Brian5671 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 11 minutes ago, weathermedic said: .41 in the bucket today. Monthly total of 2.77 so far. More to come on Turkey Day. Much needed but bummer it's on Thanksgiving with 5K's, High school football, the parade etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 The 12z GEPS likes Dec 5-6 for a potential coastal storm - miller B style. GEFS and EPS have a weak signal there too, but nothing exciting. Cold and dry after Thanksgiving until further notice but enough interest to keep checking model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 The only good thing about a rainy Thanksgiving is that it will help some spots avoid their driest fall on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 .36 inch of rain here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2.25" in the last week plus warm temps are keeping my flowers, peppers, roses and grass growing. Ridiculous but awesome at same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 A cooler pattern is now imminent. It will turn cooler and increasingly cloudy tomorrow. Rain will arrive late tomorrow night or Thursday morning. The rain will continue into Thursday night. Distant northern and western suburbs could see some snow mix in. Colder air will begin to move into the region following the Thanksgiving Day storm. On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance is in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is possible. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. The SOI was +24.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.555 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2° (3.2° above normal). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 The GFS finally came north and is more consolidated with the low on Thanksgiving. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS finally came north and is more consolidated with the low on Thanksgiving. New run Old run Hopefully the ridge helps us out with threats in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 34 with light frost Saturday morning should finally be the hard freeze I have been waiting for locally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 34 with light frost Saturday morning should finally be the hard freeze I have been waiting for locally Definitely without question. Highs could stay in the 30s as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Tue highs - warmest for a while (at least mid dec and potentially beyond) TEB: 64 ACY: 63 EWR: 62 JFK: 62 PHL: 62 New Brnswck: 61 BLM: 60 TTN: 59 LGA: 58 NYC: 58 ISP: 57 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 46 / 29. Mid 50s and cloudy later with rain overnight into Thu - 0.50 - 1.00. Cold arrives Thanksgiving weekend, with a cold start to Dec, potentially the coldest since 2010 (first 7 -10 days). Clouds to W PA already and a few hours of sun here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Any chance this holds off until mid morning to get the parade in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Any chance this holds off until mid morning to get the parade in? Steadier heavier rain may hold off til after 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 29 this morning, first freeze in a while 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Records: HIghs: EWR: 67 (1960) NYC: 72 (1896) LGA: 65 (2015) JFK: 63 (2020) Lows: EWR: 12 (1932) NYC: 12 (1932) LGA: 23 (1949) JFK: 23 (1949) Historical: 1701:Anders Celsius, the astronomer who invented the Celsius, often called the centigrade thermometer scale was born on this date. 1883 - Fire engines were called out in New York City and New Haven, CT, as a result of the afterglow of the sunset due to vivid red ash from the Krakatoa Volcano explosion in August. (The Weather Channel) 1898 - The Portland storm raged across New England producing gale force winds along the coast and heavy snow inland. A foot of snow blanketed Boston MA, and 27 inches fell at New London CT. Winds at Boston gusted to 72 mph, and wind gusts to 98 mph were estimated at Block Island RI. A passenger ship, the S. S. Portland, sank off Cape Cod with the loss of all 191 persons aboard, and Boston Harbor was filled with wrecked ships. The storm wrecked 56 vessels resulting in a total of 456 casualties. (26th- 28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Wet weather prevailed across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Sunny and cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Snow fell in the central U.S., with totals in Kansas ranging up to six inches at Burr Oak. Much of the area from central Oklahoma to southwestern Minnesota experienced its first snow of the winter season. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Windom, and snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Aitkin. Snow drifts seven feet high closed many roads. Fargo ND reported a wind chill reading of 34 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A storm system crossing the north central U.S. spread snow across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Heavy snow fell in western South Dakota, with 18 inches reported at Galena. Strong winds associated with the storm gusted to 50 mph in the Great Lakes Region and the Great Plains, with blowing dust reported in Kansas. Thunderstorms associated with the same storm system produced damaging winds in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana during the evening, with gusts to 73 mph reported east of Ypsilante MI. