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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Mt Pocono down to 32 with this more intense snow coming in. Should be a fun night there. 

Already at 530PM 1" of wet snow on the ground... and a little less on driveway at Mt Cobb, Exit 8 on I84. about 2000' elevation (Jefferson Township PA).  Models are too slow in the higher elevations for snow depth CHANGE, which is what I use as a base.  

HRRR 3K NAM look good but am a little cautious because 12z  EC nwas ot as robust as I'd like to see.---too much mixed snow sleet rain overnight in nw NJ. Temp here in Wantage at 537PM down to 37.4.  

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New York City has seen its biggest rainfall since August 18th when 2.29" fell. Periods of rain will continue overnight and through much of tomorrow.

The rain will likely end as a period of wet snow or flurries on Friday morning in the distant northern and western suburbs, especially hilly sections where some accumulations are possible. A heavy wet snowfall is likely in the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos.

The departing storm will likely be followed by a period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures. A stronger shot of cold could arrive to end the month or start December. The first week of December will likely feature generally below normal temperatures.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will develop has increased.

The SOI was +14.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.097 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.4° (3.4° above normal).

 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

New HRRR has snow on the N Shore, SW CT and Westchester. Here I doubt anything would accumulate but it’s a dynamic enough setup that there could be a burst at some point. 

We'll take our mood flakes on the N Shore should it occur.

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