November 2024

[Stormlover74]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If anything, I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - + 4 this winter busts too cold given the rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years 

2001-02 is probably the new normal just a wetter version

[psv88]

The last decade has been incredibly warm, winters especially. The last real winter was 2013-2014. 
 

It’s remarkable that people don’t see it. 

[Roger Smith]

Nov 1950 also started with max temps in low to mid 80s and went on to produce a second memorable November event, the "Great Appalachian storm" of Nov 24-26 (I know people here are generally familiar with its legacy of strong wind gusts at coast and heavy snow inland, CLE had 30" and Toronto 13" for its Nov daily record). 

Another intense northward moving NOV storm was Nov 9-10, 1913. Like this year, 1913 and 1950 were close to lunar declination maxima.  (occurring every 18.6 years)

 

[psv88]

Still 48…not seeing this frost advisory verifying

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If anything, I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - + 4 this winter busts too cold given the rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years 

guys, you gotta get real about the warming though…it’s not like a constant trajectory that’s gonna be infinite.

New York is not going to become the new Florida. 

 

What do you think you’re going to continually add 5° a decade?

 

 

 

[cleetussnow]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If anything, I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - + 4 this winter busts too cold given the rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years 

We could do plus 4 easily.   December could go plus 5 or 6 and the rest of the winter won’t be able to cut into that.  No sign the Pacific lets up now.  

[Rjay]

EPS just keeps reloading the ridge

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

EPS just keeps reloading the ridge

I think this ends up another record dry month and the drought continues unabated 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

guys, you gotta get real about the warming though…it’s not like a constant trajectory that’s gonna be infinite.

New York is not going to become the new Florida. 

 

What do you think you’re going to continually add 5° a decade?

 

 

 

The winter average temperature since December 15 has been the same temperature as Virginia just south of DC had from 81-10. NYC has been at 38.5° last 9 winters and the old 81-10 DCA normals were 38.2°.So we have mid-Atlantic climate now. If the warming goes unchecked next 30 years, then we may get the 81-10 Norfolk or interior NC old normals. 
 

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

[the_other_guy]

I need to give the frost advisory credit. We do have frost this morning on the cars

[Allsnow]

36 some light frost on car tops and roof tops 

[Allsnow]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s gone way beyond the -PDO. That’s why we never saw this type of sustained warmth for 9 straight winters before. This recent paper discusses the historic rise in the SSTs from east of Japan to south of the Aleutians. Plus the subtropical Atlantic has warmed far beyond any past +AMO periods. 
 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

 

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

Not disagreeing with the sustained warmth but I feel the snowfall would be better around here with a +PDO 

[the_other_guy]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The winter average temperature since December 15 has been the same temperature as Virginia just south of DC had from 81-10. NYC has been at 38.5° last 9 winters and the old 81-10 DCA normals were 38.2°.So we have mid-Atlantic climate now. If the warming goes unchecked next 30 years, then we may get the 81-10 Norfolk or interior NC old normals. 
 

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

and 30 years beyond that we have a Georgia climate?

it isn’t linear. at some point, this will either level out or slow significantly to a new normal. 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The winter average temperature since December 15 has been the same temperature as Virginia just south of DC had from 81-10. NYC has been at 38.5° last 9 winters and the old 81-10 DCA normals were 38.2°.So we have mid-Atlantic climate now. If the warming goes unchecked next 30 years, then we may get the 81-10 Norfolk or interior NC old normals. 
 

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

I think more than the warmth (which has been going on for years now), the big story since August is the record dry pattern. We have clearly gone into a dry feedback loop and once they are in place, they are VERY hard to break 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

and 30 years beyond that we have a Georgia climate?

it isn’t linear. at some point, this will either level out or slow significantly to a new normal. 

 

The change since 15-16 was more of a shift rather than linear. The future will depend on the choices the global society makes. So that aspect is unpredictable. But a business as usual pattern for another 30 years will make the last decade seem cold by comparison. The cost of business as usual may become so great that process forces a change and the climate reaches a point of stabilization rather than these rapid jumps associated with non linear changes.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The change since 15-16 was more of a shift rather than linear. The future will depend on the choices the global society makes. So that aspect is unpredictable. But a business as usual pattern for another 30 years will make the last decade seem cold by comparison. The cost of business as usual may become so great that process forces a change and the climate reaches a point of stabilization rather than these rapid jumps associated with non linear changes.

