Allsnow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i have blooming lantana Our areas will probably go into December now without a hard freeze. Growing season continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 3 minutes ago, mannynyc said: This thread is full of... optimism? Is everyone all right? I think we've all gone mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Who the hell has green grass? It hasnt rained in months my grass has been dormant since may lol 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Who the hell has green grass? It hasnt rained in months my grass has been dormant since may lol my grass is a very very faded green with tons of yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 10 minutes ago, mannynyc said: This thread is full of... optimism? Is everyone all right? we're about to break the drought and the nao is -2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Who the hell has green grass? It hasnt rained in months my grass has been dormant since may lol Sprinkler system ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 yeah all brown here. we've had a few freezes though but roses near the house hanging on lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 Mt Holly As colder air wraps in on the back side, expect rain to change to snow across the higher elevations and perhaps even a little mixing at lower elevations. Temperatures look marginally cold at the surface, however elevations above 1500 feet could pick up a decent amount of snow in Pocono region (Pocono plateau in particular). As of now, 1-4 inches of snow is forecast Thursday night into Friday for the Poconos, however depending on the track of the low and the wraparound moisture, amounts could be higher. Some of this could get more into the higher elevations of far northwestern New Jersey. Some snow may develop a little farther south and east, however accumulations should drop of to little or nothing. Overall, a tricky forecast as there are several moving parts. upton Colder air will move in Thursday night as the sfc low occludes and moves up into SW New England and the lower Hudson Valley, and the upper low moves overhead. This will introduce potential for wet snow across the Lower Hudson Valley and far interior NE NJ Thu night into Fri AM, especially in the higher elevations. The timing and location of this process will ultimately determine the extent of the colder air and where the most organized forcing sets up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 RGEM is advertising a highly anomalous ~522dm ULL E of LI... would bring heavy snow to NNJ verbatim even with marginal surface temps this is about as dynamic of a setup as you'll see regardless of the time of year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: RGEM is advertising a highly anomalous ~522dm ULL E of LI... would bring heavy snow to NNJ verbatim even with marginal surface temps this is about as dynamic of a setup as you'll see regardless of the time of year Yeah the 18z RGEM is eye catching. Could be snow anywhere those high UVVs set up just southwest of the SLP. Some slight model disagreement about placement, so it will be interesting to see how radar and satellite evolve on Thursday. To me this looks like widespread first flakes, but very localized heavy snow. NEPA seems to win regardless of model but hopefully NNJ and the Hudson Valley cash in some too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Breaking out the snowshoes for the Catskills on Friday/Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 GFS follows suit with heavy snow for Sussex and Orange as well as some for Putnam, Passaic, Westchester etc. Very good agreement now for a fairly localized snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 I'm starting to think a winter storm watch isn't out of the question for Sussex and Orange tonight or tomorrow. Probably not since temps below 1000ft are marginal and the localized nature of the event makes it susceptible to small model shifts. But you can't ignore what the data is showing. There are several indications for an impactful winter storm event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 This thread is full of... optimism? Is everyone all right?. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 26 minutes ago, eduggs said: I'm starting to think a winter storm watch isn't out of the question for Sussex and Orange tonight or tomorrow. Probably not since temps below 1000ft are marginal and the localized nature of the event makes it susceptible to small model shifts. But you can't ignore what the data is showing. There are several indications for an impactful winter storm event. 18z GFS is a big time event for all of Sussex county, NEPA, most of Orange County. The retrograding & stalling aspect of this event is giving me Snowicane vibes. Snow W of the Hudson w/ rain in New England 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 14 minutes ago, snywx said: 18z GFS is a big time event for all of Sussex county, NEPA, most of Orange County. The retrograding & stalling aspect of this event is giving me Snowicane vibes. Snow W of the Hudson w/ rain in New England That's a good analog for this kind of yin yang wrapped up low. FWIW, archived snowfall for the Snowicane event is wrong in Putnam County, NY, presumably due to sparse reporting in that area. Above about 500ft there was 12"+ with widespread 18-24" up a little higher back as far east as about Fahnestock State Park. East of there it dropped off rapidly. All maps and records I can find seem to indicate that the Hudson River was the dividing line, even though I know from first hand observation that that wasn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Our areas will probably go into December now without a hard freeze. Growing season continues With snow on the ground for some? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 I’m ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 3 hours ago, steve392 said: Will this finally put my perennials to winter sleep? Got plants still growing, new off shoots and new flowers... Bees still pollinating! Really? Everything long dead in westchester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: That’s a very cold look on the gefs to end the month into the start of December if true Raindancewx was more encouraging than most. Best case is a mismatch like 20/21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 34 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Really? Everything long dead in westchester Was outside with puppy watching bees pollinating my foxgloves which keep on producing. They, my sedum, royal vandals and roses keep producing new growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 3 hours ago, BxEngine said: Who the hell has green grass? It hasnt rained in months my grass has been dormant since may lol Mowed last week. Sprinklers had been off for weeks and removed them Thursday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Raindancewx was more encouraging than most. Best case is a mismatch like 20/21 We probably see some flakes on Friday down to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Nice soaker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice soaker Desperately needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 14 minutes ago, steve392 said: Was outside with puppy watching bees pollinating my foxgloves which keep on producing. They, my sedum, royal vandals and roses keep producing new growth. Had numerous hard freezes here going back probably 3 weeks now. No leaves on trees since Halloween which is normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 20 hours ago, TriPol said: Multiple large drones over Morristown, NJ Drones 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 21 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Drones Thanks for this, I saw 2 by me last night around 815 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 41 minutes ago, steve392 said: Mowed last week. Sprinklers had been off for weeks and removed them Thursday. Exactly what my lawn looks like currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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