest 80 on record

It already happened in Feb so year round shot at 80s is in the cards. 

Much better odds this season with the drought 

[SACRUS]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

maybe we can get the latest 80 on record

Thats Nov 15 at EWR

[ecovers94]

I may lose my mind if there isn't a sustained forecast for rain soon.

[bluewave]

Newark has a shot at 80° on Wednesday as the highs have been beating guidance with the drought recently. This would only be the 4th time Newark made it over 80° after November 5th. The most recent occurrence was back in 2022.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022-12-31	81	0
2	1993-12-31	80	0
-	1948-12-31	80	0

[Allsnow]

80’s every month now 

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Nov 1950 also started with max temps in low to mid 80s and went on to produce a second memorable November event, the "Great Appalachian storm" of Nov 24-26 (I know people here are generally familiar with its legacy of strong wind gusts at coast and heavy snow inland, CLE had 30" and Toronto 13" for its Nov daily record). 

Another intense northward moving NOV storm was Nov 9-10, 1913. Like this year, 1913 and 1950 were close to lunar declination maxima.  (occurring every 18.6 years)

 

@BigJoeBastardi on X was recently discussing 1950 as a potential analog. I personally don't think it is a good analog. 1950 was a very cold year for the CONUS as a whole. Indeed, it had been the coldest year in the CONUS since 1929, although it was surpassed by the following year (1951). And it's only been surpassed by a handful of years since, and of course nothing even close in recent decades. I do wonder if the massive Chinchaga firestorm had something to do with the chill. The intensity of that fire could have easily lofted aerosols into the stratosphere, as we've seen with some recent fires.  The winter of 1950-51 remains the snowiest on record at Pittsburgh.

 

[wdrag]

Checking back I saw isolated Trace nw NJ, s CT for this supposed 0% event... which  verifies 0 percent officially but I Think a 5 or 10% would have been a better indicator. of the daily risk changes.

 

I just saw a forecast on NY TV for 0% chance of rain through Friday?  Decision making must have omitted the RGEM/NAM.  It's murky light rain/drizzle tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but to say 0%?Chec

[wdrag]

Caribbean storm coming into better focus and may have an impact here (rain or squally rain?) around Nov 11-12?  A large percentage of autumn rain here I think tropical related.

Looks like we'll get something here with very minor tropical RH contribution Sunday night. 

[TheClimateChanger]

12 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

guys, you gotta get real about the warming though…it’s not like a constant trajectory that’s gonna be infinite.

New York is not going to become the new Florida. 

 

What do you think you’re going to continually add 5° a decade?

 

 

 

Fortunately, we won't need to warm 5F per decade to reach Floridian levels in New York.

If we look at Tallahassee, we can see the average from 1957-58 to 1987-88 was 51.9F, so about a degree a decade for the next 13 decades should do for NYC. That would put the Big Apple at Floridian levels by the middle of next century. But that doesn't tell the whole story. By minimum temperature, the last 9 winters have only averaged about 7F cooler than Tallahassee in the mid to late 20th century. Since vegetation is largely affected by minimum temperatures [and cold extremes], I would anticipate that to change more rapidly than might be implied by a mean temperature analysis.

[Picard]

Low of 26 here this morning w/moderate frost.  Nick Stefano is claiming an 18° low out in Layton/Sandyston area of NW New Jersey.  Maybe?  Walpack shows 22°
Plants here are still going strong, still have petunias!  Not sure after last night, but we'll see.  I'm getting over the watering part though.

[MANDA]

48 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Caribbean storm coming into better focus and may have an impact here (rain or squally rain?) around Nov 11-12?  A large percentage of autumn rain here I think qstropical related.

I am hoping for this.  If whatever this becomes can get linked up with an eastward moving front / upper trof we might get some needed rainfall.  Timing might me good.  The fact that this development has been delayed might end up being a good thing.  We'll see.  Thanks Walt!

