November 2024

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I am not starting a thread, at least not yet...since again the NYC core portion of the subforum may see only rain... but for what its worth... P-WSSI for late Thanksgiving-Friday of next week.  I made some comments in the graphic...just click it for clarity.

The big issue is that we don’t have arctic air yet and the airmass that’s going to be in place is extremely marginal. While that may work later on in mid-late December/January/February, even early March, it’s not going to work near the coast in November unless there is very rapid deepening of the surface low off the coast and the midlevel lows take a good track to allow for strong UVVs/dynamic cooling and cold air drainage

[SACRUS]

 

38 / 35 1.99 in the bucket Wed PM - Fri PM, most since August.   Near normal to slightly above normal through Tue.  Next shot at light rain Overnight Monday into Tue then the later in the day Thursday into Black Friday.  Much colder look starting thanksgivigng weekend into the first week to 10 days of December looking likely, with various storm threats possible.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Rainfall totals:

 

NYC: 2.12
LGA: 1.80
JFK: 1.70
EWR: 1.47
TTN: 1.45
 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1931)
NYC: 72 (1931)
LGA: 70 (1992)
JFK: 71 (1992)


Lows:

EWR: 13 (2018)
NYC: 14 (1880)
LGA: 17 (2018)
JFK: 15 (2018)

 

Historical:

 

1909 - Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)

1912: The Rouse Simmons was a three-masted schooner famous for sinking during a violent storm on Lake Michigan on this day. The ship was bound for Chicago with a cargo of Christmas trees when it foundered off the coast of Two Rivers, Wisconsin, killing all on board.

1943 - Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm which left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, and 56 inches at Randolph. The 56 inch total at Randolph established a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Rain and gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific coast. Quillayute, WA, received 1.57 inches of rain in 24 hours, including nine tenths of an inch in six hours. Heavy snow fell over northern Oregon and the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. Temperatures began to moderate in the eastern U.S. following a bitterly cold weekend. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure crossing the Great Basin brought wintry weather to parts of the western U.S. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park, and winds gusted to 70 mph at casper WY, and reached 95 mph near Reno NV. Up to seven inches of rain was reported in the Grass Valley and Nevada City area of California. Paradise CA was soaked with 5.37 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure tracking across the Carolinas brought heavy rain to parts of the Southern Atlantic Coast Region for Thanksgiving Day, and blanketed the Middle Atlantic Coast States and southern New England with heavy snow. The storm produced up to nine inches of snow over Long Island NY, and up to 14 inches over Cape Cod MA, at Yarmouth. Totals of 4.7 inches at New York City and 6.0 inches at Newark NJ were records for Thanksgiving Day, the 8.0 inch total at Providence RI was a record for any given day in November, and the 6.5 inch total at Strasburg CT was a record for the month of November as a whole. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - An outbreak of severe thunderstorms produced reports of 54 tornadoes across portions of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alabama. In Texas's Hardin county, one person was killed with three injured when a tornado struck during the afternoon (Associated Press).

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Rainfall totals:

 

NYC: 2.12
LGA: 1.80
JFK: 1.70
EWR: 1.47
TTN: 1.45
 

More coming Tuesday and thanksgiving 

[MANDA]

Precipitation summary at my location:

Event melted total = 2.84"

Event snowfall = 6.5"

Guidance indicating some bitter cold building over Alaska and adjacent western Canada by mid and late next week.

Developing pattern will dislodge it and send it southeast into the central and eastern U.S. to close November and for the first week of December.  Lack of snow covered ground over the U.S. will modify it as heads for the east coast but looks like a solid very cold shot for our area. 

Precipitation events and associated P-types to be determined Thanksgiving night into Friday and then first week of December to be determined.

[IrishRob17]

Event melted total: 2.55”

Event snowfall: 3.5” with 2” at the stake this morning. A much needed nice soaking event to put down the wildfires. 
 

[wdrag]

Note CoCoRaHs reports incomplete high terrain PA/NYS/nw NJ  due to snow related comms itterruptions. Have added general obs to show the hole, plus the power outages maps as of 6A. Also added 3 day qpf maps as a general idea (CoCoRaHs) and the snow fall maps (most out of our NYCsubforum  

For my own experimental record... whenever a winter event has a NWS Warning near the subforum (in this case I84 corridor) I'll identify it as an event . I've called this for my own tracking SS1. 