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Twenty-three cities from the Gulf coast to the Ohio Valley and the Mid Mississippi Valley reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - A major winter storm affected parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas during the 27th-28th. Snowfall accumulations of 16-20 inches were observed in parts of eastern South Dakota, while wind gusts exceeding 60 mph also accompanied the snow, creating blizzard conditions. Thousands of power outages were caused by the combination of strong winds and heavy snow. In South Dakota, about 8,000 utility poles and 10,000 miles of transmission line were brought down by the storm (Associated Press). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 17 hours ago, bluewave said: The only good thing about a rainy Thanksgiving is that it will help some spots avoid their driest fall on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Gorgeous morning. A tad chilly but the sun warms you up. Watching the parade of planes on approach to Newark Airport fly over me at 2800 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Clipper city on gfs. It has a clipper reforming off the coast next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 First frost this morning at the beach. One of the latest I can remember. Ever. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Clipper city on gfs. It has a clipper reforming off the coast next week. It will be difficult to get more than a tenth of an inch liquid out of any of those. And the GFS still has ptype issues for the immediate coastal plain. But still an entertaining run. The CMC has a less favorable trof angle with the ridge pushing further east giving us more of a NW flow instead of WNW on the GFS. Subtlety in the evolution and progression of the shortwaves will determine if we can score an inch or two of snow over the next 7-10 days. There should be at least a few periods of snow showers, possibly even lake-effect streamers. It's nice to have some coldish weather. But no significant storms on the foreseeable horizon for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Any chance this holds off until mid morning to get the parade in? Seems like models are actually speeding up the arrival a bit....looks to start around 3-4am. Bummer for many reasons--today would have been perfect for parades and football games 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Yeah it's bad timing for Thanksgiving morning activities, but as I said the other day it does appear we can salvage part of the afternoon. Rain should be out of here by 2 or 3pm so at least it's not an all day washout. Anyway I want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving tomorrow! I hope everyone has a great holiday. Hopefully after the holiday we'll have a snow threat to track. As eduggs said, right now it looks more likely that it'll just be light snow threats. Maybe we can get a coating to an inch or two from a clipper-like system. With cold air around for an extended period of time in early to mid December, you'd hope that we can at least pull off something like that. I see 12z Euro does give us some light snow next Wednesday night. Long way to go on that one, but I'm hopeful that we'll see at least a little accumulating snow in early December. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 As you know, 2023 was warmest year for NYC and it looks possible that 2024 will replace it unless DEC is cold (last year it was very mild). Allowing for a drop of 1.9 in NOV (now at 52.9 after 26 days), these are the differentials showing that 2024 has overtaken 2023 after June and will have a total differential of +7.2 deg. Therefore DEC will need to average 7.2 lower than last year's toasty 44.6 (2nd to 2015) to create a tie (a narrow range around 37.4 F will create a one-decimal tie). 36.8 appears to be a target value to prevent 2024 from overtaking 2023, and that average for DEC ranks 74th out of 155 and is below all but six averages for DEC since (and incl) 2000 (2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2017). 2023 ___43.5 _41.1 _44.6 _ 57.6 _62.7 _70.0 _79.0 _74.0 _69.4 _ 60.5 __46.7 __ 44.6 ___ 58.0 2024 ___37.0 _40.1 _48.1 _ 55.6 _65.0 _75.1 _79.6 _75.1 _68.8 __ 60.9 __ 51.0 __ ?? diff ____ -6.5 _-1.0 _+3.5 _-2.0 _+2.3 _+5.1 _+0.6 _+1.1 _-0.6 __ +0.4 __ +4.3 __ ?? DEC 2024 will need to average below 31 F to fall below tied 2nd warmest 2012, 2020. An extremely cold DEC could take 2024 out of the top ten because the ranks are quite densely populated starting with four years tied 4th warmest (1990,91,98, 2016) just behind the second place tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 6 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Any chance this holds off until mid morning to get the parade in? That's okay, the Macy's parade has become a joke. Even CBS is not going to air it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 40 minutes ago, Dark Star said: That's okay, the Macy's parade has become a joke. Even CBS is not going to air it... The parade may suck but it's on NBC as it has been for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Rain to W/WC -PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 A cooler pattern is now in its early stages of developing. Rain will arrive late tonight. The rain will continue into tomorrow night. Some of the distant northern and western suburbs could see some snow mix in. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. Colder air will begin to move into the region following the Thanksgiving Day storm. On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow is likely. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. The SOI was +21.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.187 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal). November 2024 will be the third November since 2020 with a monthly mean temperature of 50° or above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Hope everyone has a happy and pleasant Thanksgiving with the people most important to you.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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