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 81 (2003)
NYC: 79 (2003)
LGA: 80 (2003)
JFK: 75 (2003)

Lows:

EWR: 29 (1951)
NYC: 28 (1875)
LGA: 32 (1951)
JFK: 32 (1980)


Historical:

 

1890 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 96 degrees, a November record for 76 years. (David Ludlum)

1927 - Somerset VT was deluged with 8.77 inches of rain to establish a 24 hour record for the state. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel)

1927: Historic flooding occurred across Vermont from November 2nd through the 4th. The flood washed out 1285 bridges, miles of roads and railways, and several homes and buildings. Eighty-four people were killed from the flooding, including Lt. Governor S. Hollister Jackson. Click HERE for additional information by Tom Moore. 

1961 - A rare November thunderstorm produced snow at Casper, WY. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1966: An early season snowfall, which started on the 2nd, whitened the ground from Alabama to Michigan. Mobile, Alabama, had their earliest snowflakes on record. Louisville, Kentucky measured 13.1 inches, Nashville; Tennessee reported 7.2 inches, and Huntsville, Alabama, had 4 inches of snow.

1987 - Twenty-one cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Columbus OH was their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. Showers and thundershowers associated with a tropical depression south of Florida produced 4.28 inches of rain at Clewiston in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A sharp cold front brought about an abrupt end to Indian Summer in the north central U.S. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park WY, and winds in the mountains near the Washoe Valley of southeastern Wyoming gusted to 78 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central U.S. Del Rio TX tied Laredo TX and McAllen TX for honors as the hot spot in the nation with a record warm afternoon high of 91 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Cold weather prevailed in the central U.S. Six cities in Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan, reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 7 above zero at Marquette MI was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary)

 

2001: Hurricane Michelle reached peak intensity on this day as a Category 4 storm. Michelle made landfall on November 4-5, between Playa Larga and Playa Giron, Cuba, as a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest to strike the country since 1952's Hurricane Fox. The storm caused an estimated $2 billion US dollars in damage to Cuba.

2002: A Magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck central Alaska. The quake is the 9th largest to be recorded in the US.

2007: Dense fog in the early morning hours resulted in a 100 vehicle pile-up just north of Fowler, CA on I-99. Two people were killed, and 41 others were injured. The thick seasonal fog is known as "Tule fog" and typically occurs in Central California in late fall and winter. 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I am hoping for this.  If whatever this becomes can get linked up with an eastward moving front / upper trof we might get some needed rainfall.  Timing might me good.  The fact that this development has been delayed might end up being a good thing.  We'll see.  Thanks Walt!

Models finally showing something inside 7 days. Icon late week. Gfs next weekend. Cmc not enthused though. I'd take anything at this point. 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models finally showing something inside 7 days. Icon late week. Gfs next weekend. Cmc not enthused though. I'd take anything at this point. 

Same here!  Anything.

[the_other_guy]

54 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Fortunately, we won't need to warm 5F per decade to reach Floridian levels in New York.

If we look at Tallahassee, we can see the average from 1957-58 to 1987-88 was 51.9F, so about a degree a decade for the next 13 decades should do for NYC. That would put the Big Apple at Floridian levels by the middle of next century. But that doesn't tell the whole story. By minimum temperature, the last 9 winters have only averaged about 7F cooler than Tallahassee in the mid to late 20th century. Since vegetation is largely affected by minimum temperatures [and cold extremes], I would anticipate that to change more rapidly than might be implied by a mean temperature analysis.

you need to be careful in these comparisons though because something odd happens when you get inland in the southeast.

 

I’m an airline pilot. I’ve been flying for 20 years. It isn’t unusual for places like Raleigh to be colder than New York City at night in colder seasons on clear still nights. 

 

New York City is a disgusting urban heat is on the coast. 

If you want a true comparison to see warming between us and the inland Southeast, you should probably step inland a little bit or even out to Central Long Island.

 

I would be much more comfortable with this comparison if you used a place like Islip or a place like Morristown.

 

From what we have seen so far, AGW only magnifies the UHI at night…that doesn’t exist in any appreciable way in the south eastern United States outside of immediate metro Atlanta.

 

even Atlanta can get colder than New York City on calm, clear nights

 

 

[Picard]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models finally showing something inside 7 days. Icon late week. Gfs next weekend. Cmc not enthused though. I'd take anything at this point. 