If you want closer look, please click the graphics. 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

God I love -EPO. 

[snywx]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Event melted total: 2.55”

Event snowfall: 3.5” with 2” at the stake this morning. A much needed nice soaking event to put down the wildfires. 
 

2.75” total qpf

4” of snow 

[Stormlover74]

Looks like a cold rain for turkey day. Snow for the interior. Parade may not be fun especially if alot of wind too

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a cold rain for turkey day. Snow for the interior. Parade may not be fun especially if alot of wind too

Just not near enough cold air with this one for most if not all of our sub forum.  Strong upper level system and associated dynamics are not going to save the day on this Thanksgiving event like we just saw with this recent event.  Still time but there will need to be huge changes.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MANDA said:

Just not near enough cold air with this one for most of our sub forum.  Strong upper level system and associated dynamics are not going to save the day on this Thanksgiving event like we just saw with this recent event.  Still time but there will need to be huge changes.

Gfs is further southeast and weaker. It likely comes north in future runs. Timing of the cmc would be awful as the worst would be morning and midday

[MANDA]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is further southeast and weaker. It likely comes north in future runs. Timing of the cmc would be awful as the worst would be morning and midday

Yeah.  Snowfall hopes aside the timing on CMC is not good.  Plenty of time for that to adjust though.  Hopefully timing will adjust to make the parade a pleasant experience for all.

[MJO812]

Euro is a rainstorm 

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a rainstorm 

Cutter

[SACRUS]

Tue AM light rain and moderate rainfall Thu - another 1 - 2 for the week 

[nycwinter]

 what a beautiful blustery winter's day i love it!!!

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is further southeast and weaker. It likely comes north in future runs. Timing of the cmc would be awful as the worst would be morning and midday

I would forget about this one for any snow around the city and coast, maybe well inland with some elevation can benefit. The Goldilocks zone between too far N which brings warm air in or too far S/weak which means suppressed or no dynamics in a marginal airmass is too narrow. 

[Franklin0529]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need it

 

[winterwx21]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cutter

A little front end snow well to the NW on the Euro. As snowman19 said, we just don't have the cold air in place yet for this event. That along with the bad track means you're going to have to be well to the NW to see any snow, unless we see dramatic changes. 

I'm excited about the extended cold pattern after that storm though. It has been a long time since we've seen a December snowstorm here, and we're gonna have a real shot in early December for a change. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a rainstorm 

Euro/CMC are both going for snow for places in the Poconos/Catskills/Berks and north with the late week event.  Euro has been going for this for a few runs now.

[Tatamy]

22 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

A little front end snow well to the NW on the Euro. As snowman19 said, we just don't have the cold air in place yet for this event. That along with the bad track means you're going to have to be well to the NW to see any snow, unless we see dramatic changes. 

I'm excited about the extended cold pattern after that storm though. It has been a long time since we've seen a December snowstorm here, and we're gonna have a real shot in early December for a change. 

Snowman is correct.  Arctic stream involvement is a must for snow for this event in this area.

[North and West]

Euro is a rainstorm 

Good - we need the rain. Plus, easier travel.


.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a rainstorm 

Not much cold air present even in a good track. 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Impressive winds today. Front yard looks like a snowglobe, leaves flying in all directions.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see temperature begin to turn milder with the temperature reaching 50° or somewhat higher. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days. Temperatures will top out in the middle and perhaps upper 50s.

Afterward colder air will begin to move into the region. On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance is in good agreement for a cold first half of December.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased.

The SOI was +19.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.658 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0° (3.0° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

Quite windy the last couple hours. Lawn furniture blown all over the place. 

[bluewave]

With a little luck the systems correct more amped so all of our stations can easily avoid the driest fall on record.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	2.81	8
2	1931	4.21	0
3	1964	4.93	0
4	2013	5.02	0
5	1941	5.04	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	3.87	8
2	1908	4.00	0
3	1909	4.67	0
4	1881	4.93	0
5	1931	4.97	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	2.94	8
2	1965	3.31	0
3	2001	4.02	0
4	2013	4.86	0
5	1973	5.38	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	2.94	8
2	1965	3.31	0
3	2001	4.02	0
4	2013	4.86	0
5	1973	5.38	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	2.73	8
2	1964	3.68	0
3	1965	4.16	0
4	2001	4.20	0
5	2013	5.55	0