What will be the breaking point that actually forces global changes is the question. Because so far it's been pretty much business as usual

[SACRUS]

 

41 / 30 from 34.  Sunny dry and liekly the coolest day of the next 10.   Ridge rebuilds Monday with much warmer Tue - Thu   near / low 80s coller Fri - Sun (next weekend) before the next ridge surge around the 11th.  Overall warmer with dry continuing.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

SE / C-GOM threat later next week

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The winter average temperature since December 15 has been the same temperature as Virginia just south of DC had from 81-10. NYC has been at 38.5° last 9 winters and the old 81-10 DCA normals were 38.2°.So we have mid-Atlantic climate now. If the warming goes unchecked next 30 years, then we may get the 81-10 Norfolk or interior NC old normals. 
 

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

The University of Maryland has a "Future Urban Climates" app that one can use to project what a given location's climate will be like under high emissions and lower emissions (but higher than the Paris Agreement's requirements) will be like by 2080. Here's NYC's for a lower emissions scenario:

A high emissions scenario would provide a climate comparable to Ola, AR.

The app can be found here: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

 

 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What will be the breaking point that actually forces global changes is the question. Because so far it's been pretty much business as usual

My guess is that some event that is far more catastrophic than anything that has been witnessed to date, probably one that affects large numbers of people on multiple continents. Individual events are quickly forgotten. The rise of Gen-Z to power might also affect the trajectory, assuming they retain their general views concerning climate change and the urgency of addressing it.

[MJO812]

37 here in Warwick

First time below 40 I have seen so far this season.  ( back to NYC soon )

[snywx]

28 for a low here

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

37 here in Warwick

First time below 40 I have seen so far this season.  ( back to NYC soon )

Most places in & around Warwick are currently below freezing 

[Allsnow]

It’s been historically dry here 

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

10 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

guys, you gotta get real about the warming though…it’s not like a constant trajectory that’s gonna be infinite.

New York is not going to become the new Florida. 

 

What do you think you’re going to continually add 5° a decade?

 

 

 

At this point, yes, until evidence shows otherwise.  

[cleetussnow]

None of this changes in our lifetimes.  To reverse CO2 levels in the atmosphere takes a lot of energy, and we do ‘t produce enough energy to do this, not even close.  And I mean, we don’t have the tech, nevermind money, to create this energy and still keep our own lights on.  Its a spectacular engineering challenge.  It may be possible in a few centuries but my guess is humans adapt in other ways instead.  It may be possible to slow CO2 levels increasingly using nuclear energy, but that will take a century and we need China to get onboard.  China is the largest producer of CO2 and their production has to expand until 2030 - its basically law . They build numerous coal fired electricity plants annually.  At one time it was more than one per month.  If they want to power their economy with coal, which they do, no one can stop them.  I’d love to send an army of Gretas to deal with them, trust me.  India too.  So in our lifetimes, forget about electric cars, or the new generation of youth, protests, or whoever, the challenges are immutable: engineering, economic, and political, and no one reading this will observe decreasing CO2 production globally, much less removal of CO2 in the atmosphere.  

throw on the energy use we are about to apply to AI - no shot.

this winter sucks.  

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s been historically dry here 

 

 

 

The main hope is that a piece of the wetter pattern to our west comes east mid to late month. But it will have to show up under 120hrs to be believable. Otherwise it’s just another version of the GFS 384 hr snowstorm that keeps getting pushed back.

 

 

[forkyfork]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

EPS just keeps reloading the ridge

maybe we can get the latest 80 on record

[qg_omega]

CC will move the winter belt north every year, it’s already moved 300 miles north in the past 15 years

[Dark Star]

15 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

None of this changes in our lifetimes.  To reverse CO2 levels in the atmosphere takes a lot of energy, and we do ‘t produce enough energy to do this, not even close.  And I mean, we don’t have the tech, nevermind money, to create this energy and still keep our own lights on.  Its a spectacular engineering challenge.  It may be possible in a few centuries but my guess is humans adapt in other ways instead.  It may be possible to slow CO2 levels increasingly using nuclear energy, but that will take a century and we need China to get onboard.  China is the largest producer of CO2 and their production has to expand until 2030 - its basically law . They build numerous coal fired electricity plants annually.  At one time it was more than one per month.  If they want to power their economy with coal, which they do, no one can stop them.  I’d love to send an army of Gretas to deal with them, trust me.  India too.  So in our lifetimes, forget about electric cars, or the new generation of youth, protests, or whoever, the challenges are immutable: engineering, economic, and political, and no one reading this will observe decreasing CO2 production globally, much less removal of CO2 in the atmosphere.  

throw on the energy use we are about to apply to AI - no shot.

this winter sucks.  

Well put.