November 2024

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

.41 in the bucket today. Monthly total of 2.77 so far. More to come on Turkey Day.

Much needed but bummer it's on Thanksgiving with 5K's, High school football, the parade etc

[eduggs]

The 12z GEPS likes Dec 5-6 for a potential coastal storm - miller B style. GEFS and EPS have a weak signal there too, but nothing exciting.

Cold and dry after Thanksgiving until further notice but enough interest to keep checking model runs.

[bluewave]

The only good thing about a rainy Thanksgiving is that it will help some spots avoid their driest fall on record.

 

[lee59]

.36 inch of rain here today

[steve392]

2.25" in the last week plus warm temps are keeping my flowers, peppers, roses and grass growing.  Ridiculous but awesome at same time. 

[donsutherland1]

A cooler pattern is now imminent. It will turn cooler and increasingly cloudy tomorrow. Rain will arrive late tomorrow night or Thursday morning. The rain will continue into Thursday night. Distant northern and western suburbs could see some snow mix in.

Colder air will begin to move into the region following the Thanksgiving Day storm. On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance is in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is possible.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase.

The SOI was +24.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.555 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2° (3.2° above normal).