Me too.  Even a couple damp, dreary days of 0.05-0.10" would be something, if nothing else, to mitigate the fire threat.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

80’s every month now 

Our only 2 months without 80s have been December and January. But since the 2nd half of December has been warming faster than 1st half, the 12-7-98 Newark monthly max  of 76° has been unbeatable so far. Getting to 80° in January would still be a stretch since the currently monthly max is still 74° at Newark in 1950. But under the right set of conditions, 75 to 78° could be in range one of these years. 

[donsutherland1]

Both the ECMWF weekly and CFSv2 weekly forecasts show warmer than normal to much warmer than normal temperatures throughout November for the New York City area. That raises the question as to whether November 2024 will go on to become the warmest November on record.

Historic data and sensitivity analysis suggest that a new record is plausible, even from this early in the month, considering the latest guidance through mid-month.

50% of New York City's warmest Novembers have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

The 10 warmest Novembers have typically been followed by a warmer than normal winter (80% of cases) with 40% of cases seeing exceptionally warm winters (seasonal mean temperature of 40° or above). The mean winter temperature was 38.2° and the median winter temperature was 37.9°. Warmest: 41.6°, 2001-02; Coldest: 34.2°, 1975-76.

In terms of snowfall, 70% of cases saw less than 20" of snowfall, including 30% with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. However, 30% of cases saw 30" or more seasonal snowfall. The mean seasonal snowfall was 18.4" and the median was 12.6". Highest seasonal snowfall: 42.0", 1948-49; Lowest seasonal snowfall: 3.5", 2001-02.

[psv88]

Only made it down to 39. Frost advisory fall 

[lee59]

Maybe tonight my area might see some frost. It may be like all the other chances we had where clouds or mild air moves  in at the last minute. Meanwhile inland has seen numerous frosts and in many areas freezes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

For as much climate talk as there has been, remember many of the models assume the Gulf Stream continuing to pump warm waters up the coast and to Europe. With Greenland melting, the Gulf Stream is slowing. If it collapses, then we are going to see a massive change in heat energy distribution. Tons of reports out: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/rivers-oceans/key-atlantic-current-could-collapse-soon-impacting-the-entire-world-for-centuries-to-come-leading-climate-scientists-warn. But you can also read the academic journals about it as well. It is fascinating, but terrifying.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

If you want a true comparison to see warming between us and the inland Southeast, you should probably step inland a little bit or even out to Central Long Island.

 

I would be much more comfortable with this comparison if you used a place like Islip or a place like Morristown.

The ISP winter average temperature since 15-16 has been 36.4°. The 81-10 climate normals at IAD in the Washington DC suburbs were 35.3°. So ISP has been about a degree warmer than the 81-10 winter means in Suburban Northern VA. 

[chris21]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The ISP winter average temperature since 15-16 has been 36.4°. The 81-10 climate normals at IAD in the Washington DC suburbs were 35.3°. So ISP has been about a degree warmer than the 81-10 winter means in Suburban Northern VA. 

Was ISP ever significantly colder than IAD in the winter? IAD is far inland.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Was ISP ever significantly colder than IAD in the winter? IAD is far inland.

The 81-10 winter normals at ISP were 33.0° vs 35.3° at IAD. 

[chris21]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 81-10 winter normals at ISP were 33.0° vs 35.3° at IAD. 

Thanks! Thats about what I would have figured.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Only made it down to 39. Frost advisory fall 

Made it to 37 here 

[qg_omega]

Keep sprinklers on until December?

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, chris21 said:

Thanks! Thats about what I would have figured.

The last 9 year winter average temperature rise has been impressive at all our local sites. NYC has seen the same rate of increase as ISP vs the 81-10 means. HPN has experienced a slightly higher increase.

NYC….81-10…35.1°……last 9 winters….38.5°…+3.4°

ISP……81-10…33.0°…..last 9 winters….36.4°….+3.4°

HPN….81-10…30.9°….last 9 winters….34.8°…..+3.9°

 

[donsutherland1]

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday could be very warm days with some locations challenging or breaking records on Wednesday.

Today is Philadelphia's 36th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 36 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -9.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.257 today.

 

[donsutherland1]

Some fall photos from this afternoon. Many of the leaves have now fallen.