November 2024

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

There is a town north of me in Orange County called Greenwood Lake. They have an out of control wild fire that looks like something from out west. It’s insane up there 

I drove to Weschester last night on I95 and the grass was brown.

[Brian5671]

18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not what Earthlight said. He said the blocking is going to happen. 

Wont matter if the dry spell continues...

[the_other_guy]

44 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

You’re going to need elevation for this one.

Its mid Nov. Take it if it comes

[SACRUS]

48 / 30.  Warmest two days of the next 10 or longer coming today and Monday.  Mid - upper 60s with the warmer spots to 70.    A bit cooler Tue/Wed before the trough and system approaches.  Best shot of rain with 0.50 or better Wed night - Thu.   Beyond that trough into the east with a bit cooler temps up to Thanksgiving, with dry returning.  Beyond there, near normal close to the month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 71 (1953)
NYC: 71 (1953)
LGA: 72 (1953)
JFK: 64 (2006)

Lows:

EWR: 18 (1933)
NYC: 19 (1933)
LGA: 27 (1959)
JFK: 26 (1959)

 

Historical:

 

1869 - Southwest winds of hurricane force swept the Berkshire and Green Mountains of New England causing extensive forest and structural damage. (David Ludlum)

1927 - A tornado cut a seventeen mile path across Alexandria and southeastern Washington, DC, injuring 31 persons. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded. A waterspout was seen over the Potomac River ninety minutes later. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1927: A tornado (at times to 260 yards wide) cut a seventeen-mile path through Alexandria, Virginia across the District of Columbia from the Navy yard to Benning Rd. & 19th St. NE and Northeast to East Riverdale, Maryland. This storm injured 31 people. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded.

1953 - The temperature at Minneapolis, MN, reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the Rockies produced 21 inches of snow at the Monarch ski resort in Colorado, with 14 inches reported at Steamboat Springs CO. Early morning thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Mary Esther FL with 4.43 inches of rain. Gale force winds over the Great Lakes Region gusted to 49 mph at Johnstown PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Another in a series of storms brought heavy snow to the mountains of the western U.S. Totals ranged up to 17 inches at Bob Scott Summit in Nevada. Winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. The Alta and Sundance ski resorts in Utah received 14 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Freezing temperatures overspread the southeastern U.S. in the wake of the severe weather outbreak of the previous two days. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Gilbert AR with a reading of 8 degrees. A fast moving storm blanketed the Great Lakes Region and Upper Ohio Valley with snow during the night. Totals ranged up to 12 inches at Pellston MI and Little Valley NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2013: An unusually powerful storm system spun up five dozen tornadoes from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. Two EF4 twisters struck Illinois, hitting the communities of Washington and New Minden. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

You’re going to need elevation for this one.

6z Euro would be nice especially for inland areas. Even the coast sees some flakes.

[forkyfork]

bit of a wetter trend last night. hopefully the blocking can force this far enough south

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is probably one of the most amplified patterns in terms of blocking near Alaska and Greenland that we have seen in mid-November. So it would be a really big disappointment if this didn’t produce our best event of the fall so far. Granted the bar is set very low to be the best of this fall.

 

Maybe one positive for the winter would be if we can get that Aleutian ridge as close to the pole as possible. 

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Finally

I have been smelling smoke during the week here in Brooklyn. 

All the grass have been turning brown. Very bad.

In addition to all the brown grass it is disheartening to drive by any of the local reservoirs around here.  They are low and getting lower.

Lowest I have seen in a long time.

[bluewave]

The Pacific Jet is finally going to come SE this week from the Aleutians.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs remains the driest but would still be .5+ for most with more north and east

[MJO812]

Finally an active pattern on the models going forward

[WX-PA]

Some might see the first flakes next weekend especially inland

[Allsnow]

Euro is a wet one for days 

[Stormlover74]

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is a wet one for days 

Also hammers the Catskills with snow

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Proximity to upper low and any triple point is key to who gets what and how much.  Still time for adjustments positive or negative.

Anything less than .50" will be a huge disappointment.

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is a wet one for days 

Pacific jet looking to ramp up. Things should improve going forward 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pacific jet looking to ramp up. Things should improve going forward 

Euro is very active going forward. We need the rain.

Interior areas have chances of snow.

[MJO812]

Maybe Earthlight is going to be right about the blocking. 

[snowman19]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is very active going forward. We need the rain.

Interior areas have chances of snow.

Those snow maps are completely bogus. Junk. Sell them like they are on fire. The soundings and that midlevel setup aren’t snow anywhere in this area but maybe the mountains of northern New England. Just be grateful it’s actually going to rain

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is very active going forward. We need the rain.

Interior areas have chances of snow.

Since we are burning I'd say all of us up here will take whatever we can get, rain/snow. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Since we are burning I'd say all of us up here will take whatever we can get, rain/snow. 

Of course

[IrishRob17]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Of course

That said, average first flakes for me is 11/6 with average first measurable snow of 11/8, so we are overdue up here. 

[Stormlover74]

Icon is ugly south of 78. Hopefully it's wrong 

[steve392]

I don't care what falls as long as it kills these wildfires.  So sick of the smell and haze. 

[eduggs]

CMC, ECM, and even GFS to a lesser extent suggests this is the first trackable snowstorm threat from NEPA across to the Taconics, primarily across higher elevations.

Advection of low level cold doesn't look ideal but some mixing down to lower elevation is possible as currently depicted. But from memory these tend to swing the organized banding through to the north and then we get downsloping on the NW flow with scattered showers.

[eduggs]

If you averaged the ECM's thermal profiles with the EC-AIFS surface and upper level low tracks you'd have a pretty significant elevation snowstorm for NNJ and possibly SENY. The AIFS is a great track but 925 temps are +1 to +2 whereas the regular ECM is 0 to -1F.

[Stormlover74]

NY, NJ brace for winter storm as Mother Nature threatens holiday travel with brutal weather

https://nypost.com/2024/11/17/us-news/ny-nj-brace-for-wintry-storm-as-mother-nature-threatens-holiday-travel-with-brutal-weather/

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s across much of the region. The dry weather will continue through the middle of the week. Rain is likely Wednesday night and Thursday. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.50" of rain. That rain will likely be followed by a period of below normal but not exceptionally cold temperatures.

With the remainder of November potentially becoming mainly dry following the rainstorm, parts of the region could challenge records for their driest fall and driest season on record. Select records are below:

New York City: Driest fall: 4.00", Fall 1908; Driest season: 3.92", Summer 1999
Newark: Driest fall: 4.21", Fall 1931; Driest season: 4.21", Fall 1931
Philadelphia: Driest fall: 2.37", Fall, 1922; Driest season: 2.37", Fall 1922
Wilmington, DE: Driest fall: 3.17", Fall 1922; Driest season: 3.17", Fall 1922

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +8.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.241 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2° (3.2° above normal).